S&P 500 didn‘t keep Friday‘s upside momentum, and slid below both 4,589 and 4,565 – with only low 4,550s stemming the decline with just one late in the day rebound attempt. Intraday clients though still benefited thanks to Ellin‘s fine ES short move, and plenty of other good brief calls we made on Telegram. While I was warning about a pullback – and still expect a shallow and temporary one as rate cutting bets come again to the fore – one facilitated by rotations out of prior leaders (XLK and XLC), that‘s still a sign of healthy bull to me. Market breadth keeps improving, and even Russell 2000 came back to life.

Gold, Silver and Miners

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Precious metals haven‘t made a top, but it‘ll take time to recover, even weeks as those fast Fed easing bets get tempered – in momentum, not in direction. Yields still haven‘t reached their bottom, and there is more to go – below 4.10% on the 10y easily before the direction turns sideways. The reasons for which yields are declining, hasn‘t gone away even if sticky inflation would get recognized only next year, national debt crisis is far away, loose fiscal policy overpowers Fed, US remains more vibrant than eurozone, and the 2024 elections prospects loom. Precious metals bull isn‘t over – the upleg has only been severely dialed back unless rate cutting odds keep being reaffirmed with incoming data and USD turns back to 102.30 as a minimum.

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