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Introduction: Commodities Back in the Spotlight

Are we on the cusp of the next great commodity supercycle? According to Jim Puplava, President of Financial Sense Wealth Management, a powerful confluence of macroeconomic, technological, and geopolitical forces is pushing the global commodity complex into a secular bull market—one that could last decades. At the very forefront of this shift are strategic metals, which have become the tip of the spear in the battle for resources that will define the future of technology, energy, and national security. In a recent podcast on Financial Sense Newshour, Puplava laid out the drivers, risks, and opportunities shaping the future of energy, metals, and natural resources.

Understanding Supercycles: History and Duration

Commodity supercycles are rare but profoundly impactful. As Puplava explains, “They tend to last at a minimum of maybe 10 years…to as long as 25 years.” History offers four precedents: the industrialization of the United States, global rearmament before World War II, the postwar rebuilding of Europe and Japan, and, more recently, China’s breathtaking industrial ascent beginning in 2001. Each cycle was underpinned by an unexpected demand shock and the lengthy lag time required for new supply to come online.

“We’re in the next one—the fifth one,” Puplava believes. This time, the drivers are even more global, varied, and urgent: strategic resource nationalism, massive fiscal stimulus, the ongoing push into green energy and battery technology, and AI data center buildouts all over the globe.

The Fourth Industrial Revolution and Commodity Demand

Today’s “fourth industrial revolution” is about more than just technology—it’s about the physical resources that power it. AI and cloud-driven data centers are power-hungry giants, devouring electricity like never before. Nuclear’s a distant dream—three to five years out—so, as Jim Puplava notes, natural gas is the heavyweight stepping in to fuel the frenzy. As well, the idea of peak demand for fossil fuels is, for now, a myth: “Every single year they've talked about it, every single year we're consuming more oil, and we're consuming more natural gas every single year.”

But the demand isn’t just in the West. Emerging markets in Asia and Africa are urbanizing and industrializing rapidly, requiring everything from copper and lithium to concrete and steel. “This is not going away,” Puplava emphasizes.

Industrial Policy and the Race for Critical Minerals

The escalating competition between the US and China over access to rare earth metals highlights another crucial dimension of the current commodity supercycle: industrial policy. Rare earths—vital for everything from advanced electronics to military hardware and renewable energy—are overwhelmingly dominated by Chinese supply chains. As geopolitical tensions rise, the US government has begun to take unprecedented steps to secure its own sources of these critical minerals.

A prime example of this shift is the recent investment into MP Materials, the only rare earth mining and processing company of scale operating in the United States. By channeling funds and policy support toward MP Materials, the US is signaling a broader move to reshore and diversify supply chains for strategic commodities.

As Jim Puplava notes, “We’re seeing the government take a more active role in ensuring we have domestic access to the raw materials that underpin our high-tech economy and national security.” This marks a significant departure from the laissez-faire approach of previous decades, underscoring how industrial policy is becoming a key tool in the global race for resource security.

Infrastructure, Underinvestment, and the Bottleneck

The scale of global consumption is unprecedented. “We consume more materials in a single year than was consumed in the entire preceding centuries,” Puplava states. And yet, years of underinvestment—driven by low commodity prices and ESG pressures—have left supply dangerously inelastic. “There’s been almost a decade of underinvestment in supply and demand. Balances for commodities have started to reflect years of this reduced capital expenditure and underinvestment.”

For mining, this is critical. “It takes almost 17 to 18 years from the time of discovery to the time of production to bring a new mine into production,” Puplava explains. Even if new projects started today, they wouldn’t provide relief for years—setting the stage for persistent shortages and price spikes.

Shale Peak and Energy Security

A similar dynamic is playing out in energy. The U.S. shale boom, which nearly doubled domestic oil production, is now stalling. “Many, like Goering and Rozencwajg, feel that shale has peaked here in the US,” Puplava says. Policies discouraging fossil fuel investment, combined with the natural depletion of shale fields, are contributing to a tightening market.

“Despite higher oil prices, despite tax incentives, despite an increase in drilling—oil production steadily fell throughout the '70s,” Puplava points out, drawing parallels to today. The implication: “We think we're going to be looking at higher energy prices despite drill, baby, drill.”

The Case for Copper, Silver, Uranium, and Energy

For investors, the opportunity—and risk—is in the specifics. Puplava outlines four core themes for the years ahead:

Copper: The Metal of Electrification

“Demand for copper is going to more than double,” Puplava highlights, citing S&P Global’s projections. EVs, data centers, and renewable energy infrastructure are all copper-intensive. Yet, “If they were to start today, we would not see anything meaningful hit the supply of inventories for at least probably 10 to 12 years at a minimum.” The bottleneck is real, and the price signal will be powerful.

Silver: Dual Role, Dual Demand

Silver is both an industrial and a precious metal. “This will be the fifth consecutive year that we're running major silver deficits,” says Puplava. Solar panels, electronics, and consumer demand are all rising, while mine supply is barely growing. “Silver is grossly undervalued when you consider it as a precious metal and as an industrial metal.”

Uranium: The Quiet Revolution

The push toward decarbonization is reviving nuclear power worldwide. “2025 is going to be a record year for new plants coming online,” notes Puplava. With hundreds of new reactors planned or under construction, “the drivers of uranium are climate change, decarbonization, energy security, and also electrification and data centers.”

Energy: Oil and Gas Remain Central

Despite headlines about renewables, fossil fuels aren’t going away soon. “We're very big on nat gas. We own nat gas pipelines, which have done extremely well for us.” The sector’s weighting in the S&P 500 is at a multi-decade low, and Puplava sees oil “extremely undervalued” relative to demand and supply constraints.

Macro Forces: Debt, Deficits, and Global Liquidity

Beyond supply and demand, Puplava identifies policy and macroeconomic forces as critical tailwinds. With global debt soaring, governments are locked into loose monetary and fiscal policies. “By the end of the decade, we're going to be at 50 trillion [in U.S. debt]. I don't know how the government's going to be able to pay for that, especially if interest rates...start getting to 5, 6, and there's even talk about 7% on treasuries down the road.”

As Michael Howell of CrossBorder Capital put it, “central banks around the globe are going to have to continue printing money.” For investors, this means inflation hedges are essential—and commodities are likely to be among the biggest beneficiaries.

Positioning Portfolios for the Supercycle

Reflecting these trends, Puplava has positioned his clients with a significant commodities allocation. “We're about 30% in commodities, and that's really worked out well over the last three or four years.” He’s also launching a dedicated natural resources portfolio for high-net-worth investors, focused on metals, energy, and potentially agriculture and base metals.

But he warns: “Commodities, when they rise on the upside or when they fall on the downside, can move swiftly, and they are major moves. It's not like a 10% correction in the market. You know, you could see 30, 40% corrections in the commodity space.” Risk management and diversification across commodity sectors are key.

Conclusion: Secular Forces, Lasting Trends

The message is clear: According to Puplava, a new commodity supercycle is likely underway, driven by technology, infrastructure, policy, and geopolitics. “If we boil this down, there’s probably four drivers,” Puplava summarizes. “Technology...government fiscal and monetary policy...geopolitical risk...and just the supply factor.” The possible upshot? “This goes beyond 10 years.”

For investors, now is the time to recognize the strategic importance of commodities—not just as a hedge, but as a growth engine for the coming decade.

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