We kicked off the day with S&P Global Composite PMI Final and S&P Global Services PMI Final at 8:45 A.M., ISM Services PMI, ISM Services Business Activity, ISM Services Employment, and ISM Services New Orders at 9:00 A.M., Export Inspections at 10:00 A.M., 3-Month & 6-Month Bill Auction at 10:30 A.M., Loan Officer Survey at 1:00 P.M., Dairy Products at 2:00 P.M., Crop Progress at 3:00 P.M., and Fed Daly Speech at 4:00 P.M.

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After Friday’s anemic Jobs number, Chevron announced it is moving it’s headquarters to Houston. California’s high taxes and California’s Clean Energy policies which is a war on combustible fueled powered energy. Houston adds another Fortune 500 Company, which has 245 such companies, trailing New York City and Chicago. The August Labor report showed that the US economy added 114,000 jobs in July the fewest in 3 months and well below expectations of 175,000 jobs. Incredibly, its only the 4^th jobs report in the last 2 years have seen blockbuster nonfarm payroll figures revised lower. As nonfarm payrolls in the establishment survey declined, the unemployment rate rose to a 33-month high or the mostsince October 2021, of 4.3%. This should raise the odds of a fed rate cut in September of potentially .5% with another cut later in the year. I believe the Fed should throw in a surprise rate cut like China and other countries fighting inflation The Biden/Harris economy is not working, nor sustainable and is killing the middleclass, they were supposed to champion.

Hurricane Debby now a Category 1 is expected to make landfall in Florida by 5:00 A.M. this morning moving faster than the 8:00 A.M. prediction. This event will affect Georgia and Carolina’s in this weather event that should last throughout the week. Heavy rains and storm surge has reminded hurricane watchers of hurricane Harvey. At the moment the tide is going out helping somewhat, but Debby will change that as she moves in. Ag Resources (ARC) reported as of last night;Central US Mostly Warm/Dry Next 5 Days; Extended Range Forecast Complicated By Debby. Models Favor Rain in NE/Dakotas in 6-10 Day Period: The EU & GFS models are in broad agreement into August 12^th . Debby is expected to move across the Eastern US Seaboard this week. Heat/dryness blanket much of the Central US with max temps to reach into the upper 90’s/low 100’s across the Southern and Central Plains every day from Say-Monday. High temps in the mid-upper 90’s sneak into Mo/IA. Temp moderation is projected thereafter into late next week, but whether this is a lasting trend will hinge upon tropical storm/hurricane for changeable forecasts as tropical season is here.  14-17^th . Odds are high August will be much warmer/drier than normal, but be prepared,  activity from mid-August onward. The forecast allows abnormal warmth to resume across the Plains & Midwest August.

Global Corn Market Recovers Non-US FOB Premiums Score New Seasonal Highs: Corn markets ended firm on Friday, with Ukrainian & South American premiums up another $.5-,6/Bu-further improving the US’s position in the global marketplace. Updated USDA cash price data leaves ethanol plant revenue at/slightly above all costs, and ARC’s thesis ahead of key production reorts is that corn has found value below $4.00 basis December. Confirmation of a national yield above 184-185 BPA is needed to sustain bearish trends beyond mid-August. Future yield and acreage estimates are key. We have seen a dramatic non-US fob premiums rally. The Ukrainian market is particularly has transitioned from finding demand to rationing it in a matter of weeks! Analysts doubt bulk short covering occurs until USDA’s August report and when Pro Farmer’s yield estimates are available, but a bottom is forming. The managed money net short position on July 30 was 295,000 contracts, vs. 319,000  the previous week. China’s dilemma is do they take cheaper US corn this autumn. Other market triggers with a lot at stake with Iran expected imminent attack on Israel escalating the war in the Middle East. Israeli Defense Forces (IDF) expects the attack today. Also, the global stock markets are getting clobbered due to Friday’s lousy jobs number with Japan suffering their first huge 1-day loss since October 1987. We all know how that worked out. The world sees what the administration doesn’t or they can pretend and lie things are good. War and US recession may force the Fed to be more aggressive rate cuts.

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