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Ed Yardeni has been out front on one of the decade’s more optimistic market narratives: a “Roaring 2020s” powered by economic resilience, strong corporate earnings, and productivity gains tied to the digital revolution and AI.

In a recent FS Insider interview, Yardeni reaffirmed two of his major forecasts: 7,700 for the S&P 500 in 2026 and 10,000 by 2029. But what caught our attention even more was his parallel forecast for gold to possibly reach $10,000 an ounce by the end of this decade as well.

The S&P 10,000 roadmap: earnings first, then the multiple

Yardeni’s 10,000 call isn’t presented as a slogan—it’s an earnings-and-valuation pathway.

His starting point is S&P 500 operating earnings in the neighborhood of $270 per share this year, rising toward roughly $300–$310 next year (he notes consensus estimates are already in that vicinity). From there, his longer-run framework is that earnings can compound meaningfully—on the order of “tens of dollars” per year—potentially reaching about $500 per share by 2030.

If the market in late 2029 is looking ahead to 2030 earnings and applying a multiple around 20x (his rough range: 18–22x), you land near the headline number:

• $500 × 20 = 10,000

The key issue, in his telling, isn’t whether earnings can grow—Yardeni views that as plausible in a world where margins remain sturdy. The bigger swing factor is the valuation multiple, which tends to compress when recession odds rise. His thesis implicitly assumes the economy continues to absorb shocks without a deep downturn.

In the full interview, Yardeni goes deeper on what keeps multiples elevated—and what would force a reset.

Why he thinks the “Roaring 2020s” is still intact

Yardeni argues the “Roaring 2020s” theme (which he introduced to Financial Sense at the beginning of this decade) has been supported by the simplest scoreboard metrics: economic output and consumption have remained strong, and the market has repeatedly returned to new highs.

Underneath that resilience, he places heavy weight on productivity: the digital economy keeps getting faster, cheaper, and more scalable. In his framing, AI isn’t a standalone craze so much as the next stage of a decades-long evolution—mainframes to PCs to cloud to AI—enabling companies to do more with less, and supporting higher profitability.

He also addresses policy uncertainty, including tariffs. Markets have had time to “live with” trade risks, and Yardeni suggests political incentives may eventually favor dialing back extremes. That said, he acknowledges uncertainty around how far executive authority can go—and what might happen if courts weigh in.

AI bubble fears: why today doesn’t look like 1999 (to him)

Yardeni’s take on the AI “bubble” debate is unusually direct: the fact that so many investors are debating bubble risk is, to him, a sign we may not be at a true mania peak.

He contrasts today with the late 1990s when—by his recollection—speculation was more broadly embraced and skepticism was less common. Now, AI leaders can fall hard on a negative catalyst and then stabilize as fundamentals reassert themselves. He points to this year’s turbulence around a China-linked AI development narrative as an example: the market reacted sharply, but major companies reiterated that spending plans remained intact because demand was still there.

His bigger point is that AI leadership isn’t a single-company story. It’s an ongoing competitive race across hyperscalers and chip/software ecosystems—“a horse race that’ll never end,” as he puts it—which can create volatility but also sustained investment.

The audio includes Yardeni’s most useful nuance here: what he considers “healthy” volatility versus the kind that signals a true speculative blow-off.

China, national security, and the “two sandboxes” world

On China’s ability to compete, Yardeni doesn’t dismiss the challenge—he simply frames it as more segmented than investors often assume.

His view is that national security concerns may keep certain technologies and products from becoming fully globalized. You can see this already in restricted markets for advanced chips and in scrutiny over data-heavy platforms. In that kind of environment, the future may look less like one winner-take-all global arena, and more like parallel ecosystems—distinct “sandboxes” where U.S.-aligned and China-aligned systems compete, but not always head-to-head everywhere.

For markets, that matters because it may limit some of the most direct forms of price competition in sensitive areas, even while innovation continues on both sides.

Positioning: don’t “overweight” what already dominates the index

One of Yardeni’s more practical points is about portfolio construction, not predictions. With technology and communication services representing a very large share of the S&P 500, he’s cautious about telling investors to simply “overweight tech” after a massive run.

Instead, he leans toward staying market weight in the mega-cap heavy areas while looking for diversification elsewhere. He mentions areas like healthcare (which he sees as relatively depressed and potentially improving), as well as cyclicals such as industrials and financials. He also discusses energy in the context of AI’s infrastructure buildout—if AI requires huge compute, it requires huge power.

This is an important subtlety: Yardeni is bullish, but he’s not arguing for a one-trade portfolio. He’s arguing for participation in the dominant trend without doubling your concentration risk.

Gold: why he changed his stance—and why “10,000” is even in the conversation

Yardeni has traditionally been reluctant to issue strong gold calls because gold doesn’t produce cash flows, making it harder to value with conventional models. But he says price action and flows have changed his view enough that he now favors gold as a diversifier—and even suggests investors overweight it.

His demand story is twofold:

• Central bank accumulation, particularly from countries seeking diversification away from dollar-linked reserves
• Household/investor demand in key regions such as China and India, where alternative assets (like property) have faced headwinds

From there, Yardeni makes a provocative observation: over very long periods, the trend of gold and the S&P 500 has often rhymed. That doesn’t mean they move together month-to-month (they frequently don’t). But it’s part of why he can entertain a world where an S&P move toward 10,000 could coincide with a gold move toward 10,000 as well.

Even if that specific target sounds extreme, the portfolio implication is clearer: Yardeni sees gold as a strategic hedge in an era of geopolitical fragmentation, reserve diversification, and rapid technological change.

What to watch (the real swing factors)

If Yardeni is right, the story isn’t just “stocks go up.” The bull case depends on a few big variables staying broadly supportive:

• No recession / no major earnings drawdown that forces a multiple reset
• AI translating into measurable productivity, not just capex hype
• Policy and geopolitics staying disruptive (a reasonable base case) but not system-breaking
• Market concentration risk being managed through breadth or rotation

That’s why his outlook is best understood as a framework: earnings growth plus a still-respectable valuation multiple can get you to 10,000—but the path will likely include volatility, rotations, and periodic narrative shocks.

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