Grains Report - Wednesday, May 31

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WHEAT
General Comments: Wheat markets were lower and closed at new lows for the move. There were reports that Polish Wheat was being imported by east coast millers due to price. It is cheaper to buy in Europe and ship the Wheat rather than buy in the US and pay the rail freight. There is also a lot of talk that Russia continues to offer a lot of Wheat into the world market at very cheap prices to keep demand for American Wheat very low. Bad growing conditions and bad planting conditions for Spring Wheat supported Minneapolis futures. The weather is still in focus here and around the world. Scattered showers are being reported in southern areas. Planting of Spring Wheat has been delayed due to reports of dry weather in western production areas of both the US and Canada. It is raining now in many of these areas so conditions are improving. Dry conditions are a developing problem in Russia, especially in the Spring Wheat areas there. Ideas that big Russian offers and cheaper Russian prices would be a feature for a while in the world market was the driving force for the weaker prices, but this could soon change if the Spring Wheat production is not good. Ideas are that both Australia and Russia are harvesting record to near-record Winter Wheat crops this year.
Overnight News: The southern Great Plains should get isolated showers. Temperatures should be above normal. Northern areas should see isolated showers. Temperatures will average above normal. The Canadian Prairies should see scattered showers. Temperatures should average above normal.
Chart Analysis: Trends in Chicago are mixed to down with objectives of 573 and 543 July. Support is at 589, 584, and 572 July, with resistance at 603, 617, and 625 July. Trends in Kansas City are down with objectives of 766 and 720 July. Support is at 769, 762, and 756 July, with resistance at 812, 834, and 850 July. Trends in Minneapolis are mixed to down with no objectives. Support is at 769, 762, and 734 July, and resistance is at 821, 836, and 853 July.

RICE
General Comments: Rice closed lower yesterday after another sharp rally in July. New crop months were a little lower as the weather is good for crop development. There was also some buying noted on hot and dry conditions developing in the Delta, but these conditions should benefit crops initially. Harm could come if a drought develops. It is expected to be hot and dry this week but there is rain in the longer range forecasts. Old crop offers still seem hard to find right now, but demand has been a problem all year. Export demand has been uneven. Mills are milling for the domestic market in Arkansas and are bidding for some Rice, but at l4east some mills say they now have enough bought to last until the harvest of the next crop. USDA showed that the next crop is developing fast and that conditions are very good in Rice country.
Overnight News: The Delta should get scattered showers. Temperatures should be near to above normal.
Chart Analysis: Trends are mixed to up with no objectives. Support is at 1690, 1680, and 1660 July and resistance is at 1720, 1733, and 1743 July.

CORN AND OATS
General Comments: Corn closed lower and Oats were higher yesterday. The weekly charts show that Corn futures have moved into a big gap left by the roll from May to July as the front month, but futures could not close the gap or make any further headway in closing the gap yesterday. Oats are in a sideways trend on the weekly charts. Reports of strong planting progress and good, but dry initial development conditions were important as dry and hot weather is in the forecast for the coming week. The market ignored the forecasts yesterday as cooler temperatures are likely by next week and some rain is possible in a couple of weeks. Corn is rolling leaves in southern Midwest areas but most of the Corn should be ok despite the warm and dry weather seen now. Corn is still finding some support from little US producer selling interest.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Corn are up with objectives of 615 and 637 July. Support is at 590, 580, and 570 July, and resistance is at 607, 612, and 616 July. Trends in Oats are mixed to up with objectives of 373 July. Support is at 326, 322, and 312 July, and resistance is at 347, 352 and 358 July.

SOYBEANS
General Comments: Soybeans and the products closed lower yesterday with the weakness most extreme in Soybeans. Planting weather remains very good with little if any precipitation in the forecast for the next week to 10 days. Planting will be complete by then and then the market will worry about hot and dry weather for the Midwest. It is expected to be hot and dry this week, but the Soybeans production can take those conditions for now. Some rain is in the forecast in about two weeks. Brazil basis levels are still low and the US is being shut out of the market for most importers. Brazil is still selling a lot of Soybeans to China and other countries. Brazil has a very good crop, but the additional Soybeans grown in Brazil will be partially wiped out by the losses in Argentina. Argentina has been forced to import from Brazil to keeps its crushing facilities operating.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Soybeans are mixed to down with objectives of 1279 and 1236 July. Support is at 1288, 1276, and 1264 July, and resistance is at 1305, 1343, and 1360 July. Trends in Soybean Meal are down with no objectives. Support is at 388.00, 382.00, and 376.00 July, and resistance is at 402.00, 409.00, and 416.00 July. Trends in Soybean Oil are mixed. Support is at 4580, 4400, and 4320 July, with resistance at 4910, 4970, and 5060 July.

CANOLA AND PALM OIL
General Comments: Palm Oil was lower yesterday and sharply lower today on weaker outside markets and weak export data for May from AmSpec. Trends are turning down again on the daily charts. In Malaysia, April production was 7% less than March at 1.196 million tons. Exports were all down and ending stocks were estimated at 1.597 million tons, down over 10% from last month. Canola was lower yesterday and trends turned down on the daily charts. Reports indicate that domestic demand has been strong due to favorable crush margins, but export demand is questioned, especially since the release of the weaker than expected Chinese economic data last week. Scattered showers and rains have been reported so planting and initial growth conditions are good.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Canola are down with no objectives. Support is at 652.00, 646.00, and 640.00 July, with resistance at 686.00, 691.00, and 706.00 July. Trends in Palm Oil are mixed to down with objectives of 3290 and 3140 August. Support is at 3310, 3270, and 3210 August, with resistance at 3440, 3470, and 3500 August.


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