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Oil prices are still locked in its trading range but getting a little bit of a boost after reports that Estonia’s airspace was violated according to Reuters. The Estonian government stated that three Russian military jets entered Estonia’s airspace for 12 minutes on Friday, describing the event as an “unprecedentedly brazen” incursion. This is part of a series of recent military actions by Russia that have raised concerns among NATO members.

Plus, the oil market seems to be a bit skeptical that we’re going to see significant sanctions on Russian oil as NATO seems to be not clear as to what actions to be taken. Politico reports that Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy pushed for “strong sanctions” against Moscow as he heads to New York this week where he expects to meet with U.S. President Donald Trump. “Russia must feel the consequences of what it is doing. Sufficient counteraction is needed to force them to seek peace,” Zelenskyy said on social media on Sunday. “Strong sanctions are an instrument that will stop” Russia becoming a threat to EU countries, he said. Ukraine is defending itself from Russian attacks “almost every day,” the Ukrainian president said. Thousands of foreign components have been found in Russian weapons — coming for Europe, the United States and Japan, he added.

Meanwhile, four Western nations have thrown diplomatic fuel on the fire by officially recognizing a Palestinian state. President Trump does not think this is the right time to do that especially when Hamas still holds hostages.

Iraq is pumping out more barrels now that OPEC+ loosened its grip on quotas. Reuters reports that Iraq has increased oil exports following the gradual unwinding of voluntary production cuts under an OPEC+ agreement, the country’s state oil marketer SOMO said on Sunday. Eight OPEC+ members agreed to boost oil production by 137,000 barrels per day from October, continuing increases that began in April after years of output cuts.

Oil prices are still coming to grips with the massive drop in crude supplies but a bigger than expected increase in distillate. The market seems to be in a wait and see mode and as we are heading into the slower demand period of the year. The market is fairly stable as it waits to see how geopolitical developments and supply and demand play out. Call Phil Flynn for further input 888-264-5665.

EBW Analytics reported that October natural gas tested as high as $3.168 intraday Wednesday—before collapsing 31.1¢/MMBtu (-10%) to Friday’s intraday low at $2.857 in the aftermath of a bearish EIA storage report featuring a 90 Bcf build and bringing filling storage back into market focus. Chances for upside cannot be ruled out. Weekend production figures remain soft with Marcellus spot prices signaling producer shut-ins and DTN favors a chilly October outlook. Still, a narrow route higher suggests the bulk of risks remain lower into Friday’s final settlement.

Fox Weather is reporting that Hurricane Gabrielle could rapidly intensify into major hurricane as storm spins precariously close to Bermuda. Hurricane Gabrielle is starting to get its act together as it churns over the open waters of the Atlantic, and forecasters say the storm is expected to rapidly intensify and could strengthen into a major hurricane on Monday.

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