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Cotton

General Comments: Cotton closed near unchanged yesterday after trading lower earlier in the session, and trends remain down on the daily charts. Ideas are that the US could be headed into a recession and cause demand to be soft. Ideas of weaker demand due to economic problems in Asia continue, but prices are supported by ideas of tight supplies here in the US and around the world. There are still many concerns about demand from China and the rest of Asia due to the slow economic return of China in the world market. There are production concerns about Australian and Indian Cotton as both countries are likely to suffer the effects of El Nino starting this Fall.

Overnight News: The Delta will get isolated showers and above normal temperatures. The Southeast will see isolated showers and near to above normal temperatures. Texas will have scattered showers and near to above normal temperatures. The USDA average price is now 79.92 ct/lb. ICE daily certified stocks are now 58,785 bales, from 58,205 bales yesterday.

Chart Trends: Trends in Cotton are mixed to down with objectives of 82.10 and 81.70 December. Support is at 82.00, 80.80, and 79.00 December, with resistance of 84.70, 85.70 and 86.50 December.

Cotton On Call:
Call Sales Change From Previous Week Unfixed Call Purchases Change From Previous Week At Close
10/13/2023 Change From Previous Week
December 2023 36,725 -2,431 26,282 -1,404 120,006 -10,056
March 2024 22,114 3,406 4,598 639 65,542 2,143
May 2024 8,695 1,126 664 452 33,759 3,767
July 2024 11,465 1,427 362 15 14,310 1,770
October 2024 0 0 0 0 8 1
December 2024 5,483 456 28,847 229 18,313 9
March 2025 158 0 0 0 330 6
May 2025 44 0 0 0 16 0
July 2025 114 61 0 0 3 0
December 2025 375 0 981 110 4 0
Totals 85,173 4,045 61,734 41 252,291 -2,360
1 Merchants with futures positions of 100 or more contracts in one future.

FCOJ

General Comments: FCOJ closed higher yesterday in range trading, and the trends on the daily charts are sideways as the market seems to consolidate just below the highs set in the last week or so. Reports of short supplies in Florida and Brazil are around. Futures are also being supported in forecasts for an above average hurricane season that could bring a storm to damage the trees once again. Historically low estimates of production due in part to the hurricanes and in part to the greening disease that have hurt production, but conditions are significantly better now with scattered showers and moderate temperatures. Nelsen said that retail prices are as high as they have ever been at $9.18/gallon. Demand is the lowest since 2001 at 24.08 million gallons for the four weeks ending on October 7.

Overnight News: Florida should get isolated showers. Temperatures will average near normal. Brazil should get mostly dry conditions and near to above normal temperatures.

Chart Trends: Trends in FCOJ are mixed. Support is at 373.00, 369.00, and 366.00 November, with resistance at 392.00, 398.00, and 404.00 November.

Coffee

General Comments: New York and London closed higher again yesterday on what appeared to be speculative buying. Trends are up in both markets. Light rains are now b3ing reported in central and southern growing areas of Brazil and conditions are called good. Demand for Robusta and lower quality Arabicas remains strong. The lack of offers from Asia, mostly from Vietnam but also Indonesia remains a main feature of the market, but the offers are starting to improve with the Vietnam harvest progressing and the US Dollar moving higher. Offers from Brazil and other countries in Latin America should be increasing but prices are considered a little cheap to create much selling interest from producers and the differentials offered have been very high. These are moderating as the new harvest comes to the market.

Overnight News: ICE certified stocks are lower today at 0.421 million bags. The ICO daily average price is now 156.84 ct/lb. Brazil will get mostly dry conditions with near to above normal temperatures. Central America will get mostly dry conditions. Vietnam will see scattered showers.

Chart Trends: Trends in New York are up with no objectives. Support is at 160.00, 155.00, and 153.00 December, and resistance is at 164.00, 167.00 and 170.00 December. Trends in London are up with no objectives. Support is at 2400, 2360, and 2330 November, with resistance at 2500, 2530, and 2570 November.

DJ Brazil 2023-2024 Coffee Crop 56% Sold — Market Talk
1157 ET – Brazilian coffee producers have sold 56% of the country’s projected crop for the 2023-2024 growing season as of Oct. 17, says Gil Barabach, an analyst at agricultural consultancy Safras & Mercado, in a research note. That’s up from 50% a month earlier and slightly behind the 60% level on the same date a year earlier, Safras says. Safras estimates a 2023-2024 coffee crop of 66.7 million 132-pound bags for the season. Many growers of the arabica variety of coffee are holding back on sales unless they need cash, Barabach says.

Sugar

General Comments: New York closed mixed and London closed lower yesterday in consolidation trading. Trends are mixed for both markets on the daily charts. Little has changed with the fundamentals. There are still forecasts for and reports of rain in Brazil after a spell of very hot and dry conditions and this has delayed loading of ships., The market continues to see stressful conditions in Asian production areas. The Brail rains is underway now, but showers have been light and scattered. The Asian dryness is still the main feature. Many growing areas in India have been dry, and exports have indi84ted that production has suffered. The government there now says it will have more than enough production for the domestic demand but will limit exports to help control inflation. There are also worries about the Thai and Indian production potential due to El Nino. Offers from Brazil are still active but other origins are still not offering, and demand is still strong. Mexico is hot and dry and there are increasing concerns about production.

Overnight News: Brazil will get mostly dry conditions. Temperatures should average near to below normal. India will get mostly dry conditions and below normal temperatures.

Chart Trends: Trends in New York are mixed. Support is at 2690, 2670, and 2620 March and resistance is at 2770, 2790, and 2810 March. Trends in London are up with objectives of 753.00 and 761.00 December. Support is at 729.00, 725.00, and 719.00 December, with resistance at 750.00, 753.00, and 756.00 December.

Cocoa

General Comments: New York and London closed higher yesterday, and the trends are still up in both markets. The EU grind data was stronger than expected and was down 0.9% from last year. Ivory Coast exports are down 10% so far this year. Arrivals at ports are 8.5% less than last year. The main crop harvest comes into focus and as farmers in West Africa report good pod development. The supply and demand situation remains bullish. Ideas of tight supplies remain based on more reports of reduced arrivals in Ivory Coast and Ghana continue, Midcrop production ideas are lower now with diseases reported in the trees due to too much rain that could also affect the main crop production.

Overnight News: Isolated showers are forecast for West Africa. Temperatures will be near normal. Malaysia and Indonesia should see scattered showers. Temperatures should average near normal. Brazil will get isolated showers and near to above normal temperatures. ICE certified stocks are lower today at 4.751 million bags.

Chart Trends: Trends in New York are up with objectives of 3800 December. Support is at 3610, 3580, and 3500 December, with resistance at 3700, 3750, and 3800 December. Trends in London are up with no objectives. Support is at 3170, 3050, and 3000 December, with resistance at 3260, 3290, and 3320 December.

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