COTTON

General Comments: Cotton closed lower again yesterday on ideas of weaker demand due to economic problems in Asia. The weather has improved in Texas and most growing areas are in good condition. The US Dollar was sharply lower and still in a down trend and there are still many concerns about demand from China and the rest of Asia.  Forecasts for showers are still showing in forecasts for West Texas to Oklahoma and Kansas and are expected to be beneficial.  Ideas are that the world economic problems were fading into the background as the US stock market has held strong and as the Chinese economy gets better after all of the Covid lockdowns.

Overnight News:  The Delta will get isolated showers and near to above normal temperatures.  The Southeast will see isolated showers and near to above normal temperatures.  Texas will have scattered showers and near normal temperatures.  The USDA average price is now 76.18 ct/lb.  ICE daily certified stocks are now 19,472 bales, from 17,918 bales yesterday.

Chart Trends:  Trends in Cotton are down with no objectives.  Support is at 79.90, 79.50, and 78.60 July, with resistance of 82.60, 84.50 and 85.50 July.

Image Source: Pixabay

FCOJ

General Comments:  FCOJ closed limit up yesterday as short term down trend turned up on the charts.  Futures remain supported by very short Oranges production estimates for Florida.  Historically low estimates of production due in part to the hurricanes and in part to the greening disease that have hurt production, but conditions are significantly better now with scattered showers and moderate temperatures.  The weather remains generally good for production around the world for the next crop including production areas in Florida that have been impacted in a big way by the two storms seen previously in the state.  Brazil has some rain and conditions are rated good.

Overnight News:  Florida should get isolated showers.  Temperatures will average near normal. Brazil should get mostly dry conditions and near to above normal temperatures.

Chart Trends:  Trends in FCOJ are mixed to up with objectives of 268.00 and 278.00 July.  Support is at 258.00, 253.00, and 249.00 July, with resistance at 270.00, 280.00, and 290.00 July.

COFFEE

General Comments:  Both markets closed higher on less thana expected export volumes from Brazil and as traders were more concerned about a lack of fresh coffee from Vietnam available to the market right now.  A sharply lower US Dollar also supported both markets.  Trends are now down for the Dollar.  Brazil offers are starting to increase and could have impacted the futures price yesterday.  There are reports of good rains and dry weather mixed in for Arabica production in Brazil with high production expectations.  The Arabica harvest has started and offers of Arabica from Brazil are increasing.  There are still tight Robusta supplies for the market amid strong demand for Robusta, but the Brazil harvest is in the market now and is expected to take some of the demand.  Producers in Vietnam and Indonesia are said to have almost nothing left to sell and producers in Colombia are also reported to be short Coffee to sell.  The market really needs big offers from Brazil to sustain any down side movement.  Southeast and south Asian producers could see another tough production year this year due to the effects of El Nino.  Brazil May exports were 2.4 million bags in May, down 17% from last year.  Arabica exports were 1.99 million bags, down 21% from last year, and Robusta exports were 131,689 bags, down just 0.1% from last year.

Overnight News:  ICE certified stocks are lower today at 0.546 million bags.  The ICO daily average price is now 175.65 ct/lb.  Brazil will get mostly dry conditions with near to above normal temperatures.  Central America will get mostly dry conditions.  Vietnam will see scattered showers.

Chart Trends:  Trends in New York are mixed.  Support is at 185.00, 181.00, and 179.00 July, and resistance is at 189.00, 194.00 and 196.00 July.  Trends in London are mixed to up with no objectives.  Support is at 2730, 2670, and 2610 July, with resistance at 2850, 2880, and 2910 July

SUGAR

General Comments:  Both markets were higher on tight world supplies and despite news reports that Brazil production increased in the last half month.  The US Dollar was sharply lower yesterday and trends are down for the Dollar. India will restrict imports until the first half of next year.  The current year export quota is already gone and the government has no plans to allow for additional exports at this time.  The market is still hurt by good growing and harvesting conditions in Brazil but supported by tight current supplies. The production is not there to meet the demand in many countries, with only Brazil among the major producers looking to have a good crop.  Indian production is less this year and Pakistan also has reduced production.  Thailand also has a smaller crop.  Asian countries could face another year of short production as El Nino returns after years of La Nina.  European production is expected to be reduced again this year.  Chinese production could be the lowest in six years due to bad growing conditions.  Unica said that the center south Sugarcane crush as 46.2 million tons, up 5.5% from last year.  Mills produced 2.2million tons of Sugar, up 25% from last year, and 2.1 billion liters of ethanol, up 2.4% from last year.

Overnight News:  Brazil will get mostly dry conditions.  Temperatures should average near to below normal.  India will get mostly dry conditions and below normal temperatures.

Chart Trends:  Trends in New York are mixed.  Support is at 2440, 2410, and 2380 October and resistance is at 2570, 2590, and 2640 October.  Trends in London are mixed.  Support is at 670.00, 661,00, and 644.00 October, with resistance at 693.00, 698.00, and 706.00 October.

COCOA

General Comments:  Both markets closed higher again yesterday and closed at new highs for the move.  A sharply lower US Dollar supported buyers in New York.  Ideas of tight supplies remain based on more reports of reduced arrivals in Ivory Coast continue, Talk is that hot and dry conditions reported earlier in Ivory Coast could curtail main crop production, and main crop production ideas are not strong.  Midcrop production ideas are strong due to rain mixed with some sun recently reported in Cocoa areas of the country.

Overnight News:  Isolated showers are forecast for West Africa.  Temperatures will be near normal.  Malaysia and Indonesia should see scattered showers.  Temperatures should average near normal.  Brazil will get isolated showers and near to above normal temperatures.  ICE certified stocks are lower today at 5.621 million bags.

Chart Trends:  Trends in New York are up with objectives of 3190 July.  Support is at 3130, 3090, and 3050 July, with resistance at 3270, 3300, and 3330 July.  Trends in London are up with objectives of 2600 July.  Support is at 2530, 2470, and 2440 July, with resistance at 2620, 2650, and 2680 July.

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