Softs Report - Friday, July 23

COTTON
General Comments: Futures were higher on demand concerns as ideas of strong demand continue. The weekly export sales report was called positive for prices. Analysts say the demand is still very strong and likely to hold at high levels for the future. Production ideas are being impacted in just about all areas due to the weather extremes. Demand was increased in the weekly export sales report and is expected to stay strong as the world economy rebounds from the Covid times.
Overnight News: The Delta will get isolated showers and near to above normal temperatures and Southeast will get scattered showers and near normal temperatures. Texas will have isolated showers and near normal temperatures. The USDA average price is now 86.16 ct/lb. ICE said that certified stocks are now 103,973 bales, from 103,995 bales yesterday.
Chart Trends: Trends in Cotton are mixed to up with objectives of 9130, 9250 and 9460 December. Support is at 8880, 8630, and 847==590 December, with resistance of 9120, 9180, and 9240 December.

Image by zanna-76 from Pixabay

FCOJ
General Comments: FCOJ closed higher yesterday and made new highs for the move on news of freezing temperatures a couple of nights ago in Sao Paulo Brazil that could have affected the production of Oranges in the state. Weather conditions in Florida are rated mostly good for the crops. The Atlantic is turning more active although nothing has formed to threaten the state of Florida yet. A big storm could threaten trees and fruit. Brazil is reported to be cold and dry. Mexican crop conditions in central and southern areas are called good with rains, but earlier dry weather might have hurt production. Northeastern Mexico areas are too dry, but the rest of northern and western Mexico are rated in good condition.
Overnight News: Florida should get scattered showers. Temperatures will average near normal. Brazil should get mostly dry conditions and near normal temperatures. ICE said that 0 notices were posted for delivery against July contracts and that total deliveries for the month are now 0 contracts.
Chart Trends: Trends in FCOJ are mixed to up with objectives of 142.00 September. Support is at 134.00, 130.00, and 128.00 September, with resistance at 138.00, 141.00, and 144.00 September.

COFFEE
General Comments: New York and London closed much higher on freezing temperatures in Brazil growing areas earlier this week. Freezing temperatures were reported in much of Minas Gerais and Parana and also in Sao Paulo. It is not yet known how extensive the damage was but ideas are that a significant part of the cop got hurt. It is flowering time for the next crop and the flowers were frozen and will drop off the trees. London remains firm overall on some speculative and commercial buying tied to dry weather in Southeast Asia and on reports that Vietnamese producers were not selling or delivering. Some of the buying yesterday was tied to the big rally in New York as well. Temperatures are now turning warmer in Brazil. There were some losses created by a hot and dry start to the growing season that impacted flowering and initial cherry development and a little Coffee was lost during the freeze event a couple of weeks ago. Increasing showers are coming this week to Southeast Asia and tree condition should be improved. Good conditions are reported in northern South America and good conditions reported in Central America. Colombia is having trouble exporting Coffee due to protests inside the country. Conditions are reported to be generally good in parts of Asia and parts of Africa.
Overnight News: ICE certified stocks are lower today at 2.187 million bags. The ICO daily average price is now 149.00 ct/lb. Brazil will get mostly dry conditions with near normal temperatures. Central America will get scattered showers. Vietnam will see scattered showers.
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are up with no objectives. Support is at 180.00, 178.00, and 168.00 September, and resistance is at 195.00, 198.00 and 201.00 September. Trends in London are up with no objectives. Support is at 1780, 1750, and 1710 September, and resistance is at 1890, 1920, and 1950 September.

SUGAR
General Comments: New York and London were mixed as there have not been reports of major damage to crops so far from the reports of freezing weather in Brazil. Reports of damaged cane in Brazil from the recent cold snap were heard and pictures of the damage were tweeted, but that was several days ago now and there has not been any real information sent out since the event. Brazil temperatures are now moderating. Mills were also processing for more Ethanol and less for Sugar than expected and this trend should continue even with weaker world petroleum prices. London has been the weaker market on ample supplies of White Sugar available to the market and as demand for White Sugar is less. There is plenty of White Sugar available in India for the market and monsoon rains are promoting good conditions for the next crop. The Indians are selling with or without a subsidy from the government. Thailand is expecting improved production. Sugar demand is said to be weak. Ethanol demand is returning to the market as more world economies open up after the pandemic. The daily charts show that both markets are holding to recent trading ranges but are pressing against the upper end of those ranges.
Overnight News: Brazil will get mostly dry conditions. Temperatures should average near to above normal.
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are mixed. Support is at 1710, 1670, and 1640 October, and resistance is at 1780, 1790, and 1820 October. Trends in London are mixed. Support is at 446.00, 442.00, and 440.00 October, and resistance is at 452.00, 455.00, and 466.00 October.

COCOA
General Comments: New York and London closed mixed yesterday in consolidation trading, with New York higher and London mostly a little lower. It appears that the supply fundamentals are now part of the price structure for Cocoa. The European grind data was released early last week and showed a strong recovery from the Covid times. Asian data was released on Friday and also showed increased demand, although not as much of an increase than showed for Europe. The daily charts show short term sideways to down trends in New York and in London and the fundamentals remain bearish despite the increased demand. Ports in West Africa are filled with Cocoa right now. The weather has had above average rains in West Africa and crop conditions are rated good.
Overnight News: Isolated showers are forecast for West Africa. Temperatures will be above normal. Malaysia and Indonesia should see showers. Temperatures should average above normal. Brazil will get mostly dry conditions and near to above normal temperatures. ICE certified stocks are lower today at 5.816 million bags.
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are mixed. Support is at 2260, 2240, and 2210 September, with resistance at 2350, 2370, and 2390 September. Trends in London are mixed. Support is at 1550, 1510, and 1480 September, with resistance at 1630, 1660, and 1670 September.

Disclaimer: A Subsidiary of Price Holdings, Inc. – a Diversified Financial Services Firm. Member NIBA, NFA Past results are not necessarily indicative of future results. Investing in ...

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