S&P 500 couldn‘t at least keep sideways on JOLTS coming in line with expectations, offering good intraday shorting without whipsaw. As per yesterday‘s lengthy article on trading and investing success in different asset classes and market environments, now with a lower low S&P 500 made, odds are stocks won‘t find very sound footing today just yet – especially given the continued Nasdaq and XLY poor showing while it‘s resource plays such as XLE and XLB that hold up much better – energy of course being the key hiding place on the long side still.

This is how I summed up the run up to today‘s important data releases in our channel.

As long as yields don‘t retreat and Jun rate cut odds go below 60% again (now 62%), stocks would remain under pressure – especially Russell 2000 that‘s seeing a bit of a premarket buying the dip. The continued S&P 500 and Nasdaq weakness is though telling, and both indices scoring new local lows in percentage of stocks trading above their 50-day moving averages, present a warning sign that the sellers may step in today some more if data come in hot, and take stocks again to 5,240s.

There has been quite a lot of upside rejection above 5,320s, unlike in gold and oil which are and should have been your profit generators in the last say 1-2 months.
 

Gold, Silver, and Miners

I would be cautious with gold and miners today – the odds of a consolidation have risen, and as a bare minimum, the pace of appreciation would slow down over today and tomorrow.

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