WHEAT
General Comments: Wheat markets were sharply a little yesterday as the war between Russia and Ukraine calmed for the day. It is certain that there will be no grain deal soon for exports through the Black Sea and any export from the Danube will be difficult if not impossible. Ukraine will still be able to ship via land through the EU. It is unlikely that any ship owner or ship insurer will take the chance on any passage of Ukrainian grain through the Black Sea, and maybe not for Russia, either. The world access to Wheat from at least one and perhaps both countries is a lot more restricted. Weather forecasts call for drier weather for the northern Great Plains and Canadian Prairies and some areas will be real hot. Canada is now suffering potential crop losses due to dry weather.
Overnight News: The southern Great Plains should get isolated showers. Temperatures should be above normal. Northern areas should see isolated showers. Temperatures will average above normal. The Canadian Prairies should see scattered showers. Temperatures should average above normal.
Chart Analysis: Trends in Chicago are up with objectives of 793 September. Support is at 733, 711, and 694 September, with resistance at 777, 787, and 796 September. Trends in Kansas City are up with objectives of 947 September. Support is at 891, 878, and 853 September, with resistance at 930, 946, and 951 September. Trends in Minneapolis are up with no objectives. Support is at 918, 907, and 892 September, and resistance is at 948, 961, and 981 September.

Image Source: Unsplash

RICE
General Comments: Rice closed lower after trading higher early in the session on news from late last week that India will stop Rice exports for the foreseeable future. India will not allow Rice exports except for Basmati for now because of too much rain on some the crops and not enough for other areas. Northern areas are too wet and southern areas are too dry. India is the largest exporter of Rice in the world, so it was big news and one that implies that a sharp increase in world price is now possible. Growing conditions are very in southern growing areas and the overall new crop price strength has not been good so far, but new crop is rallying strongly now due to the Indian news. There are some reports of initial harvest going on in southern areas. The weather is still good for crop development. Export demand has been uneven and was poor in the weekly reports released last week.
Overnight News: The Delta should get isolated showers. Temperatures should be above normal.
Chart Analysis: Trends are mixed to up with no objectives. Support is at 1568, 1554, and 1535 September and resistance is at 1631, 1636, and 1648 September.

CORN AND OATS
General Comments: Corn was lower yesterday on weather forecasts that remain mostly dry for the Midwest for the next couple of weeks but with cooler temperatures after this week and as the war in Ukraine calmed for the day. The crops are reported to be in mostly good condition now but need rain constantly to maintain the condition due to the lack of soil moisture from three months of drought that ended at the end of June. A return to hot and dry weather now could greatly impact yields in a bad way. Cooler temperatures after this week will help, but the Corn still needs rain and the lack of rain is more important. Russia has bombed the port of Odessa this week and also attacked facilities along the Danube River in an effort to keep Ukraine from exporting. Ukraine can still export over land via the EU but this entails additional costs. Demand for US Corn in the world market has been very low and domestic demand has been weak due to reduced Cattle and other livestock production. The Brazil Corn harvest is underway and so export prices for Corn from Brazil are getting relatively cheap and Brazil is getting the business.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Corn are up with objectives of 577 and 608 September. Support is at 539, 522, and 515 September, and resistance is at 564, 573, and 579 September. Trends in Oats are mixed. Support is at 430, 425, and 414 September, and resistance is at 453, 460, and 466 September.

SOYBEANS
General Comments: Soybeans and the products were a little lower yesterday on weather forecasts that call for very warm and dry conditions for the Midwest for this week but cooler temperatures with no or at least very little rain next week. Soybean Oil was higher on demand ideas as Ukraine is a major Sunoil exporter with a 25% share of the world market. Russia has been bombing Odessa and bombed facilities along the Danube River although it did not bomb anywhere yesterday. Most longer-range maps indicate the potential for dry weather. Temperatures are expected to be above normal this week but closer to normal next week. Ideas are that the top end of the yield potential is gone but severe damage has not been reported yet but is becoming possible in some areas. Reports indicate that bio fuels demand for Soybean Oil is very strong despite the moves in Washington to keep bio fuels demand at more moderate levels and is pushing domestic demand for Soybeans. Brazil basis levels are still low and the US is being shut out of the market for most importers. Brazil is still selling a lot of Soybeans to China and other countries. Brazil has a very good crop, but the additional Soybeans grown in Brazil will be partially wiped out by the losses in Argentina.
Overnight News: Unknown destinations bought 272,000 tons of Soybeans and USDA said that 229,000 tons of Soybeans were received for sale to unknown destinations.
Chart Analysis: Trends in Soybeans are up with objectives of 1552 and 1600 August. Support is at 1501, 1474, and 1440 August, and resistance is at 1537, 1548, and 1560 August. Trends in Soybean Meal are mixed. Support is at 444.00, 439.00, and 424.00 August, and resistance is at 456.00, 459.00, and 462.00 August. Trends in Soybean Oil are up with no objectives. Support is at 6960, 6760, and 6660 August, with resistance at 7280, 7340, and 7400 August.

CANOLA AND PALM OIL
General Comments: Palm Oil was lower yesterday after a moderate range day. The market remains in a trading range but held support. Ideas are that export demand has improved as the private sources reported at 10.8% increase in exports for the month to date yesterday. Canola was lower on Chicago price action and despite dry Prairies growing conditions. Drier weather is generally forecast for the Prairies. Trends are turning down for the short term on the daily charts.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Canola are mixed to down with objectives of 787.00 and 753.00 November. Support is at 793.00, 779.00, and 770.00 November, with resistance at 822.00, 838.00, and 855.00 November. Trends in Palm Oil are mixed to up with objectives of 4290 October. Support is at 4060, 3950, and 3830 October, with resistance at 4210, 4270, and 4330 October.

Midwest Weather Forecast Mostly dry. Temperatures should average above normal.

More By This Author:

Softs Report - Tuesday, July 25
Grains Report - Monday, July 24
Softs Report - Friday, July 21