Grains Report - Wednesday, Aug. 25

WHEAT
General Comments: Wheat was mixed on ideas of increasing demand potential as world prices rallied on short supplies, especially in Russia. The demand has not been seen here, so the Winter Wheat markets have not been able to do more than hold in a range Dry weather in southern Russia as well as the northern US Great Plains and Canadian Prairies remains a supportive feature in the market although the US and Canada are seeing some showers this week. Crop size estimates in Russia have been reduced and domestic Russian prices are above world prices. The Russian weather has been good for production in northern and western areas but is still trending dry in southern areas and into Kazakhstan. Some showers are no in the forecast for the drier areas but are not expected to help much. The weather in China and Europe is wet and there is potential for reduced quality in Europe. Europe is expecting top yields in some areas but less yield in others and parts of eastern Europe and northern Russia are expecting strong yields.
Overnight News: The southern Great Plains should get isolated showers. Temperatures should be near to above
normal. Northern areas should see mostly dry conditions. Temperatures will be near normal. The Canadian Prairies should see isolated showers or dry conditions. Temperatures should average near to below normal.
Chart Analysis: Trends in Chicago are mixed. Support is at 709, 695, and 690 September, with resistance at 732, 735, and 756 September. Trends in Kansas City are mixed. Support is at 688, 678, and 658 September, with resistance at 725, 735, and 756 September. Trends in Minneapolis are mixed. Support is at 905, 891, and 888 September, and resistance is at 936, 95, and 960 September.

Photo by Sandy Ravaloniaina on Unsplash

RICE
General Comments: Rice closed mixed with spreads between September and November the most active trade. Harvesting continues in Louisiana and Texas. A delayed harvest is expected in Mississippi and Arkansas. The harvest is now expanding through southern growing areas. Initial yield reports and quality reports have been acceptable to many in Texas and are called good in Louisiana. Smut has been reported in Texas but the smut is coming off the grain in the cleaning process. The smut problem appears to be worse around Houston. The harvest pace is expected to be slow due to ongoing showers in both regions and farther into the north. Ideas of average yields are also heard in Arkansas and Mississippi. Growing conditions have been mixed at best with many areas getting too much rain. Chart trends are sideways. Asian prices were a little higher last week.
Overnight News: The Delta should get isolated showers. Temperatures should be near to below normal.
Chart Analysis: Trends are mixed. Support is at 1318, 1308, and 1294 September, with resistance at 1355, 1358, and 1368 September.

CORN AND OATS
General Comments: Corn was higher on fund buying. Much of the rally was caused by the big rally in Soybeans. The weather remains a feature of the trade but is less important now as pollination is done and the Corn is filling kernels and starting to mature. Some forecasts call for improved weather, especially in the western belt. The growing conditions in the US are highly variable and not likely to produce trend line or record yields. It is still too dry in many areas of the west and drier weather is expected in the east. Some showers are in the forecast for the west but it is still hot. Ideas are that Brazil Corn production could be less than 85 million tons so reduced production estimates are expected in coming reports. Oats were mostly higher as the weather remains bad for production even with the crop near or in harvest. The uncertain weather in the northern Great Plains and Canadian Prairies remains the best support for the market. Canadian Oats areas and those in the northern Great Plains remain too hot and dry. Some rain is now in the forecast but is too little and too late to materially help crops.
Overnight News: Mexico bought 125,000 tons of US Corn.
Chart Analysis: Trends in Corn are mixed to down with objectives of 495 September. Support is at 537, 531, and 516 September, and resistance is at 550, 557, and 561 September. Trends in Oats are mixed. Support is at 494, 489, and 475 September, and resistance is at 520, 526, and 532 September.

SOYBEANS
General Comments: Soybeans and the products all shot higher yesterday with Soybean Oil and Soybeans the leaders. There was no single cause for the rally as the market got sold out and funds returned to the buy side with a vengeance. China bought another two shipments of Soybeans but demand is still weaker than expected overall. Demand threats mostly surfaced late in the week and were caused by reports that the EPA was about to submit to the White House new bio fuels blending requirements that could call for less bio fuels demand. Crude Oil was up a lot again yesterday, so Soybean Oil was able to rally again. US weather is still a feature in the market as it remains hot in the west and is dry in just about all areas now. Western areas could get some showers this week, but eastern areas look to stay drier. Soybeans conditions in central production area started the year too wet and have suffered some production losses
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Soybeans are mixed. Support is at 1312, 1296, and 1281 September, and resistance is at 1345, 1358, and 1368 September. Trends in Soybean Meal are mixed. Support is at 347.00, 342.00, and 341.00 September, and resistance is at 359.00, 364.00, and 365.00 September. Trends in Soybean Oil mixed. Support is at 5980, 5870, and 5710 September, with resistance at 6200, 6320, and 6440 September

CANOLA AND PALM OIL
General Comments: Palm Oil closed lower yesterday on demand concerns, but rallied along with Soybean Oil today. Exports so far this month have not been strong. Futures are still a trading range market on ideas of tight supplies due to labor problems. There are just not enough workers in the fields due to Coronavirus restrictions. Production has also been down to more than offset the export losses so prices have trended higher. Canola closed higher again on price action in Chicago and on stressful crop growing conditions in the Prairies. It has been a hot and dry Summer to date but some showers are in the forecast for this week. Production ideas are down due to the extreme weather seen in these areas. It remains generally dry and warm in the Prairies.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Canola are mixed. Support is at 867.00, 850.00, and 823.00 November, with resistance at 908.00, 940.00, and 949.00 November. Trends in Palm Oil are mixed. Support is at 4160, 4050, and 3970 November, with resistance at 4360, 4430, and 4530 November.

Disclaimer: A Subsidiary of Price Holdings, Inc. – a Diversified Financial Services Firm. Member NIBA, NFA Past results are not necessarily indicative of future results. Investing in ...

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