Grains Report - Wednesday, May 15

General Comments: Wheat was lower yesterday as there were no more reports of frosts and freezing temperatures in Russian growing areas Reports indicate that Russia will still have plenty of Wheat for export in the coming year. USDA issued its latest reports on Friday and included a field survey of Winter Wheat production. Winter Wheat production was estimated at 1.288 billion bushels which was a little below the average trade estimate. Ending stocks for Wheat were also below the trade estimate at 766 million bushels. The weather is still a key, with extreme dryness reported in Russia and parts of the US and too wet conditions reported in Europe. The weekly export sales report showed poor sales once again and sales are not likely to improve anytime soon with the Dollar strength. Big world supplies and low world prices are still around. Export sales remain weak on competition from Russia, Ukraine, and the EU as those countries look to export a lot of Wheat in the coming period. Black Sea offers are still plentiful, but Russia has been bombing Ukraine again and shipments might be hurt from that origin.
Overnight News: The southern Great Plains should get mostly dry conditions. Temperatures should be above normal. Northern areas should see mostly dry conditions. Temperatures will average above normal. The Canadian Prairies should see mostly dry conditions. Temperatures should average above normal.
Chart Analysis: Trends in Chicago are up with objectives of 699 July. Support is at 647, 632, and 610 July, with resistance at 694, 700, and 706 July. Trends in Kansas City are up with no objectives. Support is at 679, 66a5, and 646 July, with resistance at 710, 716, and 722 July. Trends in Minneapolis are up with objectives of 747 July. Support is at 721, 716, and 711 July, and resistance is at 746, 752, and 758 July.

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General Comments: Rice closed a little higher in consolidation trading yesterday. The futures market overall remained in a short-term trading range. Support comes from adverse weather in South American growing areas while new selling is noted from the potential for a big crop in the US. The big US crops are now in doubt from reports of extreme rains in southern growing areas and especially near Houston. Supply tightness is expected to give way to increased production this year and greatly increased supplies this Fall. These ideas are reflected in the prices seen in the cold crop and the new crop.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends are down with no objectives. Support is at 1827, 1785, and 1750 July and resistance is at 1945, 1955, and 1972 July.

General Comments: Corn and Oats closed lower in consolidation trading. The USDA reports are helping to support futures as are ideas of better demand USDA estimated high production at 14.860 billion bushels, but ending stocks were a little below trade expectations at 2.102 billion bushels. USDQ anticipates better demand for US Corn with the cheaper prices seen now. USDA made no real changes to South American production estimates. The Argentine crop has been hit by stunting disease that robs yields and the Brazil Winter crop is suffering from hot and dry weather. Demand has been the driving force behind the rally but now South American weather is the driving force. Increased demand was noted in most domestic categories along with rising basis levels, and export demand has been strong. Ethanol demand has turned less due to weaker petroleum prices seen lately. There is very dry weather for the Winter crops in central and northern Brazil
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Corn are up with objectives of 470 July. Support is at 465, 454, and 450 July, and resistance is at 477, 483, and 490 July. Trends in Oats are up with objectives of 428 July. Support is at 400, 390, and 383 July, and resistance is at 432, 438, and 444 July.

General Comments: Soybeans and Soybean Oil closed lower. Soybean meal was higher on spreads against Soybean Oil. Support for Soybeans came from reports of excessive rains falling on unharvested crops in southern Brazil. Rains up to 400 mm were reported by newswires. USDA released its first estimates for the coming crop year and held production potential at high levels at 4.450 billion bush3els. Export and domestic demand were increased but ending stocks also were estimated higher qt 450 million bushels. Futures rallied anyway and the rally on what appeared to be negative news can often mean that higher prices are coming this week and for the next couple of weeks. Domestic demand has been strong in the US but has suffered as crushers were crushing for oil. Oil demand has suffered as cheaper alternatives for feedstocks hit the bio fuels market. Funds remain short in the market.
Overnight News: Unknown destinations bought 180,000 tons of US Soybeans.
Chart Analysis: Trends in Soybeans are mixed. Support is at 1204, 1192, and 1187 July, and resistance is at 1250, 1256, and 1260 July. Trends in Soybean Meal are mixed. Support is at 366.00, 361.00, and 350.00 July, and resistance is at 368.00, 388.00, and 390.00 July. Trends in Soybean Oil are mixed. Support is at 4230, 4200, and 4140 July, with resistance at 4530, 4610, and 4690 July.

General Comments: Palm Oil was higher on Chicago price action and despite news of weaker exports.. Trends are down on the daily and weekly charts. Canola was higher despite weaker prices in world vegetable oils markets as the market pays attention to Chicago price action and the flooding in Brazil. Farmers concentrate on fieldwork and not selling.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Canola are mixed to up with objectives of 688.00 and 723.00 July. Support is at 647.00, 639.00, and 616.00 July, with resistance at 672.00, 679.00, and 589.00 July. Trends in Palm Oil are mixed to down with objectives of 3650 July. Support is at 3740, 3700, and 3660 July, with resistance at 3870, 3930, and 4020 July.

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