Grains Report - Wednesday, May 11

WHEAT
General Comments: Wheat markets were higher yesterday on better, but still poor overall, crop conditions for the HRW crops in the western Great Plains. Spring Wheat planting remains much behind normal and overall Spring Wheat planting could be reduced because of the delayed planting pace. The weather forecast looks improved for the planting of the US and Canadian Spring Wheat crops as it should be warmer. Trends are sideways in all three markets on the weekly charts but are still turning up in Minneapolis on the daily charts. Russia have been offering into the world market at relatively cheap prices but the Wheat is moving from the Black Sea although a lot of ships are scared to go on those waters. Ukraine can rail Wheat to Romania for shipment and has been doing this. There are forecasts for some light precipitation to fall in HRW growing areas of the western Great Plains this week and more moderate weather is forecast for the northern Great Plains and Canadian Prairies. The northern Great Plains and Canadian Prairies should get showers. The western US Great Plains remained too dry and crop conditions were very poor.
Overnight News: The southern Great Plains should get isolated showers or dry conditions. Temperatures should average above normal. Northern areas should see isolated showers. Temperatures will average above normal. The Canadian Prairies should see isolated showers in western areas. Temperatures should average near to above normal.
Chart Analysis: Trends in Chicago are mixed. Support is at 1069, 1047, and 1034 July, with resistance at 1135, 1143, and 1190 July. Trends in Kansas City are mixed. Support is at 1153, 1133, and 1115 July, with resistance at 1189, 1202, and 1259 July. Trends in Minneapolis are mixed to up with objectives of 1263 July. Support is at 1203, 1180, and 1154 July, and resistance is at 1235, 1242, and 1254 July.

assorted food in sacks

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RICE
General Comments: Rice was lower again for much of the day yesterday, but then rebounded to close higher. Funds and other speculators have been the best sellers lately on demand concerns and as planting and growing conditions improved in the US. There still was slow progress in Rice planting and emergence in the US, but improved weather this week could allow producers to start to catch up. The slow progress and wet and cold conditions in Arkansas have many looking for a lower planted area and all planted area is expected to be less, anyway, due to high input costs against the price of Rice.
Overnight News: The Delta should get mostly dry conditions. Temperatures should be above normal.
Chart Analysis: Trends are mixed. Support is at 1675, 1661, and 1658 July and resistance is at 1718, 1735, and 1749 July.

CORN AND OATS
General Comments: Corn closed higher yesterday on slow planting progress and despite forecasts for better planting weather this week. Very warm temperatures are being reported in the Midwest this week and ideas are that planting progress is about to increase rapidly. Planting progress will be faster, but fields still need to dry out so it could still be a couple of days before many producers can work the fields. The crop planting progress is very slow now due to the cold and wet Spring seen here and the market started to worry about yield loss soon. Many think the top end of the yield has been taken off the Corn crop due to the delayed planting. It already thinks there is reduced planted area because of the March planning intentions reports from USDA. The potential loss of Ukraine exports of Corn makes the world situation tighter. China has a Covid outbreak again and has closed some cities and some ports in response. The moves are harsh but China has a no tolerance policy about the pandemic. The closings of cities and ports will hurt the economy as people can’t make or spend money and hurt imports as there will be fewer places to unload cargoes. However, China has been a very big buyer of US Corn over the last couple of weeks as they need the feed and Ukraine cannot currently offer any supply. President Biden has said he will permit the use of higher ethanol blends in gasoline this Summer in an effort to control inflation and high fuel prices.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Corn are down with objective of 767, 743, and 739 July. Support is at 769, 753, and 739 July, and resistance is at 781, 791, and 814 July. Trends in Oats are down with objectives of 573 July Support is at 586, 565, and 542 July, and resistance is at 622, 647, and 659 July.

SOYBEANS
General Comments: Soybeans and Soybean Oil were higher yesterday but Soybean Meal was lower. There are still fears of a cooling economy on forecasts for much improved planting weather this week, but the delayed planting pace helped support the market yesterday. Soybean Oil remains well supported as demand is holding strong amid very tight supplies of vegetable oils here and around the world. Almost summer like conditions are being reported this week after weeks of cold and wet weather for the Midwest so planting progress should increase. There are still many wet fields so the planting progress for Corn and Soybeans might not be as strong as the trade expects when USDA reports again next Monday. There were ideas that the world could be headed to a recession. Traders are worried about demand moving forward as the US Dollar is very strong and China is locking down due to Covid. There are still worries about Chinese demand because of Covid lockdowns there. China has been a major buyer of US Soybeans this year after a very slow start due to the problems in South America. They are buying for this year and already have booked a large amount of new crop Soybeans to cover future needs. Most of the current buying is for next year. Ideas are that the Chinese economy could slow down due to the Covid lockdowns there and cause the country to purchase less Soybeans in the world market.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Soybeans are down with objectives of 1523 July. Support is at 1578, 1569, and 1561 July, and resistance is at 1622, 1657, and 1679 July. Trends in Soybean Meal are down with objectives of 384.00 and 335.00 July. Support is at 393.00, 386.00, and 381.00 July, and resistance is at 418.00 429.00, and 436.00 July. Trends in Soybean Oil are mixed. Support is at 7910, 7800, and 7700 July, with resistance at 8320, 8400, and 8460 July.

CANOLA AND PALM OIL
General Comments: Palm Oil was higher today on strong export demand as reported by SGS. The Indonesian ban on Palm Oil products imports is now in effect and a ban on Crude Palm Oil exports is coming, according to the Indonesian government. The industry estimates the ban could last through the month of May, but the government has made no such prediction. Hopes for better demand from India keep the market supported. A new Covid outbreak is reported in China and cities and infrastructure has been shut down, including some airports and water ports. The economy could slow down and affect demand. Production from Malaysia is expected to increase as well as the Covid lockdowns finally go away and as the weather is good for production. Canola was lower yesterday and was led lower by July futures as demand seems to have dried up. It is reported to be very dry and has been cold for planting but warmer temperatures are reported this week. There are ideas of reduced Sunflower export potential from Russia and Ukraine. The market is worried about South American production as well. Canada produced a very short crop of Canola last year so supplies are tight.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Canola are mixed. Support is at 1122.00, 1108.00, and 1093.00 July, with resistance at 1168.00, 1182.00, and 1201.00 July. Trends in Palm Oil are up with no objectives. Support is at 6260, 6180, and 6150 July, with resistance at 6500, 6750, and 6850 July.

Disclaimer: A Subsidiary of Price Holdings, Inc. – a Diversified Financial Services Firm. Member NIBA, NFA Past results are not necessarily indicative of future results. Investing in ...

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