Natural Gas futures on the Nymex had a positive week closing 4.1% higher than the previous one, at $2.76.

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EIA reported on Thursday another build of 32 Bcf in working underground stocks for the week ended August 25. Total inventory is currently at 3,115 Bcf, 18,4% higher y/y, 8,7% above the 5-year average. Both percentages are in steady decline, three months before the withdrawal season begins.

Buying operations have already been very profitable for us. Another range at re-buy area has emerged. We engaged without hesitation on the near-term charts on directional trading. The market now becomes too technical offering hedging opportunities on spike activity. We have been targeting those $4.00 - $4.50s for the winter contracts and we are looking forward for the higher highs as the market moves in its seasonal uptrend. Recent support at higher lows has been confirming our strategy.

Is the whole Big Board ready to become red after the latest Fed decision? We have been listening to Mr. Powell’s speeches about the inflation. I am not even sure if he used the term “energy cost” at any point in those latest speeches during the past year. He did it in his last one last week. It was like talking to third grade kids: “Headline inflation is what households and businesses experience most directly, so this decline is very good news. But food and energy prices are influenced by global factors that remain volatile and can provide a misleading signal of where inflation is headed. In my remaining comments, I will focus on core PCE inflation, which omits the food and energy components”.

Well, he is totally wrong about the energy cost. Or he is hiding technicalities of a policy friendly only to some producers and trading offices. Hostile even to the President of the United States at this point and the whole government. There was never a fundamental issue about energy flows and volumes at fair pricing. Production or delivery anywhere in the world was never an issue. Profiteering by some cannot be a fundamental problem for one of the world’s most precious commodities for human development. The president of the Fed must be able to break this down for the whole economy and all market participants. That must be his job. The American indexed have this reputation of acting as piggy bank for asset holders. That is why the S&P 500 is the most obvious uptrend in the history of the stock markets. Too many money flows are coming back home when the rest of the world becomes risky too quickly. Assets and equity are well backed by 18 active aircraft-carriers and the best military in the world. Best by far.

We still want to buy any dip at support levels on the near-term charts, higher lows are to become higher highs soon in this seasonal uptrend and surely before December. But let’s be careful afterwards. This market has the reputation of becoming fair too quickly. We cannot even properly breakout from the $3.00 level. No free Liberal Democrat wants to pay too much for energy. Not even the military service men. Nuclear and Renewables are looking cheap and ready to grab any available market share in the electricity generation mix. Nobody on European soil will have a major issue in burning more of its own coal and postpone the energy transition for 2 or 3 years. The Russian invasion will no longer offer an excuse for profiteering. Someone once called it “Freedom Gas”, not “Expensive one”. Besides, the U.S. domestic market is the most important one that must be preserved. Too many market participants were focused on the LNG overseas export trend. I warned about those low volumes 16 months ago. U.S. macro data and the Dollar against majors must be monitored routinely.  Daily, 4hour, 15min MACD and RSI are pointing to entry areas.

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