COTTON       

General Comments: Cotton futures closed lower on Friday and last week partly in response to the USDA WASDE estimates. USDA showed a slight increase in production estimates and unchanged demand and ending stocks estimates. The weekly export sales report was very strong. The new Covid variant is expected to spread quickly but produce mild reactions but the demand concerns are there as China might buy less now. Chart patterns are sideways. Demand has fallen off with the rally in the US Dollar but US prices are reported to be still well below those in China. Trends are starting to turn down on the weaker demand ideas. Analysts say the Asian demand is still very strong and likely hold at high levels for the future.US consumer demand has been very strong as well despite higher prices and inflation. Good US production is expected.

Overnight News: The Delta and Southeast will get isolated to scattered showers and above normal temperatures. Texas will have mostly dry conditions with isolated showers possible on Friday and above normal temperatures. The USDA average price is now 104.15 ct/lb. ICE said that certified stocks are now 8,007 bales, from 8,007 bales yesterday. ICE said that 68 notices were posted for delivery against December contracts and that total deliveries for the month are now 78 contracts.

Chart Trends:  Trends in Cotton are down with no objectives. Support is at 10350, 10150, and 10040 March, with resistance of 10920, 11080 and 11350 March.

Photo by Jason Leung on Unsplash

FCOJ

General Comments: FCOJ was lower on Friday and trends are still sideways as futures remain locked in a range trade. USDA cut its Oranges production estimate but this was anticipated by the trade. Demand ideas were hurt here and around the world by the return of Covid induced lockdowns in Europe and the discovery of a new Covid variation in Africa. The variant seems to spread rapidly but produces mild effects so much of the concern has been lessened for now. The weather remains generally good for production around the world. Brazil has some rain with more in the forecast and flowering is likely. Brazil production was down last year due to dry conditions at flowering time and then a freeze just before harvest. Weather conditions in Florida are rated mostly good for the crops with a couple of showers and near-normal temperatures. Mexican crop conditions in central and southern areas are called good with rains. Northern and western Mexico is rated in good condition. The Florida Citrus Movement and Pack report showed that inventories are still almost 16% below last year at this time.

Overnight News:  Florida should get isolated showers. Temperatures will average above normal. Brazil should get mostly dry conditions and below normal temperatures.

Chart Trends: Trends in FCOJ are mixed. Support is at 126.00, 123.00, and 120.00 January, with resistance at 132.00, 135.00, and 137.00 January.

COFFEE 

General Comments: New York closed lower and London closed mostly lower Friday on improved weather for Brazil Arabica areas and as the logistical and production problems in Brazil and Vietnam remain important. The big rains could have damage trees and caused flowers and cherries to fall. The lack of Coffee available to deliver against contracts remains a factor and the cheapest Coffee for buyers is often at the exchanges. Containers are not available in Vietnam or in Brazil to ship the Coffee. Cherry pickers are hard to find in Vietnam due to Covid problems. Covid has also returned to Vietnam and now the rest of the world and could be a factor in interrupting shipments. Brazil also has limited amounts of Coffee available after bad weather at flowering time and then a freeze before the harvest got underway. Production conditions for the next crop in Colombia are not real good. Scattered to isolated showers are now in the forecast for Southeast Asia and for Vietnam after big rains before.

Overnight News: ICE-certified stocks are higher today at 1.605 million bags. The ICO daily average price is now 201.32 ct/lb. Brazil will get mostly dry conditions with near to below normal temperatures. Central America will get scattered showers. Vietnam will see scattered showers. ICE NY said that 0 contracts were tendered against December futures and that total deliveries for the month are now 0 contracts.

Chart Trends: Trends in New York are mixed. Support is at 228.00, 224.00, and 221.00 March, and resistance is at 242.00, 248.00, and 252.00 March. Trends in London are mixed. Support is at 2330, 2300, and 2250 January, and resistance is at 2460, 2490, and 2520 January.

SUGAR               

General Comments: New York and London closed a little higher on Friday in trading tied to stronger price action in world petroleum and financial markets. Weaker production ideas in Brazil have supported futures to a large degree. Weaker demand ideas were still being caused by reports of new lockdowns in Europe as the Covid returns there and reports of a new variant discovered in Africa. However, the effects of the new variant are reported to be mild so the fears were less. The daily charts show that trends are mostly up. Reports indicate that consumer demand has returned to the market but not in a big way. Ideas are that the supplies are out there but it will take a stronger price to get them into the market. Ideas are that Indian producers and exporters are willing sellers above 20.50 cents. Processors in Brazil are refining the cane for Ethanol more than Sugar right now and this trend is expected to continue due to the relative price spreads. The reduced production potential from Brazil for the current harvest is still impacting the market as cane production suffered last season. India is not offering as world prices are still below domestic prices.

Overnight News: Brazil will get mostly dry conditions. Temperatures should average near to below normal.

Chart Trends: Trends in New York are up with objectives of 2040, 2110, and 2170 March. Support is at 1950, 1920, and 1900 March, and resistance is at 2000, 2030, and 2040 March. Trends in London are up with objectives of 533.00 March. Support is at 508.00, 506.00, and 503.00 March, and resistance is at 520.00, 523.00, and 527.00 March.

COCOA

General Comments: New York closed higher and London closed lower on Friday as the US Dollar moved higher and certified stocks in New York moved lower. The return of the Coronavirus in Europe as well as the new variant found in Africa were the primary reasons to sell but are mostly part of the price now. Much of the selling came on ideas of weaker demand caused by the reports. Ideas are that demand will only improve slightly if at all and production in West Africa appears to be good this year. Both Ivory Coast and Ghana are reporting improved weather as it is now mostly sunny with some scattered showers around.  Some farmers want more rain for the best Spring harvest results.

Overnight News: Isolated showers are forecast for West Africa. Temperatures will be near to above normal. Malaysia and Indonesia should see showers. Temperatures should average above normal. Brazil will get scattered showers and near-normal temperatures. ICE-certified stocks are lower today at 4.974 million bags.ICE said that 0 notices were posted for delivery against December contracts and that total deliveries for the month are now 1,303 contracts.

Chart Trends: Trends in New York are mixed. Support is at 2420, 2380, and 2330 March, with resistance at 2500, 2520, and 2530 March. Trends in London are mixed. Support is at 1660, 1630, and 1610 March, with resistance at 1710, 1730, and 1740 March.