S&P 500 couldn‘t break below 4,270 during the regular session, tired upswing with closing hour buying spree stretching into cyclicals and HYG taking stocks just below my 4,307 resistance. It was pretty clear that swing trading short position needed no adjusting as I shared on the premium Telegram channel earlier today, and again shortly before unemployment claims came, supporting higher yields. As per another update keeping the big picture of this rally duly having run out of steam, it‘s now about tech, discretionaries and communications following lower the already struggling smallcaps, homebuilders, transports and retail.

Note also how well the calls of caution against gold bottom being in, and wariness about not automatically relying on $86 oil support, for it had been reached too fast, have worked.

Summing up, the increased volatility in both bonds and stock market with VIX revival and neither USD nor yields having topped out, is a hallmark of the downswing in stocks – and continued assets repricing through redefinition of risk-free rate – going on, well below 4,260.

Today’s article is once again exceptionally open in full – inspired by Tuesday’s announcement – and in the nearest days I’ll announce what’s new.

S&P 500 and Nasdaq Outlook

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4,260 support break is a key objective, and needs fast selling pressure within the first 90min of today‘s session (the bears are fumbling a good opportunity). It must be accompanied by cyclicals accelerating to the downside faster than tech, otherwise high 4,290s would be seen. Odds though favor a decline taking gradually over, not only because DAX is confirming that move too.

Crude Oil

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Crude oil upswings aren‘t yet to hold, and that‘s similar to the continued bearish precious metals calls including intraday ones. We have seen a barely there yields pause – and not a top yet even though my very conservative 4.85 – 4.90% target had been already reached. There is more to go still – affecting negatively silver and copper as well.

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