Grains Report - Wednesday, June 4
WHEAT
General Comments: Chicago Winter Wheat markets closed higher yesterday on improved demand seen in the weekly export inspections reports and despite forecasts for improved growing conditions at home and abroad. Minneapolis was higher as growing conditions are more suspect in the Northern Plains and Canadian Prairies. There are still reports that cold weather had created frosts in Ukraine and Russia and reports of dry weather in some parts of the EU and China, but these are forecast to change in the short term. Russia is forecasting a large reduction in Wheat production for the coming year. Winter crops in the Great Plains are reported to be in good condition, but Spring Wheat crops in the northern Great Plains and into Canada have been dry. Some rain was seen in the northern Great Plains last week and wetter and warmer conditions are now forecast. It is too wet in the Delta and Southeast. Overall demand for world Wheat has been weak.
Chart Analysis: Trends in Chicago are mixed Support is at 535, 527 and 520 July, with resistance at 556, 561, and 569 July. Trends in Kansas City are mixed. Support is at 533, 523, and 514 July, with resistance at 557, 563, and 574 July. Trends in Minneapolis are up. Support is at 608, 596, and 590 July, and resistance is at 640, 645, and 659 July.
RICE
General Comments: Rice was lower yesterday, but chart trends remain up on the daily and weekly charts. There is still a lot of speculative buying seen in the market. The cash market has been slow with mostly quiet domestic markets and average export demand. Export sales have not been strong, and domestic demand is not strong enough right now to bid prices any higher. Milling quality of the Rice remains below industry standards and it takes more Rough Rice to create the grain for sale to stores and exporters. Rice is planted in most growing areas now. Condition has been rated as good so far by private sources and USDA.
Chart Analysis: Trends are up. Support is at 1319, 1282, and 1261 July and resistance is at 1369, 1402, and 1410 July.
CORN AND OATS
General Comments: Corn was lower yesterday after trading higher on word of strong demand. Forecasts for improved growing conditions in the Midwest this week the main reason for the selling. Warmer and drier weather is in the forecast for this week after a cold week last week. A severe drought is seen in central Nebraska and moderate drought extends east in a corridor into the Chicago area. Most of the Midwest has seen adequate or greater precipitation and it is still too wet in eastern and southern parts. Demand for Corn in world markets remains strong. Oats were higher.
Chart Analysis: Trends in Corn are mixed. Support is at 437, 434, and 431 July, and resistance is at 456, 465, and 470 July. Trends in Oats are mixed. Support is at 348, 341, and 336 July, and resistance is at 384, 390, and 396 July.
SOYBEANS
General Comments: Soybeans were lower last week on forecasts for good growing conditions in the Midwest and on cheaper prices reported from Brazil. The products were lower as it is now doubtful that the biofuels allocations will be released soon and waivers to small producers could mean reduced demand for ethanol or biofuels in the US.. The market could remain under pressure as Brazil basis levels have been under pressure the last few weeks and prices in world markets for Brazil Soybeans are now less than those from the US. Export demand is in its seasonal doldrums. Export demand remains less for US Soybeans as China has been taking almost all the export from South America. Warmer temperatures and drier conditions are expected this week after a cold and wet week last week. A severe drought is seen in central Nebraska and moderate drought extends east in a corridor into the Chicago area. Most of the Midwest has seen adequate or greater precipitation and it is still too wet in southern and eastern areas.
Analysis: Trends in Soybeans are mixed to down. Support is at 1028, 1021, and 1009 July, and resistance is at 1040, 1047, and 1059 July. Trends in Soybean Meal are mixed. Support is at 290.00, 287.00, and 284.00 July, and resistance is at 300.00, 302.00, and 306.00 July. Trends in Soybean Oil are mixed. Support is at 4610, 4530, and 4430 July, with resistance at 4800, 4900, and 5030 July.
PALM OIL AND CANOLA
General Comments: Palm Oil futures were higher today on reports of good demand from the private surveyors. Ideas that current increased production levels mean higher inventories in MPOB monthly data are still around. Ideas of increasing production and reduced demand are also heard. The Ringgit was stronger to help limit gains. Chart trends are down. Canola was lower last week after making new highs for the move. Trends are up on the daily charts and on the weekly charts. The weather has generally been good for planting and crop development in the Prairies with warm and dry weather around lately.
Chart Analysis: Trends in Canola are mixed to down. Support is at 686.00, 680.00, and 674.00 July, with resistance at 717.00, 735.00, and 738.00 July. Trends in Palm Oil are mixed to up. Support is at 3770, 3710, and 3650 August, with resistance at 3990, 4040, and 4130 August.
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