We kicked off the day with Fed Bowman Speech at 6:00 A.M., Chicago Fed National Activity Index at 7:30 A.M., Redbook YoY at 7:55 A.M., S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price MoM & YoY, House Price Index, House Price Index MoM & YoY at 8:00 A.M., CB Consumer Confidence, Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index, Richmond Fed Manufacturing Shipments Index, and Richmond Services Index at 9:00 A.M., Dallas Fed Services Index and Dallas Fed Revenues Index at 9:30 A.M., 42-Day Bill Auction at 10:30 A.M., Fed Cook Speech at 11:00 A.M., 2-Year Note Auction and Money Supply at 12:00 P.M., Fed Bowman Speech at 1:10 P.M., Cold Storage at 2:00 P.M., and API Energy Stocks at 3:30 P.M.

Photo by Waldemar on Unsplash

Central US Forecast Wetter in Illinois, Heat Across the South Central US, Unwanted Rain Probable in NW Midwest: The Central US forecast has maintained a wetter pattern across key areas of N Illinois/Indiana into July 4^th but also features additional unwanted precipitationin IA,MN, and WI. The uneven weather pattern of 2024 growing season will continue. Coming rain will be welcomed in the E Midwest where it falls, but too much rain is advertised in Iowa and Minnesota and too little across the S Plains, Delta, and Mid-South. There’s a broad consensus that high pressure Ridging dominates the Southern US over the next two weeks. High temps in the 90’s & low 100’s will be commonplace across TX, OK, KS, LA, AR, MS, TN, and KY. Getting yields correct will be difficult this season. Record yields require a consistent favorable pattern. The mean position of high pressure Ridging will be watched closely in the opening days of July with corn pollination underway. This is not good news if your in Mankato, Minnesota, and other states ravaged by floods. The June Grain Stocks Report will be released on Friday. The May crush was the final data point needed to estimate the Mar-May soybean use and quarterly June 1^st ending stocks. Ag Resources (ARC) estimates June 1^st ending stocks at 956 Mil Bu, up 160 Mil Bu (20%) from a year ago. Soybean crush in the Mar-May quarter was 2 Mil Bu larger than last year, a fractional increase due to weak crush margins. Quarterly exports were down 12 Mil Bu or 5% from a year ago at a 3-year low of 233 Mil Bu. Combined crush and export use was 10 or 1% less than last year. The greatest contributer to larger quarterly end stocks was a larger was a 158 Mil Bu increase in stocks at the start of the quarter. Additionally, imports are estimated to have risen by 5 Mil Bu to a 10-year high of 11 Mil Bu. with supply, crush. And exports approximately known, the final variable left to estimate is the quarterly seed/residual rate. Seed/residual in the first quarter was 30 Mil Bu less than a year ago at 142 Mil Bu. The 2^nd quarter residual was -25 Mil Bu, putting residual in the first half of the year at a 3-year low of 208 Mil Bu. June 1^st stocks of 956 Mil Bu are up from a year ago and just below the 2021-22 June stocks figure. The cumulative stocks/use ratio pencils out to 9% or just under last year. Both old and new crop soybean futures are deeply oversold ahead of the upcoming USDA reports. Heavy rains and flooding will not be picked up in the June acreage report, but the damage appears to be extensive. ARC continues to wait for a summer rally to advance old and new crop sales. Eastern Midwest and excessive wet weather across the NW Midwest & N Plains last week. The condition falls in line with trade expectations. 69% of the US corn and 67% of the US soybean crop are in good-to-excellent condition. 40% of the winter wheat harvest is completed with 4% of US corn crop silking and 8% of the soybean crop blooming. ARC sees the current US corn yield at 178 BPA with soybeans holding at 52 BPA.

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