WHEAT

General Comments: Wheat markets were mostly higher as the peace talks and the war between Ukraine and Russia look to drag on for a long time.  Ports are closed in Ukraine and Russian shippers and exporters are not offering in part due to sanctions but mostly due to the war and the chance to lose ships.  Plus, Russian internal markets are frozen and it will take some time to get going again.  Mr Biden said that the US will embargo Crude Oil or agricultural products trade from the world market but the lack of Russian offers makes an embargo a moot point right now.  Russia said yesterday that it intends to export as much Wheat as the quota it has imposed will allow.  Higher prices seem likely down the road.  Ukrainians have no interest in living under Russian occupation so the war could be deadly and very costly to both sides.  Russia and Ukraine are both major Wheat exporters. 

Overnight News:  The southern Great Plains should get mostly dry conditions.  Temperatures should average above normal.  Northern areas should see isolated showers. Temperatures will average above normal.  The Canadian Prairies should see isolated to scattered showers.  Temperatures should average below normal.

Chart Analysis:  Trends in Chicago are mixed.  Support is at 1043, 985, and 9861 May, with resistance at 1134, 1149, and 1164 May.  Trends in Kansas City are mixed to down with no objectives.  Support is at 1035, 1006, and 981 May, with resistance at 1122, 1138, and 1150 May.  Trends in Minneapolis are mixed.  Support is at 1031, 1018, and 998 May, and resistance is at 1105, 1120, and 1138 May.

Stock photos by Vecteezy

RICE

General Comments: Rice was higher yesterday and made the highs of the day in the last minutes of trading.  Futures had been trading close to unchanged until the late rally got started.  The cash market is showing that domestic mill business is around everywhere in good volumes.  Producer sales are reported to have been way ahead of average early in the marketing year so stocks on hand in first hands are reported to be lower than normal.  USDA made no changes to its long grains supply and demand estimates last week but did lower export demand for milled medium and short grain Rice and increased ending stocks for those classes and for all Rice.  It also increased world production estimates due to increased production in India and Thailand.

Overnight News:  The Delta should get mostly dry conditions. Temperatures should be near to above normal.

Chart Analysis:  Trends are mixed.  Support is at 1565, 1548 and 1543 May and resistance is at 1600, 1606, and 1624 May.

CORN AND OATS

General Comments: Corn closed mixed yesterday in sideways trading as Russia remains bogged down in its war with Ukraine.  The lower trade came as both sides in the conflict said that peace talks could resume this week.  The potential loss of Ukraine exports of Corn makes the world situation tighter and could be enough to keep Corn prices trending higher for now.  Ukraine might not plant much if any Corn this Summer, too.  Russia is also a Corn exporter and no product is moving from either country at this time  Crop losses in South America are noted.  The summer Corn crop in South America has been hurt by drought, but some rains are reported now.  Corn has been slow to react because the bigger crop is the Winter crop in Brazil and that is expected to be large.  However, not all of the Winter crop has been planted and the bet weather window for Corn planting is passing by.  China has a Covid outbreak again and has closed some cities and some ports in response.  The moves are harsh but China has a no tolerance policy about the pandemic.  The closings of cities and ports will hurt the economy as people cant make or spend money and hurt imports as there will be fewer places to unload cargoes.

Overnight News:  

Chart Analysis:  Trends in Corn are mixed.  Support is at 736, 729, and 716 May, and resistance is at 767, 784, and 792 May.  Trends in Oats are mixed.  Support is at 649, 626, and 617 May, and resistance is at 666, 683, and 697 May.

SOYBEANS

General Comments:  Soybeans and Soybean Oil were lower while Soybean Meal closed  higher as Crude Oil moved lower.  The Ukraine-Russia war has supported Soybeans and world vegetable oils as Russia and Ukraine both export Sunflower Oil.  The two countries account for about 80% of all world Sun oil exports.  Russia is also a major exporter of Crude Oil.  The US is now curbing Russian exports as part of the sanctions but nothing is moving from either country as the companies effectively embargo themselves from doing business in either country.  Russia and Ukraine announced that peace talks could continue this week so Wheat, Corn, and Crude Oil closed lower and bought the Soy complex down with them.  The world situation is still tightening as Brazil and Argentina are getting into the harvest of less Soybeans.  Paraguay might import Soybeans this year from Argentina.  Higher Soybeans prices are still possible due to the war and the overall supply and demand situation.  Argentina has suspended export registrations for Soybeans and products as it works to raise taxes on the Soy complex exports.  China has a Covid outbreak again and has closed some cities and some ports in response.  The moves are harsh but China has a no tolerance policy about the pandemic.  The closings of cities and ports will hurt the economy as people cant make or spend money and hurt imports as there will be fewer places to unload cargoes.

Overnight News:  

Chart Analysis:  Trends in Soybeans are mixed to down with objectives of 1567, 1538, and 1467 May.  Support is at 1634, 1597, and 1579 May, and resistance is at 1698, 1706, and 1734 May.  Trends in Soybean Meal are mixed to up with objectives of 496.00 and 504.00 May. Support is at 476.00, 468.00, and 455.00 May and resistance is at 493.00 496.00, and 502.00 May.  Trends in Soybean Oil are mixed to down with objectives of 6700 and 6070 May.  Support is at 7200, 7000, and 6820 May, with resistance at 7680, 7730, and 7860 May.

CANOLA AND PALM OIL

General Comments: Palm Oil was higher on good export news from the private sources.  Demand in Malaysia could improve soon as Indonesia is expected to keep most Palm Oil at home.  Indonesia is once again making moves to cut the availability of Palm Oil for export as it seeks to keep more at home for bio fuels purposes.  There are still poor production conditions in Malaysia and Indonesia.  Traders are mostly worried about demand from India who has been buying Soybean Oil in the US instead of Palm Oil from Malaysia and Indonesia and is also worried about China and its demand for Palm Oil for bio fuels.  Canola was a little lower along with Chicago Soybean Oil and Crude Oil and on ideas of reduced Sunflower export potential from Russia and Ukraine due to the war  The market is worried about South American production as well.  Canada produced a very short crop of Canola last year so supplies are tight.

Overnight News:

Chart Analysis: Trends in Canola are mixed.  Support is at 1100.00, 1085.00, and 1055.00 May, with resistance at 1136.00, 1144.00, and 1152.00 May.  Trends in Palm Oil are mixed to down with objectives of 7280 and 4380 June.  Support is at 5600, 5550, and 5410 June, with resistance at 6100, 6190, and 6380 June.