Performative War
Darya Dugina and the explosion that took her life. Images via social media.
The Meaning of an Assassination
What does the assassination of Darya Dugina and the attempted drone strike of Russia’s Black Sea Fleet headquarters have in common?
Days after an attempted drone strike on the headquarters of Russia’s Black Sea Fleet in Sebastopol,
An explosion near the headquarters of the Black Sea Fleet in Sevastopol.
— 🇷🇺Jacob🇷🇺Charite🇷🇺 (@jaccocharite) August 20, 2022
Eyewitnesses report that the roar was heard around 8:17. Presumably, it was a drone, Razvozhaev reports.
1/ pic.twitter.com/AKu4JPwUcr
Russian journalist Darya Dugina was killed by a car bomb, apparently intended for her father, the political philosopher Alexander Dugin. Russia’s federal security service, the FSB claims the assassin was a Ukrainian SBU operative named Natalia Vovk, and has posted video and documentation supporting their claim.
Dugin Isn’t a Member of Putin’s Inner Circle
Despite claims in the West and in the Ukraine that Dugin is a major influence on Russian President Vladimir Putin,
Two days ago, 1+1, one of Ukraine's largest TV channels, showed a story about Alexander Dugin, titled "He controls Putin", calling him "Putin's brain" and "ideologue of the Russian civilization". pic.twitter.com/UmRqaQKA9X
— Russians With Attitude (@RWApodcast) August 21, 2022
As Russian journalist Anatoly Karlin pointed out several years ago, Dugin was the 39th most prominent political philosopher/ political scientist in Russia:
Alexander Dugin is continuously trouted out by the Western media as this gray cardinal of the Kremlin, who is the “brain”, the favorite philosopher, and even the Rasputin behind Putin and no doubt soon behind Trump as well.
The banal reality is that Dugin is, at least in relative terms, far better known in the West than he is in Russia.
Last month, a Russian website quantified the media presence of the country’s top politologists. Dugin placed a rather unremarkable 39th on that list.
Regular readers may recall that Anatoly Karlin correctly predicted Russia’s invasion of Ukraine earlier this year.
Why Russia 🇷🇺 may invade Ukraine 🇺🇦 after all. @akarlin0 estimates an 85% chance of invasion.
— Portfolio Armor (@PortfolioArmor) February 16, 2022
Might be worth adding downside protection here just in case. $SPY $QQQ https://t.co/LJyWqUHMyN
So why target Dugin? Most likely, because he’s so well-known in the West.
Performative War
What the attempted assassination of Alexander Dugin and the pinprick strike on Russia’s Black Sea Fleet headquarters have in common is that they were effective forms of “performative war”, as described by Neal Stephenson in his most recent novel, Termination Shock.
For readers unfamiliar with Stephenson, his early novel Snow Crash is a favorite of tech types from Google co-founder Larry Page to Union Square Ventures partner Fred Wilson. And Neal Stephenson has been one of America’s most prophetic novelists. Already two dystopian trends he predicted in Snow Crash have come true: people living in shipping containers, and mass illegal migration from the Global South to America (although in Stephenson’s book, they came by sea, which was likely an homage to Jean Raspail’s earlier novel, The Camp of the Saints).
In Termination Shock, a character notes that warriors in the past–from the ancient Greeks to the Comanche Indians–would engage in acts intended to intimidate their opponents.
“The sort of literary touch you could get away with when you were Freeman Dyson and it was 1962.” pic.twitter.com/fTgtanm65a
— David Pinsen (@dpinsen) January 5, 2022
But at a certain point, it stopped working:
Beyond a certain point–which happened at different times in different parts of the world–hard tactical outcomes were all that mattered…Like, it would not have made sense to chain [German Field Marshall Friedrich] Paulus behind a T-34 and drag him around Stalingrad. It wouldn’t have moved the line of battle one inch.
It doesn’t seem like it will work in the Ukraine either, where the mooted Ukrainian counter offensive in Kherson appears to be going in reverse.
The AFU General Staff in the morning report again reported the presence of advancement of Russian forces in the area of Blahodatne
— -- GEROMAN -- The Zerbian - 👀 - (@GeromanAT) August 22, 2022
Some sources announced full control of the village, in the evening the Armed Forces of Ukraine did not mention new data on the status pic.twitter.com/lnjaVIRnf0
The War and the War of Words
The slow, grinding nature of the Ukraine War over the last several months has contrary claims about it coexist: a couple of months ago, a top advisor to Ukrainian President Zelensky claimed that Ukraine was losing up to 1,000 troops per day, with up to 500 of those killed in action; on Monday, though a Ukrainian general said they had lost fewer than 9,000 soldiers killed in the entire war. American Colonel Douglas Macgregor (Retired) estimated recently that the Ukrainians might have lost 60,000 troops killed in action (versus about 12,000 for the Russians).
Probably around 13k and 50k now, respectively.
— Anatoly Karlin (🇷🇺,🇨🇳) (@powerfultakes) August 23, 2022
Though possibly the Ukrainians only count professional Army, not terbats, who are known for being the cannon fodder.
Ultimately, though, the war will be decided on the ground, which raises the question: why engage in performative war? My guess is it’s meant to encourage the continued flow of aid from the West and the U.S. in particular. If you’re wondering how a Ukrainian assassination of a young Russian woman might encourage that, it’s important to note that the Ukrainian side denies responsibility for the attack. But they are using it as a way to cast the Russians in a negative light.
One of Twitter's top Russia "experts" claims that Dugin killed his own daughter "as an esoteric sacrifice to supernatural powers."
— Clint Ehrlich (@ClintEhrlich) August 23, 2022
These are the people the blue checks rely on.
They. Aren't. Serious. People. https://t.co/lwkSTFB6tT
Frantic Ukro claims: https://t.co/nLOxp5rEj3
— Anatoly Karlin (🇷🇺,🇨🇳) (@powerfultakes) August 21, 2022
Reality check: Moscow has a lower murder rate than London. https://t.co/7PKNL0ZPNi "Hits" in Moscow are a thing of the 1990s and early 2000s, not of the 2020s.
A Quick Update on a Previous Post
In a post last month (Riding The Natural Gas Rollercoaster),
Heads you’re up 108%: tails you’re down 30%. https://t.co/l9dyQwvLr4 $BOIL $UNG $OXY $KOLD
— Portfolio Armor (@PortfolioArmor) July 16, 2022
I mentioned that our top name on July 15th was the ProShares Ultra Bloomberg Natural Gas ETF (BOIL).
Screen capture via Portfolio Armor on 7/15/2022.
As of Monday’s close, BOIL was up more than 82% since then, and our July 15th top ten names were up 22.97%, on average, versus 7.33% for the SPDR S&P 500 Trust (SPY).
This appears to be another example of our new security selection factor improving our entry points into volatile names like BOIL.
Here's a look at how the top names picked in the first four weeks since we added this new factor have done so far versus $SPY.
— Portfolio Armor (@PortfolioArmor) August 18, 2022
After that, we'll show how our "plain" top ten (with no factors) has done.
June 24. pic.twitter.com/N8ZZjklCfa
More By This Author:
Have Western Sanctions On Russia Failed?
Blood Bath & Beyond
The Market's Up, The VIX Is Down, But Risks Abound
Disclaimer: The Portfolio Armor system is a potentially useful tool but like all tools, it is not designed to replace the services of a licensed financial advisor or your own independent ...
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