Softs Report - Monday, Feb. 14


General Comments: Cotton futures were little changed last week as futures held to the trading range formed at the beginning of February again. USDA cut export demand and increased ending stocks for the US on Wednesday. It’s been a demand market and futures have been correcting lower over the last few sessions in search of new demand. Ideas are that demand remains strong for US Cotton even with the weaker export sales reports over the last couple of weeks. Analysts say the Asian demand is still very strong and likely hold at high levels for the future.US consumer demand has been very strong as well despite higher prices and inflation. Good US production is expected for next year as planted area is expected to increase due to high Cotton prices and the expense of planting Corn. Chart trends are still mostly up in this market.

Overnight News: The Delta will get mostly dry conditions and near to above normal temperatures. The Southeast should get mostly dry conditions and near to below normal temperatures.Texas will have mostly dry conditions and near to above normal temperatures. The USDA average price is now 121.32 ct/lb.ICE said that certified stocks are now 617 bales, from 617 bales yesterday.

Chart Trends:  Trends in Cotton are mixed. Support is at 12500, 12210, and 12080 March, with resistance of 12880, 12960, and 13080 March.

Free Stock photos by Vecteezy


General Comments:  FCOJ was little changed last week as USDA cut its Florida production estimate again on Wednesday. Ideas are that the lost production was already in the market. Florida Mutual said that FCOJ inventories are down 30% from a year ago, and this just highlights the tight supply even more. There are more moderate weather forecasts for the coming week or more. The freezing temperatures reported last weekend did little to hurt the crops. Temperatures in Florida are still below normal, but much warmer than last weekend. The trends are down on the daily charts. Brazil has some rain and conditions are rated very good. Brazil production was down last year due to dry conditions at flowering time and then a freeze just before harvest. Mexico is rated in good condition.

Overnight News: Florida should get mostly dry conditions. Temperatures will average near normal. Brazil should get scattered showers and near to above normal temperatures.

Chart Trends: Trends in FCOJ are down with objectives of 133.00 March. Support is at 137.00, 135.00, and 133.00 March, with resistance at 144.00, 149.00, and 150.00 March.


General Comments: New York and London closed higher last week with the lack of offers from Brazil keeping prices well supported. Ideas continue that the next crop in Brazil is experiencing good growing conditions. Vietnamese producers have been selling and Brazil producers have sold some coffee for the next crop. Safras e Mercado said that producers in Brazil have sold well over 305 of the next crop already and the pacer is well ahead of a year ago. The dry weather and then the freeze in Brazil have created a lot of problems for the trees to form cherries this year. Big rains more recently in some Brazil growing areas have hurt cherry formation as well. The logistical situation in both Vietnam and Brazil has eased in recent weeks but is still considered difficult and expensive to manage.Brazil producers have sold most of the current year crop and are forward pricing for next year.Vietnam producers are also selling and some of the Robusta is going to the exchange in London as differentials have weakened. Vietnam is getting scattered showers on the coast but dry conditions inland.The rest of Southeast Asia should get scattered showers in the islands and mostly dry conditions on the mainland.Production conditions for the next crop in Colombia are not good due to too much rain.Vietnam exported 163,324 tons of coffee in January, down 3.6% from December last year.

Overnight News: ICE-certified stocks are unchanged today at 1.035 million bags.The ICO daily average price is now 216.11 ct/lb.Brazil will get scattered showers with near normal temperatures.Central America will get mostly dry conditions.Vietnam will see scattered showers near the coast and mostly dry conditions inland.

Chart Trends: Trends in New York are mixed to up with no objectives.Support is at 250.00, 245.00, and 243.00 March, and resistance is at 260.00, 263.00 and 266.00 March.Trends in London are up with objectives of 2290 March. Support is at 2250, 2220, and 2200 March, and resistance is at 2300, 2360, and 2380 March.


General Comments:  New York and London were little changed in range trading last week and found support on ideas of reduced production from Brazil and hopes for increased demand.There have been reports of improved growing conditions for the crops in central-south areas of Brazil. Showers will continue into much of this week and crops should benefit from the return of moisture to the region.Hot and dry weather is expected for southern areas after the rains pass this week.Ideas are that the supplies are available from India and Thailand as harvests there are off to a good start and reports indicate that India has been selling. Demand is still thought to be good, but supplies could increase as less ethanol is produced.Philippines has tendered to buy 200,000 tons of White Sugar.

Overnight News: Brazil will get scattered showers. Temperatures should average near to above normal.

Chart Trends: Trends in New York are mixed. Support is at 1750, 1740, and 1710 May and resistance is at 1820, 1860, and 1900 May.Trends in London are mixed.Support is at 485.00, 477.00, and 472.00 May and resistance is at 494.00, 496.00, and 500.00 May.


General Comments Both markets closed higher last week on ideas of bad weather in Ivory Coast.The weather is generally good for Southeast Asia but some producers in West Africa are worried about the dry weather that has been noted for the last couple of weeks. Ideas are that demand will continue to improve.Both Ivory Coast and Ghana are reporting deteriorating weather as it is now mostly sunny and dry.Some farmers want more rain for the best Spring harvest results.   Ghana arrivals are now 383,000 tons so far this marketing year, from 681,000 tons last year.

Overnight News: Mostly dry conditions are forecast for West Africa.Temperatures will be near to above normal.Malaysia and Indonesia should see showers.Temperatures should average above normal.Brazil will get scattered showers and near normal temperatures. ICE-certified stocks are a little lower today at 4.87 million bags.

Chart Trends: Trends in New York are up with no objectives. Support is at 2690, 2620, and 2590 March, with resistance at 2800, 2830, and 2860 March.Trends in London are up with objectives of 1800 and 1810 March.Support is at 1780, 1740, and 1710 March, with resistance at 1810, 1830, and 1850 March.

Disclaimer: A Subsidiary of Price Holdings, Inc. – a Diversified Financial Services Firm. Member NIBA, NFA Past results are not necessarily indicative of future results. Investing in ...

How did you like this article? Let us know so we can better customize your reading experience.


Leave a comment to automatically be entered into our contest to win a free Echo Show.