Softs Report - Friday, Dec. 17


General Comments: Cotton futures closed sharply higher to limit up yesterday on mostly stronger financial and Crude Oil markets. Ideas are that demand is strong for US Cotton right now. The weekly export sales report was strong again, but less than last week.  The new Covid variant is expected to spread quickly but produce mild reactions but the demand concerns are there as China might buy less now.  Chart patterns are now up after the limit up day yesterday.  Analysts say the Asian demand is still very strong and likely hold at high levels for the future.  US consumer demand has been very strong as well despite higher prices and inflation.  Good US production is expected.

Overnight News:  The Delta and Southeast will get isolated to scattered showers and near to above normal temperatures. Texas will have mostly dry conditions with isolated showers possible on Friday and above normal temperatures.  The USDA average price is now 107.07 ct/lb.  ICE said that certified stocks are now 8,007 bales, from 8,007 bales yesterday.  ICE said that 0 notices were posted for delivery against December contracts and that total deliveries for the month are now 78 contracts.

Chart Trends:  Trends in Cotton are up with objectives of 11190 and 11720 March.  Support is at 10780, 10540, and 10350 March, with resistance of 12080, 11350 and 11450 March.

Photo by Jason Leung on Unsplash


General Comments:  FCOJ was higher yesterday and trends are still sideways. The weather remains generally good for production around the world.  Brazil has some rain and conditions are rated very good.  Brazil production was down last year due to dry conditions at flowering time and then a freeze just before harvest.  Weather conditions in Florida are rated mostly good for the crops with a couple of showers and warm temperatures.  Mexican crop conditions in central and southern areas are called good with rains. Northern and western Mexico is rated in good condition.  The Florida Citrus Movement and Pack report showed that inventories are still almost 16% below last year for this week.

Overnight News:  Florida should get isolated showers.  Temperatures will average above normal.   Brazil should get mostly dry conditions and below normal temperatures.

Chart Trends:  Trends in FCOJ are up with no objectives.  Support is at 135.00, 132.00, and 129.00 January, with resistance at 143.00, 145.00, and 149.00 January.


General Comments:  New York and London closed a little lower yesterday as damaging weather for Brazil Arabica areas and as the logistical and production problems in Brazil and Vietnam are an increasing part of the price structure.  The dry weather and then the freeze in Brazil have created a lot of problems for the trees to form cherries this year.  The lack of Coffee available to deliver against contracts remains a factor and the cheapest Coffee for buyers is often at the exchanges.  Containers are not available in Vietnam or in Brazil to ship the Coffee.  Cherry pickers are hard to find in Vietnam due to Covid problems.  Brazil also has limited amounts of Coffee available after bad weather at flowering time and then a freeze before the harvest got underway.  Production conditions for the next crop in Colombia are not real good.  Scattered to isolated showers are now in the forecast for Southeast Asia and for Vietnam after big rains before.

Overnight News:  ICE certified stocks are lower today at 1.554 million bags.  The ICO daily average price is now 204.80 ct/lb.  Brazil will get mostly dry conditions with near to below normal temperatures.  Central America will get scattered showers.  Vietnam will see scattered showers.  ICE NY said that 0 contracts were tendered against December futures and that total deliveries for the month are now 55 contracts.

Chart Trends:  Trends in New York are mixed.  Support is at 237.00, 232.00, and 228.00 March, and resistance is at 242.00, 248.00 and 252.00 March.  Trends in London are mixed.   Support is at 2400, 2350, and 2330 January, and resistance is at 2460, 2490, and 2520 January[JS1] .


General Comments:  New York and London closed unchanged to a little higher yesterday on a weaker US Dollar and reduced production from Brazil.  Weaker production ideas in Brazil were seen again yesterday as UNICA released its second half of November data.  Weaker demand ideas were still being caused by reports of new lockdowns in Europe as the Covid returns there and reports of a new variant discovered in Africa.  However, the effects of the new variant are reported to be mild so the fears were less.  The daily charts show that trends are sideways.  Reports indicate that consumer demand has returned to the market.  Ideas are that the supplies are out there but it will take a stronger price to get them into the market.  Ideas are that Indian producers and exporters are willing sellers above 20.50 cents.  Processors in Brazil are refining the cane for Ethanol more than Sugar right now and this trend is expected to continue due to the relative price spreads.  The reduced production potential from Brazil for the current harvest is still impacting the market as cane production suffered last season.

Overnight News:  Brazil will get mostly dry conditions.  Temperatures should average near to below normal.

Chart Trends: Trends in New York are mixed to down with objectives of 1920, 1880, and 1830 March.  Support is at 1920, 1900, and 1880 March, and resistance is at 1960, 1990, and 2000 March.  Trends in London are mixed to down with objectives of 497.00 and 485.00 March.  Support is at 501.00, 497.00, and 491.00 March, and resistance is at 509.00, 513.00, and 516.00 March.


General Comments:  New York was firm and London closed a little lower yesterday on currency considerations.  Ideas are that demand will only improve slightly if at all and production in West Africa appears to be good this year.  Both Ivory Coast and Ghana are reporting improved weather as it is now mostly sunny with some scattered showers around.  Some farmers want more rain for the best Spring harvest results.

Overnight News:  Isolated showers are forecast for West Africa.  Temperatures will be near to above normal.  Malaysia and Indonesia should see showers.  Temperatures should average above normal.  Brazil will get scattered showers and near normal temperatures.  ICE certified stocks are much lower today at 4.810 million bags.

Chart Trends:  Trends in New York are up with objectives of 2550 and 2630 March.  Support is at 2500, 2470, and 2420 March, with resistance at 2550, 2600, and 2650 March.  Trends in London are mixed to up with objectives of 1720, 1760, and 1850 March.  Support is at 1680, 1660, and 1620 March, with resistance at 1730, 1740, and 1770 March.

Disclaimer: A Subsidiary of Price Holdings, Inc. – a Diversified Financial Services Firm. Member NIBA, NFA Past results are not necessarily indicative of future results. Investing in ...

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