We kicked off the day with Nin Farm Payrolls, Unemployment Rate, Average Hourly Earnings MoM & YoY, Participation Rate, Average Weekly Hours, Government Payrolls, Manufacturing Payrolls, Nonfarm Payrolls, and U-6 Employment Rate at 7:30 A.M., Wholesale Inventories MoM and Wholesale Trade at 9:00 A.M., Fed Cook Speech at 11:00 A.M., Baker Hughes Oil & Total Rig Count at 12:00 P.M., Consumer Credit Change, Used Car Prices MoM & YoY at 2:00 P.M.

Photo by Waldemar on Unsplash

The June International Trade Report showed that the US trade deficit worsened in April to a $74.6 Bil deficit. This was $6 Bil more than March and $1.84 Tril more than a year ago. This also is the widest deficit since October 2022. Imports rose 2.4% to $338.2 Bil on increased imports of cars, computer accessories, telecommunications equipment, and CRUDE OIL. (All can be produce in the US) Exports increased by just 0.8% to $263.7 Bil, with goods sales increasing $2.2 Bil to 172.7 Bil, while exports of industrial supplies/materials decreased by $1.1 Bil. The largest deficit was to the EU, which increased by 11% to $22.5 Bil, while the trade deficit to China narrowed by 11% to $22 Bil. With atrocious Manufacturing data under this, among many other sec administration pushed on us with their anemic economy. ADP data showed us exactly where the economy is going, with actual pay stubs, The international Trade report was another confirmation not to expect or believe there will be any silver lining in today’s Unemployment data. The (IT) report also showed that the US shipped out 65 Mil Bu of soybeans during April. This was 29 Mil (61%) less than a year ago, a 2023/24 marketing year low. This was inline with the monthly FGIS inspections data. US soybean exports to China fell 22 Mil Bu, 24 Mil Bu less than a year ago, while exports to the rest of the world were 4.6 Mil Bu less than 2023. Official US corn exports in April totaled 253 Mil Bu, vs, 199  a year ago, the largest for any month since May 2022, and 10 Mil above prior expectations. Ag Resources (ARC) reports, Central US Weather Forecast Becomes Chaotic, Tropical Activity Key, Models Agree on Heat during mid-June. The Central US forecast has become changeable as models struggle with potential Gulf tropical activity. Confidence in details beyond 7-days is low. NOAA updated 7-day precipitation forecast is scary looking with several threats, and most important in the short run will be the path of a Gulf stream projected to impact the Caribbean/Florida June 12-14. This will determine the upper air setup thereafter into late month. Yet, there’s a general consensus that a lengthy period of dryness and warming temps ahead. This initially favorable, but rain will be needed beyond the next 10-days as temps rise. The PM run of the EU model features temps in the low/mid 90’s across the Southern Plains, MO, and E Midwest at mid-month. Markets will struggle with dramatic run-to-run changes. Ag Resources (ARC) advises to focus on the 5-day forecast at the moment.

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