Risk On – Risk Off Commodities 101. The Corn & Ethanol Report

We kicked off the week with Fed Logan Speech at 1:30 A.M., Retails Sales MoM & YoY, NY Empire State Manufacturing Index, Retail Sales Ex Autos MoM, and Retail Sales Ex Gas/Autos MoM at 7:30 A.M., Business Inventories MoM, NAHB Housing Market Index, and Retail Inventories Ex Autos MoM at 9:00 A.M., Export Inspections at 10:00 A.M., 3-Month & 6-Month Bill Auction at 10:30 A.M., NOPA Crush Report at 11:00 A.M., Crop Progress at 3:00 P.M., and Fed Daly Speech at 7:00 P.M.

green grass

Photo by Waldemar on Unsplash

We're starting off the week with soybean oil the strength of the grain complex. Events over the weekend have put weakness in the energy values and pressured a host of other commodities, after the failed Iranian attack on Israel which failed to spark the fallout they anticipated, as the world watches, this most likely will backfire as we realize their bullying tactics. This means at the moment, we are stuck in a world of choppiness as neither the bulls or bears can sustain a trend. US farmers are making normal progress with corn seeding with an estimated 6 to 7% of the crop planted through Sunday and soybean planting just getting underway with 3 to 4% in the ground. The NOPA will release their March corn crush report today and analysts are looking for another record monthly crush of 197 to 199 Mil Bu with soybean oil stocks building to 1,800 Mil pounds. The US soybean crush rate has been record large from September – March and Ag Resources (ARC) argues that WASDE is 40 Mil Bu too low on their annual forecast at 2,300 Mil Bu. However, with sinking revenue margins, US crushers will take extra seasonal downtime for maintenance this spring. And finally, on this Monday morning, Israel has pledged there will be retaliation following the Iranian failed attack with over 300 drones that failed to reach their mark. The broadening crisis has politicians and traders walking a fine line. In the meantime, the markets are digesting the risk.

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