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If you can’t get countries from buying Russian oil and refinery product then bomb the refineries.

Diesel oil crack spreads surged as concerns in the market that Ukraine’s attacks on Russian oil infrastructure will stop diesel exports after they’ve already restricted gasoline imports. To learn more about crack spreads, Call Phil Flynn 888-264-5665. Russia hassuffered significant hits to its refineries, and a halt of diesel export would send shockwaves through Europe. Meanwhile President Donald Trump sent a message to Russia when he said that he thinks Ukraine can claw back every inch of territory seized by Russia. That’s a notable shift in tone, throwing a bit of gasoline on the fire, especially after his administration was already pressing the EU to cut off Russian oil and gas even faster earlier this month. Trump said that he thinks, “Ukraine, with the support of the European Union, is in a position to fight and WIN all of Ukraine back in its original form. With time, patience, and the financial support of Europe and NATO, the original Borders from where this War started, is very much an option.”

These comments by President Trump raises the stakes to Putin as the president is suggesting that Russia’s incursion into Ukraine will be for nothing. In other words, President Trump who originally was willing to give Russia some Ukrainian territory in return for an end to the war, now suggests with that window has closed. Also, President Trump when asked the question, said that NATO countries should shoot down Russian jets that violate airspace.

This morning, First Squawk reported that the Kremlin has stated the process of normalizing relations with the United States is progressing more slowly than desired. Russia has expressed its intention to expedite efforts to eliminate irritants in bilateral ties and noted that there are numerous opportunities for mutually beneficial cooperation. Russia remains open to advancing these areas with the United States.

According to the Financial Times, Ukraine’s ongoing drone strikes have reduced Russian refining capacity by more than a million barrels per day, pushing diesel exports to their lowest level since 2020. On the battlefield, Ukraine’s General Staff described heavy combat, emphasizing that, “Ukrainian defenders steadfastly hold back the onslaught of the occupiers, inflicting significant losses on the enemy.”

In the last 24 hours, Russia carried out “one missile and 53 air strikes, used two missiles, and dropped 105 guided bombs,” as well as launching 4,970 attacks, including “122 from multiple launch rocket systems” and 5,995 kamikaze drones. Airstrikes struck Zaporizhzhia and Kherson, while Russian forces assaulted several fronts. Ukrainian troops repelled 64 attacks in Pokrovsk, 33 in Novopavlivka, and 17 in Toretsk, with additional fierce fighting in Kupiansk, Lyman, and Kramatorsk, according to official military reports.

In the meantime, U.S. oil supply continues to fall as the American Petroleum Institute (API) reported that crude supplies fell by 3.82 million barrels. Yet for the second week in a row we saw a substantial increase of 1.910 million barrels of distillate inventories. Once again the US is starting to build those supplies to try to alleviate a shortage as we get closer to winter. Gasoline inventories fell by 1.050 million barrels not a big surprise as we are in the shoulder season and we’re flipping back to those beautiful cheaper blends of normal gasoline.

Natural gas prices are attempting to find support as warmer weather forecasts persist. According to Jodi Shafto from Energy Intelligence, market participants are focusing on the November contract, while October natural gas futures on the Nymex swung back and forth ahead of Friday’s expiration. Tuesday afternoon saw October futures tick higher, but the gains were tenuous due to reduced seasonal demand, which increases the likelihood of oversupply this winter. At the same Chris Newman at Energy Intelligence reported that the U.S. energy sector is entering what analysts call a new “load growth era” after decades of flat electricity demand, driven by an unprecedented buildout of data centers and LNG export facilities. Natural gas forward curves also are signaling producer confidence in meeting surging demand.

EBW Analytics says things aren’t looking as strong for the medium-term right now. Over the last week, DTN cut 33 gas heating degree days (gHDDs) from its October weather forecast, which is a pretty big change. Plus, looking at the past decade, every time end-of-season storage went above 3,900 Bcf, November prices ended up averaging below $3.00 per MMBtu. While there’s a chance that weak LNG could bounce back by about 15 Bcf a week over the next month or so, EBW notes that the fundamentals are still solid heading into mid-winter. But for now, mild weather in early October is making it tough for prices to move up, even though there’s some underlying support.

Weather’s going to be a bigger factor as we get closer to heating season. Still, with storage sitting high above 3,900 Bcf and production picking back up, it’s tough to see NYMEX futures climbing much in the near or medium term—at least until things warm up a bit. That’s why the key may be downloaded the Fox Weather ap.

Fox Weather is reporting that, “A Hurricane Warning has been issued for the Azores as Hurricane Gabrielle continues to barrel across the Atlantic toward the islands and European coastline as a monster Category 3 hurricane. The Azores sit some 850 miles off the coast of Portugal, and forecasters have warned people there to keep an eye on the forecast as the hurricane moves closer to the archipelago in the North Atlantic. Hurricane conditions, including torrential rain, strong winds and a dangerous storm surge, are expected to begin within the Hurricane Warning area by Thursday night and Friday morning, according to Fox Weather.

Behind Hurricane Gabrielle, the National Hurricane Center (NHC) is also monitoring invests 93L and 94L in the Atlantic for likely tropical development in the coming days.

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