We kicked off the day with MBA 30-Year Mortgage Rate, MBA Mortgage Applications, MBA Mortgage Market Index, MBA Mortgage Refinance Index, and MBA Purchase Index at 6:00 A.M., GDP Growth Rate QoQ 2^nd Est, GDP Price Index QOQ 2^nd Est, Goods Trade Balance Adv, Retail Inventories Ex Auto MoM Adv, Wholesale Inventories MoM Adv, Core PCE Prices QoQ 2^nd Est, GDP Sales QoQ 2^nd Adv, PCE Prices QoQ 2^nd Est, and Real Consumer Spending QoQ 2^nd Adv at 7:30 A.M., EIA Energy Stocks and NY Fed Treasury Purchases 22.5 to 30 yrs. at 9;30 A.M., 17-Week Bill Auction at 10:30 A.M., Fed Bostic Speech at 11:00 A.M., Fed Collins Speech at 11:15 A.M., Fed Williams Speech at 11:45 A.M., and Dairy Products Sales at 2:00 P.M.

Photo by Waldemar on Unsplash

Our prayers go out to all that were affected by the rough weather storms and high winds blowing wildfires out of control in Oklahoma & Texas Panhandle with fires growing and evacuations are in progress. And with more chaotic weather we had a dramatic swing in temperatures overnight as a deep low pressure Trough reaches into the Northern Plains/Southern Canada. This fuels high winds and bitterly cold temps across the US Plains and Midwest today. Lows are projected in the single digits and teens as far south as KS,MO, and IA, with record warmth on Tuesday. The intensity of the cold front will be short lived as forecast show extreme temps will persist to alternate into mid-March. Warmth comes back by Fri/Sat, and temps in the Corn Belt will reach into the 60’s and 70’s Sat-Tues. Winter-like readings are forecast during the second half of next week. Meaningful precipitation continues to favor the Eastern Midwest and Delta/Southeast. A wetter pattern will be needed across the US HRW Belt by late March. Let’s pray for rain and less wind to our friends in the Oklahoma-Texas Panhandle.

South American weather patterns has eyebrows raised with a dry pattern. Meaningful precipitation will be confined to N Argentina/S Brazil into March 8^th . Dryness in Argentina isn’t viewed as threatening with lack of excessive heat forecasted. AG Resources (ARC) also notes that following 4-5 days of complete dryness, spotty showers will return to Mato Grosso and far Northern Brazil in the 6-10 day period. Concern in the near-term is centered on far Southern Mato Frosso, Goias, and Mato Grosso do Sul, roughly 35% of Brazil’s safrinha corn belt. 10-day rainfall there will total only 11-30% of normal. Heat develops as soils dry. There’s still time for regular rain to return to N Brazil but time runs short after mid-March. Forecast changes will be monitored every 6 to 12 hours moving forward for hints that the Brazilian monsoon exits much earlier than normal.

CBOT grain futures are lower ahead of March First Notice Day tomorrow. Traders are aware that another week of poor US weekly export sales is ahead while deliveries against March futures is in focus. CBOT futures are lower with corn holding better ground than soybean and wheat on the talk of private Chines buyers may have secured a few cargoes of US corn off the PWN. A FAS daily sales announcement is awaited for confirmation. Most traders and analysts expect a weaker to mixed trading session. Tuesday’s open interest showed a wheat decline of 5,783 contracts with March open interest falling 11,960 contracts. Corn open interest fell by 15,856 contracts with March open interest down to 64,111 contracts and soybean open interest falling 18,757 contracts with March futures down to 21,586 contracts. March futures in soybean oil & meal have liquidated, other than mop up work today., the March exodus has ended.

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