Natural gas on the Nymex had a negative week before closing 7.3% lower than the previous one at $3.81. EIA reported on Thursday a bullish nonetheless draw of 261 Bcf in working underground stocks for the week ended February 21. Total inventory is currently at 1,840 Bcf, 23.4% lower y/y, 11.5% below the 5-year average. Both percentages are in the descending throughout the withdrawal season so far.

The market gave us another selling position from this latest winter rally. We now need to be sure the Daily MACD crosses bearish in the next few trading sessions. All our late spring Puts have been in the money, and we want to keep selling these rallies immediately on their natural exhaustion on our way to the seasonal floor later in June. We want to see the resistance level coming a little lower before short selling again on directional trading in this post-winter downtrend.

From a European pricing perspective, it is becoming increasingly clear that American gas has no scope for selling at a higher price. While geopolitical issues appear to be in limbo, natural gas remains firmly overvalued as fewer and fewer countries look to it as a bridge fuel. President Trump, acting again as a salesman of this industry, can only temporarily push for better days and any new customers worldwide. The energy transition and electrification are inevitable. As I have been warning since 2018, US producers should keep its price low, as the most important strategic customer will remain the domestic electricity generation market. U.S. economic data are starting to look bleaker, following President Biden's government record-breaking performance. U.S. macro data and the Dollar Index have to be monitored routinely. Daily, 4hour, 15min MACD and RSI are pointing to entry areas.

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