March Liquidation & Government Shutdown Headline. The Corn & Ethanol Report

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We kickoff the day with Building Permits Final & Building Permits MoM Final at 7:25 A.m., New Home Sales and New Home Sales MoM at 9:00 A.M., Dallas Fed Manufacturing Index at 9:30 A.M., Export Inspections at 10:00 A.M., 2-Year Note Auction and 6-Month Bill Auction at 10:30 A.M., 3-Month Bill Auction & 5-Year Note Auction at 12:00 P.M.

We come in swinging this week discussing newer details that cast more hurry up and wait with a government shutdown and traders jockeying for a position concerning when they’re confident the lows are in. Ag Resources (ARC) reporting that weather in South America’s forecast remains consistent with helping soaking rainfall across Central and Northern Argentina into next week., while net soil moisture loss emerges in key areas of Brazil’s safrinha corn belt. The pattern sustains a rather swift pace of soybean harvest, but it is imperative that regular rainfall returns to Brazil by mid-March to prevent soil erosion in subsoil moisture. The EU model’s 10-day forecast of normal precipitation, temperatures in Mato Grosso do Sul, Mato Grosso, and Goias reach in the mid 90’s next week. The 11-15 day guidance allows rain to return to Mato Grosso and Goias bit this must be pulled into the 10-day outlook over the weekend to increase confidence in rain. ARC also notes, the newly released EU model weekly guidance allows warmth & dryness to continue in N Brazil into March 16th . The market won’t place its focus on N Brazil for another 1-2 weeks, but the odds are high that the monsoon begins to sputter prior to safrinha pollination in late March and April.

The grains are coming in weaker this morning after starting a tad higher on last night’s open, then selling came in. Traders want to make sure that the March cash contract liquidation has ended in corn and soybeans before covering shorts or rollover existing contracts. Algorithms and AI trading systems are sellers of rallies as there is no technical chart based indication of a bottom. And finally another hurdle… Government… Traders are also now concerned that the US government will partially close as lawmakers struggle to find a budget deal to fund departments and agencies prior to the weekend. Majority leader Schumer (D-NY) warned on Sunday that a shutdown of USDA would threaten food support programs for the impoverished and block critical loans to US farmers before spring seeding. Congress and the financial markets have held their collective breath several times since September as Congress enacts short-term funding legislation. The pressure is building on US Hose Republicans for a 3rd continuing resolution deal. House GOP hardliners argue that any new funding should include policy provisions that Democrats so far are resisting.


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