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Natural gas futures on the Nymex had a volatile week before closing 0.3% higher than the previous one at $3.20. EIA reported on Thursday a rather bearish build of 75 Bcf in working underground stocks for the week ended September 19. Total inventory is currently at 3,508 Bcf, 0.6% higher y/y, 6.1% above the 5-year average. Both percentages have been steadily ascending in the past couple of months.

We have started buying the near-term charts again; we believe that the seasonal uptrend will give this market the missing self-confidence back following its recent lows. The low spot pricing in the Northeast has been really spectacular during the summer demand. The daily MACD is looking ready to cross bullish again; we do not want to get married to any contract throughout next spring. So buying the 4H charts in the secondary market will be our main operation for the coming couple of months. Any Put options must also be ordered on time for the next spring contracts. Is the $4.00 spot level attainable in the Henry Hub? I believe yes, but at the same time we do not have to risk any longer-term prospect for this volatile period that the U.S. natural gas market is facing. For the past 3 years, I have been warning that the US central interest rate will remain high for different reasons and that the US LNG market will not actually reach the export volumes reported in the media... Both of these scenarios are coming true. 

Sticky inflation is still above the Fed's target. At a time when the U.S. labor market has finally shown signs of weakening, the total spending still seems solid enough that a few industries cannot stop a profiteering attitude amid a cheaper money environment. US macro data and the dollar against majors have to be monitored routinely. Daily, 4hour, 15min MACD and RSI are pointing to entry areas. 

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