Should We Be Worried About Food Shortages In The U.S.?
Aerial shot of a milling tractor (Tom Fisk/Pexels).
Higher Food Prices And Shortages?
Our system has been betting on higher food prices since earlier this year, and of course, the war in Ukraine has put upward pressure on food and energy. But now one of our Twitter correspondents warns we may have food shortages in America as well. Let's start with the case for higher prices, then consider his warning of shortages and what to do about them.
Betting On Higher Food And Energy Prices
A month before Russia's invasion of Ukraine, our system's top names had shifted to an energy and food focus, as we noted in a post here at the time (Why Civilizations Collapse).
Biden's welcome to Pittsburgh was a bridge collapse. Fittingly symbolic of our broader collapse. $CORN $UCO $OIH $RWM https://t.co/H8R2hMWZbi
— Portfolio Armor (@PortfolioArmor) January 29, 2022
In that post, we noted we had two oil E&P stocks (Laredo Petroleum (LPI) and Antero Resources (AR)), two oil ETFs (ProShares Ultra Bloomberg Crude Oil (UCO) and VanEck Vectors Oil Services (OIH)), and a coffee ETN (iPath Series B Bloomberg Subindex Total Return (JO)) and a corn ETF (Teucrium Corn Fund (CORN)) in our top ten names.
Screen capture via the Portfolio Armor on 1/28/2022.
Since then, the energy and corn names have ripped higher (though coffee has cooled off a bit).
Of course, Russia's invasion of Ukraine has played a role here. In addition to being one of the world's top exporters of wheat (along with Ukraine), Russia is also one of the top exporters of agricultural inputs such as oil, natural gas, and fertilizer. The war, plus the sanctions regime in response to it, has raised food and energy prices and raised the prospect of food shortages in countries such as Egypt, which are dependent on wheat imports. America, as an agricultural superpower, seemed less likely to suffer food shortages.
A String Of Disasters at Food Processing Plants and Warehouses
Our correspondent Ben Braddock brought up another risk factor: a string of disasters at food production plants and warehouses, mainly in the U.S.
Several very large food processing plants in the US have blown up/burned down in the past few days https://t.co/hhcvIlCNt4
— Dr. Benjamin Braddock (@GraduatedBen) April 20, 2022
Last month, Wal-Mart distribution center https://t.co/Bpl5XBj9as
— Dr. Benjamin Braddock (@GraduatedBen) April 20, 2022
— Dr. Benjamin Braddock (@GraduatedBen) April 20, 2022
Taylor Farms, Salinas CA https://t.co/JuyAgnC5r4
— Dr. Benjamin Braddock (@GraduatedBen) April 20, 2022
Meanwhile Union Pacific is throttling rail shipments of fertilizer…during prime planting season https://t.co/7D9kbeFwnt
— Dr. Benjamin Braddock (@GraduatedBen) April 20, 2022
@yolowen mentions yet another - in New Hampshire, https://t.co/eVldUYMMSw
— Dr. Benjamin Braddock (@GraduatedBen) April 20, 2022
There’s more https://t.co/EoxglZTYmp
— Dr. Benjamin Braddock (@GraduatedBen) April 20, 2022
Should We Be Worried About This?
One respondent says we shouldn't.
Several very large food processing plants in the US have blown up/burned down in the past few days https://t.co/hhcvIlCNt4
— Dr. Benjamin Braddock (@GraduatedBen) April 20, 2022
Warehouse fires are nothing new. They happen every year. You just have not been paying attention. The actual scale of the loss is miniscule compared to the size of the actual food supply.
— Just Some Guy Man (@Teach_2_Win) April 20, 2022
Another commenter draws a comparison to the panic about black churches burning down a few years ago.
Who invited this guy and his facts?
— Garadje (@garadje) April 20, 2022
Lol but yeah that was my first thought, warehouses and plants go up all the time because there are so many.
In Case There Will Be Shortages
Twitter user "Remnant" offers some suggestions just in case we do have food shortages.
If you haven't already, go to the store and, at the very least, buy a big bag of rice and some dry beans. Canned anything is good too. Go as calorie-dense as possible.
— 🔺ʀᴇᴍɴᴀɴᴛ. (@remnantposting) April 21, 2022
Bare minimum, you want to store the bags inside of hard containers to make it harder for pest to get at them. Putting the unopened bags of rice and bean in a 5gal bucket with a lid, or a Rubbermaid type container with a lid is fine.
— 🔺ʀᴇᴍɴᴀɴᴛ. (@remnantposting) April 21, 2022
Plan for 2,000/cal per person per day. You won't actually want to eat that much, as you can survive on less to stretch the food, but it gives you headroom.
— 🔺ʀᴇᴍɴᴀɴᴛ. (@remnantposting) April 21, 2022
The more you can get the better, minding budget and storage space limitations. Shoot for at least a couple of weeks' worth.
It might be really late to be thinking about all of this if you haven't done it already, but better late than never. Do what you can, while you still can.
— 🔺ʀᴇᴍɴᴀɴᴛ. (@remnantposting) April 21, 2022
I don't mean to alarm anyone. But if the day comes when you need this and you haven't done it, you're in deep shit.
These seem like reasonable, and fairly inexpensive precautions.
Disclaimer: The Portfolio Armor system is a potentially useful tool but like all tools, it is not designed to replace the services of a licensed financial advisor or your own independent ...
more
Comments
