We kickoff the day with Challenger Job Cuts at 6:30 A.M., Export Sales, Initial Jobless Claims, Nonfarm Productivity QoQ Prel, Unit Labour Costs, QoQ Prel, Continuing Jobless Claims, and Jobless Claims 4-Week Average at 7:30 A.M.,  S&P Global Manufacturing PMI Final at 8:45 A.M., ISM Manufacturing PMI, ISM Manufacturing Employment, Construction Spending MoM, ISM Manufacturing New Orders, and ISM Manufacturing Prices at 9:00 A.M., EIA Natural Gas Storage at 9:30 A.M., 4-Week & 8-Week Bill Auction at 10:30 A.M., 15-Year & 30-Year Mortgage Rate at 11:00 A.M., Fats & Oils, Cotton System, and Grain Crushings at 2:00 P.M., and Fed Balance Sheet at 3:30 P.M.

Ahead of tomorrow’s employment report the ADP payroll data showed a further decline in the number of private jobs added in July. Private businesses in the US added 122,000 jobs during the month, which was 33,000 (21%) fewer than in June. It was also the lowest job growth since January when private payrolls rose 111,000. The ADP data has consistently been below the nonfarm payroll data over the last 2 years. Since January 2022, the ADP private payrolls data has shown job growth of 8.875 million, or 18% more jobs. Yet the US labor market is back in balance and any hint of slowing US job growth could get the US Central Bank to cut rates more quickly.

On the Weather Front a well-defined tropical wave is producing a large area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms over Peurto Rico, the Virgin Islands, the northern Leeward Islands, and the adjacent waters of the southwestern Atlantic and northeastern Caribbean Sea. A Tropical Depression could form this weekend or early next week over the Gulf of Mexico or far southeastern Atlantic ocean, including in the vicinity of Florida. Formation chance in 48 hours is low 10% and the 7-Day medium 60%. Central US Forecast Weather Trends Wetter/Cooler in mid-August; Nearby Forecast Consistent: The major forecasting models are in agreement that a pattern shift looms beginning Aug 7-8. A low pressure Trough develops aloft Canada and slides into the Northern US by mid-month. This allows for cooler than normal temps in all but the southern Plains and triggers a corridor of moderate rainfall across the E Plains & Midwest in the 11to15-day period. Confidence in details is low is low as tropical activity has outsized influence on air flows, but longer- term guidance is broadly favorable. Cooler temps are welcomed, but it remains that crop development in SD, ND, and MN is noticeably behind schedule. Heat will be absent from the principal Corn Belt in the 8 to14-day period. Surplus soil moisture will be established in N IL and IN amid the coming t-storm clusters.

Falls to Long Term   Uptrend Line at $381 September; Managed Money Corn Short Soars to a New Record; End Users Buy Corn at 4-Year Low: Corn futures fell to fresh contract lows as an onslaught of selling persisted for a 4^th day. Corn attempted a mid-session bounce, but selling returned near the close with December settling at 399 ¾, a new contract low close. The bearish focus has held on improved Midwest weather and record large US corn yield potential. Traders are discussing private US August yield potential with expectations that NASS will release a US corn yield of 183-185 BPA. It’s the sheer size of the US corn crop that has pressured price to new lows.  However, most that bearish input has been discussed and digested. The monthly corn chart shows that price has reached a level of long-term support. The US corn yield is yet to be determined and Asian traders are wide eyed at China’s flooding and potential crop damage. 43% of China’s corn area has received 9-24” of rain during July and flood losses are growing. China offered $277 Mil dollars in disaster aid which confirms the dire nature of excessive July rainfall. Paris corn futures closed higher on excessive rain. US crop is CHEAP, however, the global void of exports could raise US offers.

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