We kicked off the day with Challenger Job Cuts at 6:30 A.M., Export Sales, Balance of Trade, Imports, Exports, Initial Jobless Claims, Continuing Jobless Claims, Jobless Claims 4-Week Average, Nonfarm Productivity QoQ Final, and Unit Labour Coat QoQ Final at 7:30 A.M., EIA Natural Gas Storage at 9:30 A.M., 4-Week & 8-Week Bill Auction at 10:30 A.M., 15-Year & 30-Year Mortgage Rate at 11:00 A.M.

Photo by Jesse Gardner on Unsplash

The Labor Department will release the monthly employment stats tomorrow, and ADP released its monthly payroll data yesterday. ADP reported that private businesses added 152,000 jobs in May, the lowest in 4 months and well below expectations of 175,000 jobs. The service sector added 149,000 jobs during the month, with education/health services providing the largest increase of 46,000 jobs. Financial activities added 28,000 jobs, and trade/transportation/utilities added 26,000 jobs. The goods sector added just 3,000 jobs, with 32,000 construction jobs added, while Manufacturing jobs FELL by 20,000 jobs, and natural resources jobs fell by 9,000. These numbers should not have you shocked or stunned with current administrations handling of the economy along with many other failures.

The Central US forecast is consistent with prior runs. Scattered showers impact the E Midwest for another few hours before a period of lasting dryness and near normal temps blanket all but the Delta/Southeast. The models are in broad agreement on soaking rain impacting Florida June 12-14, but overall Central US forecast details will be changeable as the Gulf/Atlantic becomes more active and solutions struggle with the exact placement of high Ridging aloft the Plains/ W Midwest in late June. Coming Midwest dryness is welcomed following regionally excessive rainfall in MN, IA, WI, and large parts of TN/KY. Heat expands northward from Mexico into S Plains, but extreme heat into June 15^th will be confines to TX, OH, and KS. Temps elsewhere are projected in the 70’s and 80’s. Dire drought in Mexico & expanding dryness in China are concerns today, but much closer attention will be paid to US/Ukrainian forecasts. Midwest dryness won’t be an issue until late June, but long range guidance is warm & dry. Abnormal heat is projected to continue in corn areas of Ukraine & Russia for another 30 days. Strength is mostly based on supply loss, but clients should be prepared for a lack of lasting price trend moving forward. Upside targets remain unchanged. The next USDA/WASDE report is next Wednesday, the same day the Fed decision on interest rates, the street expects the FED will keep it’s powder dry until September rate cuts ahead of an election. While, the WASDE could be very supportive with global drought pattern fears. Also an update on South American yields should also come into play. Funds remain at record and or near record net shorts. They may still sell into any rallies heading into next weeks WASDE.

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