Natural gas futures on the Nymex had a positive week, closing 2.3% higher than the previous one at $4.85. EIA reported a draw of 11 Bcf in working underground stocks for the week ended November 21. Total inventory is currently at 3,935 bcf, 0.8% lower y/y, 4.2% above the 5-year average.

The first couple of draws are here in this start of the withdrawal season. The pace of reduction is what we need to see more closely in the coming weeks. We want to be as precise as we can in identifying the seasonal ceiling before starting the selling operations in the near-term charts on a post-winter downtrend. We do want to buy, but not hold, any winter spike, although at this point any price close to $5.00 will immediately offer a selling opportunity on exhaustion. The January contract had the same behavior last spring and in the summer; any daily overbought RSI was to be sold immediately. Production has been easily keeping pace with demand since then. Nymex natural gas appears to be taking on a lot of hedging volumes from across the board on a near-term use of the market because of end-of-year trading. Any distortion will only offer a couple of spikes. We need to be careful not to hold too much of it after mid-February. Put options are going to be in the money by early spring. Fundamentals have not changed.

Many small businesses in the US appear to be being hit hard by President Trump's tariffs. Product prices are becoming increasingly unaffordable for the American consumer. The fossil fuel industry is once again in the crosshairs of geostrategic interests. I have already mentioned since 2022 that the quantities of LNG projected as an exportable product are far too optimistic. The US has a national interest in keeping the price of natural gas low so that it can compete for at least another 20 years with other forms of energy in the most critical industry. That of the domestic electricity generation. This is the one market share that American producers do not want to lose. US macro data and the dollar against majors have to be monitored routinely. Daily, 4hour, 15min MACD and RSI are pointing to entry areas.  

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