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Natural gas on the Nymex had a negative week before closing 6.1% lower than the previous one at $3.81. EIA reported on Thursday a rather bearish build of 29 Bcf in working underground stocks for the week ended April 3. Total inventory is currently at 1,773 Bcf 21.7% lower y/y, 4.3% below the 5-year average. Both percentages are moving higher in the beginning of this record 8-month injection season.

I do not even want to talk about the obvious supply and demand story here on seasonality. For the past few months we have been selling any rally that keeps coming our way on this post-winter downtrend. Of course the resistance levels are still to come lower at a faster pace, so range-bound activity is offering multiple times the profit on the same ranges. Any false bullish sentiment has been practically offering us gifts on the near-term charts lately where we usually operate. Too much populism from different market participants on their public opinions. The analysis out there is really poor not only in the U.S. but globally.

President Trump is trying very hard to destroy all the economic indicators that were at record levels under President Biden. He believes that the only thing that makes an economy great is, simply, its trade balance, a thought that would have been correct five centuries ago. Fossil fuel industry insiders, who have high hopes for the President as he opposes all other forms of energy, should not remain complacent. The price is the only marketing tool that will secure natural gas for years to come as a kind of a form of bridge fuel while offering some national security, after all the defamation some boards have been offering these last three years. Nuclear and renewables are ready to take even more share in the highly important electricity generation market. U.S. macro data and the Dollar Index have to be monitored routinely. Daily, 4hour, 15min MACD and RSI are pointing to entry areas.
 

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