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Silver has posted notable gains so far in 2025. Earlier in the year, Financial Sense Wealth Management CIO Chris Puplava alerted readers of a potential generational buying opportunity in silver when it was trading near $30/oz. As this is being written, silver has now more than doubled to a high of $66.75, validating the core thesis: when long-term relative-value extremes unwind, the move can be powerful—and fast. That said, silver and other commodities can be volatile, and such investments may not be suitable for all investors; individuals should consider their objectives and risk tolerance before investing.

But Puplava’s message now isn’t simply “silver up.” It’s what comes next for the US dollar, which may be the biggest macro lever not only for precious metals, but for a much broader shift in asset allocation heading into 2026.

The Setup: A Rare 100x Gold-to-Silver Ratio

The high-conviction setup Chris first noted in April 2025 was the kind that only shows up a few times in a career: a gold-to-silver ratio near 100.

Looking across a century of gold and silver data, he notes we’ve only seen gold trade at about 100 times silver two or three other occasions, each followed by periods where silver dramatically outperformed gold.

(Click on image to enlarge)

Source: Bloomberg, Financial Sense Wealth Management

That’s why Puplava labeled it “generational”. In his words, when presented with an opportunity like that, “you have to take advantage”—and the firm increased exposure in client portfolios.

As he noted at the time (see Silver: A Generational Buying Opportunity?):

With gold 100 times costlier, silver looks undervalued, potentially rallying…to $50 over the next 12-18 months. Record short interest in the iShares Silver Trust (SLV) and Sprott Physical Silver Trust could fuel a short-covering rally if the historically stretched gold-silver ratio indeed favors a catch up in silver prices. Given the above, I’ve increased our firm’s silver exposure, viewing it as a potentially rare long-term opportunity.

Now that the catch-up he mentioned has occurred—and silver has greatly outperformed gold since that time—the job becomes risk management: are we seeing “too much of a good thing,” or is the longer-term picture still bullish for silver and metals more broadly?

Historical Analysis of the Gold-Silver Ratio

After silver’s run, the gold-to-silver ratio has come down to roughly 67—around levels that previously preceded periods when gold began outperforming silver.

The key question, Puplava says, is whether the ratio simply reverts to “normal,” or whether it overshoots (as extremes often do). His view: overshoots are common. Historically, the ratio has reached far lower levels:

• Around 33 in 2011
• Around 40 in the late 1990s

To translate that into price implications, Puplava offers a simple way to frame upside scenarios:

• If gold were flat and the ratio went to 60, silver would be roughly $71/oz.
• If the ratio revisited the 2011 extreme (~33) with gold flat, silver would imply roughly $130/oz.

He immediately adds the practical caveat: gold is unlikely to sit still if silver is moving that far. In his view, if silver is pushing toward those targets, gold likely rises too, which implies silver would need to move even higher to reach those lower ratios (he cites ballpark figures like $75 or even $150 in some scenarios).

Bottom line: Puplava remains bullish on silver—and on gold. And he hints the story may expand beyond precious metals into commodities more broadly heading into 2026.

The Parabolic Move: A Short-Covering Engine That May Fade

One of the big accelerants behind silver’s surge, Puplava believes, has been short covering.

To gauge positioning, he tracks short interest in the world’s largest silver ETF, iShares Silver Trust (SLV). Going back to 2006, he highlights that short positioning was significant in 2011 when silver went parabolic from roughly $20 to $50—and that episode ultimately marked a top.

Recently, he saw something even more extreme:

• SLV short interest reached an all-time high, reportedly north of 80 million shares short
• The latest (lagged) reading he cited was still around 44 million shares short in late November
• He suspects the number is now much lower after the breakout

Puplava’s interpretation: the breakout to new highs was “most likely a short covering event.” That matters tactically—because once the forced buying runs its course, volatility can rise and near-term fuel can diminish, even if the broader bull thesis remains intact.

Adding to near-term turbulence, the COMEX raised margin requirements by 10% on silver futures, a change that can amplify swings as traders adjust leverage.

The Real Catalyst: A Potential Secular Shift in the US Dollar

Puplava’s strongest conviction isn’t about a one-week chart in silver—it’s about a secular macro pivot: the US dollar may be near a major inflection point, and that could shape the next multi-year cycle across metals, commodities, and global equities.

(Click on image to enlarge)

Source: Bloomberg, Financial Sense Wealth Management

He points to the last major precious-metals bull cycle:

• The prior bull market in silver began around 2001 (silver near $4/oz) and ran into 2011 (near $50/oz).
• That decade aligned with a major top in the dollar around 2001 and a major bottom around 2011.
• As a rough rule: precious metals and commodities often move inversely to the dollar over secular swings.

Since 2011, Puplava characterizes the dollar as being in a 14–15 year bull market, with the post-2011 uptrend now colliding with a key resistance area. The next few weeks to months, he argues, may determine whether:

• The dollar breaks higher and the secular uptrend persists, or
• The dollar breaks its long-term trend line, potentially signaling a transition into a secular bear market

If that break occurs, Puplava’s target is a move toward the low 90s on the dollar index—an area that acted as support in 2018 and 2021.

(Click on image to enlarge)

Source: Bloomberg, Financial Sense Wealth Management

His portfolio implication is blunt: a true secular shift in the dollar is not a “tweak around the edges.” It’s the kind of regime change that should trigger meaningful allocation changes.

Asset Allocation Through the Dollar Lens

Puplava frames portfolio management around two dominant variables:

1. Dollar trend
2. Interest rate trend

On the dollar, he emphasizes how many “relative performance” trades map to it:

US equities vs. foreign equities

• In strong-dollar periods (e.g., the 1990s), US markets often outperform foreign markets.
• In weak-dollar regimes (e.g., the early 2000s), the S&P 500 often underperforms emerging and developed markets.

Puplava argues US market leadership over the last decade lines up with the post-2011 dollar uptrend. If the dollar breaks down, he expects emerging and developed markets to outperform US equities.

He also points to a structural reason: index composition. The S&P 500 is heavily weighted to tech, media, and telecom (over 40% in his framing) and relatively light in commodities (energy roughly 2–3%, materials about 2%). In contrast, markets like Canada are far more commodity-heavy—helping explain why foreign markets can shine when commodities are in favor and the dollar is weak.

Stocks vs. commodities

Using the 1970s as an example, Puplava notes that dollar weakness aligned with commodity outperformance versus US stocks (e.g., the S&P lagging commodity indices). When the dollar rallied, the relationship flipped.

The Next Rotation? Mega-Cap vs. Small-Cap, Growth vs. Value

Puplava closes by connecting the same dollar framework to equity style leadership.

He references Ed Yardeni’s call to underweight the “MAG7” and favor the “other 493” S&P names, and adds that large-cap vs. small-cap leadership has historically tracked major dollar regimes:

• Strong dollar (1990s): large caps tended to outperform small caps
• Weak dollar (early 2000s): large caps underperformed small caps as the tech bubble unwound
• Post-2011 dollar bull: renewed period of large-cap leadership, with the tech-led surge accelerating after 2018

If the dollar’s long bull market ends, Puplava believes it could finally mark the turning point to overweight small caps, alongside potential rotations toward value and away from the most crowded growth leadership.

His takeaway: the dollar’s next decisive move may influence multiple allocation decisions at once—growth vs. value, small vs. large, domestic vs. foreign, stocks vs. commodities, and even stocks vs. bonds.

What Puplava Is Watching Now—and How He’s Positioned

Puplava’s posture is clear:

• Near-term, silver’s move likely included a short-covering impulse that can fade, and margin increases can increase volatility.
• Medium- to long-term, he remains bullish precious metals.
• Strategically, he believes the dollar bull market is on its last legs and expects the dollar to ultimately fall—positioning the firm into areas that historically benefit from that regime (commodities and select non-US exposures among them).

He also emphasizes disciplined risk management: if the dollar stabilizes and the secular uptrend reasserts itself, the firm may respond with a commensurate reduction in anti-dollar hedges.

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