Grains Report - Wednesday, Aug. 18

WHEAT
General Comments: Wheat was lower as world markets turned weaker. The European market moved lower and took the US Wheat markets down as well. Dry weather in southern Russia as well as the northern US Great Plains and Canadian Prairies remains a supportive feature in the market. Trends in Winter Wheat markets are still mixed. Crop size estimates in Russia have been reduced. The Russian weather has been good for production in northern and western areas but is still trending dry in southern areas and into Kazakhstan. Some showers are no in the forecast for the drier areas over the next week, then showers and cooler temperatures are in the forecast. The weather in China and Europe is wet and there is potential for reduced quality in Europe. Europe is expecting top yields in some areas but less yield in others as are parts of eastern Europe and northern Russia. It has been very cold in South America and the winter crops are in trouble in Brazil and Paraguay. US White Winter Wheat production is also being hurt by hot and dry weather, but a cold front could bring some relief in several days.
Overnight News: The southern Great Plains should get isolated showers. Temperatures should be near to above
normal. Northern areas should see mostly dry conditions. Temperatures will be near normal. The Canadian Prairies should see isolated showers or dry conditions. Temperatures should average near to below normal.
Chart Analysis: Trends in Chicago are mixed. Support is at 739, 730, and 7324 September, with resistance at 772, 778, and 784 September. Trends in Kansas City are mixed. Support is at 702, 688, and 678 September, with resistance at 735, 756, and 764 September. Trends in Minneapolis are mixed. Support is at 920, 905, and 891 September, and resistance is at 936, 95, and 960 September.

Photo by Sandy Ravaloniaina on Unsplash

RICE
General Comments: Rice closed lower on US Dollar strength. The stronger Dollar makes US Rice that much more expensive in the world market. The harvest is now expanding through southern growing areas. Initial yield reports and quality reports have not been real good. Smut has been reported in Texas but the smut is coming off the grain in the cleaning process. The smut problem appears to be worse around Houston. The trends are mixed in the market. Traders expect average to weak production. The harvest got started in Texas and southern Louisiana. The harvest pace is expected to be slow due to ongoing showers in both regions. Ideas of average yields at best are also heard in Arkansas and Mississippi. Growing conditions have been mixed at best with many areas getting too much rain. Asian prices are mostly steady this week.
Overnight News: The Delta should get isolated showers. Temperatures should be near to below normal.
Chart Analysis: Trends are mixed to up with objectives of 1362, 1387, and 1390 September. Support is at 1341, 1337, and 1335 September, with resistance at 1368, 1389, and 1394 September.

CORN AND OATS
General Comments: Corn was lower yesterday on what appeared to be some speculative selling tied to better than expected results from the western leg of the Pro Farmer tour. The tourists found reduced Corn and Soybeans yield potential in South Dakota, but the potential was better than the trade had expected. The tour found strong potential for very good crops in both Nebraska and Indiana yesterday. USDA reduced its good to excellent ratings for Corn yesterday, but the tour was more important in the minds of the traders. Trends are still mostly up on the charts. The weather remains a feature of the trade. Some forecasts call for improved weather, especially in the eastern belt. The growing conditions in the US are highly variable and not likely to produce trend line or record yields. It is still too dry in many areas of the west and drier weather is expected in the east. It should stay hot in the west and cool in the east. Ideas are that Brazil Corn production could be less than 85 million tons so reduced production estimates are expected in coming reports. Oats were higher on ideas of small production. The uncertain weather in the northern Great Plains and Canadian Prairies remains the best support for the market. Canadian Oats areas and those in the northern Great Plains remain too hot and dry. Some rain is now in the forecast but is too little and too late to materially help crops.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Corn are mixed to up with objectives of 594, 607, and 615 September. Support is at 550, 544, and 540 September, and resistance is at 575, 579, and 589 September. Trends in Oats are up with objectives of 509 September. Support is at 494, 475, and 467 September, and resistance is at 520, 526, and 532 September.

SOYBEANS
General Comments: Soybeans and Soybean Oil were lower in response to the Pro Farmer tour finding better than expected crops in South Dakota, but Soybean Meal was higher on spreads against Soybean Oil. Chart trends remain mostly sideways in all three markets. US weather is still a feature in the market as it remains hot in the west and is dry in just about all areas now. Eastern Midwest areas should be cooler and parts of central Illinois turned too wet again after some big rains on Thursday night. Soybeans conditions in central production area started the year too wet and have suffered. Minnesota and nod the Dakotas are hot and dry. The Pro Farmer crop tour found good production potential in Ohio and mixed but generally better than expected production potential in South Dakota on Monday. The tour found strong potential for very good crops in both Nebraska and Indiana yesterday.
Overnight News: China bought 131,000 tons of US Soybeans.
Chart Analysis: Trends in Soybeans are mixed to up with objectives of 1428 and 1483 September. Support is at 1355, 1335, and 12330 September, and resistance is at 1388, 1394, and 1431 September. Trends in Soybean Meal are mixed. Support is at 352.00, 347.00, and 342.00 September, and resistance is at 364.00, 365.00, and 371.00 September. Trends in Soybean Oil mixed. Support is at 6200, 6100, and 6010 September, with resistance at 6440, 6520, and 6650 September.

CANOLA AND PALM OIL
General Comments: Palm Oil closed higher yesterday, but lower today on less than expected exports as reported by the private sources. Futures are still a trading range market on ideas of tight supplies due to labor problems. There are just not enough workers in the fields due to Coronavirus restrictions. Production has also been down to more than offset the export losses so prices have trended higher. Canola closed higher on damaging weather continues in the Canadian Prairies and northern Great Plains. Production ideas are down due to the extreme weather seen in these areas. It remains generally dry and warm in the Prairies. The Prairies crops are in big trouble now due to previous hot and dry weather and the rains are coming too late.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Canola are mixed to up with objectives of 961.00 November. Support is at 901.00, 888.00, and 867.00 November, with resistance at 940.00, 949.00, and 953.00 November. Trends in Palm Oil are up with objectives of 4690 November. Support is at 4320, 290, and 4190 November, with resistance at 4520, 4580, and 4640 November.

Disclaimer: A Subsidiary of Price Holdings, Inc. – a Diversified Financial Services Firm. Member NIBA, NFA Past results are not necessarily indicative of future results. Investing in ...

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