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1. U.S. equity indexes are facing a challenging day.

US Stocks:
The S&P 500 slipped by 0.4%, the Nasdaq by roughly 0.9%, and the Dow hovered near flat—marking a potential third consecutive decline. The tech and consumer discretionary sectors are under pressure, with notable names like Microsoft (down ~1.9% to a 28‑week low at $399.62), Broadcom (–2.6%), Tesla (–2.2%), and Meta (–2%) leading the downturn.

Bright Spot – Apple:
In contrast, Apple shares gained about 1% after unveiling an ambitious $500 billion investment plan in the U.S. over the next four years, accompanied by a commitment to create 20,000 new jobs.

Earnings Outlook:
Eyes are on Nvidia, which is set to report its quarterly results on Wednesday, a development that could shift sentiment in the tech sector.

2. Fixed Income & Currency Dynamics

Treasuries & Yields:
The yield on the US 10-year Treasury note remains steady around 4.4%—its lowest since mid-December—amid a complex mix of economic data, trade policy debates, and evolving monetary policy expectations.

The Dollar’s Dance:
The dollar index has rebounded from last week’s two‑month low to trade flat at approximately 106.6. Investors are weighing the implications of recent flash PMI data and increased bets on potential Fed rate cuts.

3. Commodities: A Tale of Divergence

Crude Oil:
WTI crude futures nudged higher to $70.8 per barrel despite lingering near yearly lows. Market participants are eyeing geopolitical developments—from Ukraine peace talks to potential resumption of exports via the Iraq-Turkey pipeline (which could add 185,000 barrels per day).

Gold’s Safe-Haven Appeal:
Gold prices are holding near $2,940 per ounce, buoyed by heightened safe-haven demand amid escalating tariff concerns. The SPDR Gold Trust’s holdings have surged to 904.38 tonnes, a peak not seen since August 2023.

Copper Oversupply:
Copper futures have dipped below $4.53 per pound—the lowest in over two weeks—reflecting ample supply conditions both domestically and in China, where stocks and smelter overcapacity continue to pressure prices.

4. Key Economic Indicators & Fed Outlook

Recent Data & Expectations:
Flash S&P Global PMI data has painted a mixed picture: while manufacturing shows acceleration, the services sector has contracted. Rising input costs and subdued business expectations have fueled market caution, prompting traders to adjust their Fed rate cut expectations.

Upcoming Releases:
This week, all eyes will be on the PCE inflation report and the second estimate of Q1 GDP growth (projected at an annualized 2.3% expansion). Comments from several Fed officials will also be crucial, offering further clues on the central bank’s policy trajectory.

Inflation & Fed Policy:
While the upcoming Personal Consumption Expenditures report is expected to indicate the slowest price growth since June, persistent inflationary pressures may cause the Fed to delay rate cuts until next quarter, potentially postponing any March adjustments.

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