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Banks did it again-and many believe they will continue to outshine with a soft landing--but is that still the case? 

CPI and PPI numbers may have come out softer, but the Empire ISM numbers show not only a shrinkage in productivity, but also that prices paid reached an 8-month high, while the outlook for the next 6 months is at 2-year highs. 

Yes, markets are happy as yields and the dollar softened, but what else is rallying? 

Silver, Gold, Oil, Corn, Copper, and Coffee.  

Only Sugar, my main inflation barometer outside of the silver to gold ratio, is up, but not up this year. 

Sugar, as shown in the weekly chart, has broken down under the 200-WMA for the first time since December 2020. However, it is holding the August 2024 low.  

Sugar has been my go-to barometer for years.  

You know what did make a new January high today and has not traded at these levels since 2018? 

Ripple XRP. Big news as Donald Trump says: "We will be doing something great with crypto!" XRP will be great.”  

I mention this because it made my Top 10 Picks in the Outlook 2025. 

To sum up...

Don’t get too excited about the lagging indicators - instead focus on the present and future. 

Most instruments are still in the January trading range, and we do not know yet what will clear and what will fail. 

Today, for example, the indices have rallied into resistance and the January trend trade is alive.. 

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In fact, at the time of writing, QQQ and SPY (barely) had cleared the 50-DMA, but small caps IWM and DIA have not. 

IWM rallied to the January 6th high, so look how the stars will align? 

January trend trade sets Thursday-it’s so exciting. 

Nonetheless, most of the key sectors also remain below their 50-DMAs. 

However, on the weekly charts, as I have written about recently, everything remains in a bull phase except IBB Biotechnology.  

The bigger news of the day-Quantum Day announced by Jensen Huang, which sent the beat-up Quantum stocks soaring. 

I have recently mentioned QUBT as a fave. That was up 54% at one point today.

ETF Summary  

(Pivotal means short-term bullish above that level and bearish below)  

S&P 500 (SPY) Scraped the 50-DMA-needs more 

Russell 2000 (IWM) 220 now support 227 resistance to clear 

Dow (DIA) 435 the 50-DMA 

Nasdaq (QQQ) 514 must hold to confirm bull phase 

Regional banks (KRE) 60 must hold  

Semiconductors (SMH) Cleared the 50-DMA now must hold 

Transportation (IYT) Nice pop right up to but not thru the 50-DMA 

Biotechnology (IBB) 135 to clear   

Retail (XRT) 79 pivotal   

iShares iBoxx Hi Yd Cor Bond ETF (HYG) Here is where we find the biggest risk on look 

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