Softs Report - Monday, June 21
COTTON
General Comments: Futures were higher on Friday in recovery trading, but lower for the week. Trends are mixed on the daily and weekly charts, but the weekly charts show an upside bias. The Fed signaled last week it was becoming more concerned about inflation. Many agricultural products including Cotton got hit hard as funds sold in response to the Fed statements. Cotton growing conditions have improved with rains reported in West Texas and the Delta. West Texas and the Delta are now too wet, but are expected to dry down a bit this week. Some very beneficial rains are in the forecast for late this week or this weekend in the Southeast. Production ideas are being impacted in just about all areas due to the weather extremes.
Overnight News: The Delta will get scattered showers and near to above normal temperatures and the Southeast will get scattered to isolated showers and near to above normal temperatures. Texas will have mostly dry conditions and near to above normal temperatures. The USDA average price is now 82.00 ct/lb. ICE said that certified stocks are now 166,187 bales, from 166,187 bales yesterday.
Chart Trends: Trends in Cotton are mixed. Support is at 8360, 8310, and 8180 July, with resistance of 8590, 8660, and 8740 July.
Image Source: Unsplash
FCOJ
General Comments: FCOJ closed lower and chart trends are still mixed on the daily charts but down on the weekly charts. The hurricane season is here and a big storm could threaten trees and fruit. The only storm near anything is in the Gulf but too far west to affect the state of Florida. An active season is anticipated but that does not mean a big and damaging storm is coming. It does mean that the market will be on alert if one does show up. It is dry in Brazil and trees and fruit are stressed, but rains are starting to be reported in the region. Mexican crop conditions in central and southern areas are called good with rains, but earlier dry weather might have hurt production. It is dry in northern and western Mexican growing areas but there is some potential for some rains over the next couple of weeks.
Overnight News: Florida should get scattered showers. Temperatures will average near normal. Brazil should get mostly dry conditions and above normal temperatures.
Chart Trends: Trends in FCOJ are mixed. Support is at 116.00, 11.300, and 112.00 July, with resistance at 120.00, 122.00, and 126.00 July.
COFFEE
General Comments: Both markets were higher to finish the week, but both markets were lower for the week. Trends on the daily and weekly charts have turned down in New York but London remains mostly in a trading range. The weekly New York chart shows that the price action last week was more of a correction in the longer-term up move than anything else and that futures are currently at weekly chart support levels. It looks like demand is much better for Robusta these days, and the offers are starting to increase as the Arabica harvest is expanding in Brazil. Wetter conditions are in the forecast for these areas this week. The daily charts show mixed trends. Good conditions are reported in northern South America and improved conditions reported in Central America. Colombia is having trouble exporting Coffee right now due to protests inside the country. Conditions are reported to be generally good in Asia and Africa.
Overnight News: ICE-certified stocks are higher today at 2.162 million bags. The ICO daily average price is now 136.25 ct/lb. Brazil will get mostly dry conditions or isolated showers with near to above normal temperatures. Central America will get scattered showers. Vietnam will see scattered showers.
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are mixed to down with objectives of 146.00, 140.00, and 135.00 July. Support is at 146.00, 143.00, and 140.00 July, and resistance is at 151.00, 155.00, and 157.00 July. Trends in London are mixed. Support is at 1560, 1530, and 1520 July, and resistance is at 1600, 1620, and 1690 July.
SUGAR
General Comments: New York and London were lower with London the leader on ample supplies of White Sugar available to the market and forecasts for improved growing conditions in Brazil. The weekly charts show downtrends in both markets. There is plenty of White Sugar available in India for the market and monsoon rains are promoting good conditions for the next crop. Southern growing areas of Brazil are getting some beneficial showers, with Parana and parts of Sao Paulo getting the best rains. Production has been hurt due to dry weather earlier in the year. Thailand is expecting improved production after drought-induced yield losses last year. Ethanol demand is returning to the market as more world economies open up after the pandemic.
Overnight News: Brazil will get mostly dry conditions or isolated showers. Temperatures should average near to above normal.
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are down with objectives of 1630 October. Support is at 1670, 1640, and 1610 October, and resistance is at 1710, 1760, and 1790 October. Trends in London are down with objectives of 404.00 and 402.00 August. Support is at 422.00, 418.00, and 416.00 August, and resistance is at 435.00, 440.00, and 445.00 August.
COCOA
General Comments: New York was lower in range trading last week but London was near unchanged. A strong US Dollar late in the week hurt New York prices and helped in London. The daily charts show sideways or downtrends in both markets. The harvests are over in West Africa and ports there have been filled with Cocoa. The weather has been a little too dry for best production prospects for the next crop, but above average rains were reported in West Africa last week. European demand has been slow. Asian demand is improved. North American is improved. The supplies are there for any increased demand.
Overnight News: Isolated showers are forecast for West Africa. Temperatures will be near to above normal. Malaysia and Indonesia should see showers. Temperatures should average above normal. Brazil will get mostly dry conditions and near to above normal temperatures. ICE certified stocks are sharply higher today at 5.708 million bags. ICE said that 0 contracts were posted for July delivery and that total deliveries for the month are now 198 contracts.
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are down with objectives of 2340 and 2280 September. Support is at 2350, 2330, and 2300 September, with resistance at 2400, 2450, and 2480 September. Trends in London are mixed. Support is at 1610, 1600, and 1590 September, with resistance at 1640, 1650, and 1670 September.
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