Grains Report - Tuesday, Oct. 7
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WHEAT
General Comments: Wheat closed a little lower yesterday. Increased US production and supplies were seen in the USDA reports released last Monday. Reports of stronger Russian prices continue. Russian sources told wire services that producers there are set to reduce offers and production due to low prices and problems with the government. This now seems to be happening. Sovecon reduced its export estimate for Russia for the first time after increasing it in previous reports. It remains too dry in Winter Wheat areas and too wet in Spring Wheat areas of Russia, but crop size ideas are expected to increase due to reports of big yields in Spring Wheat growing areas. A French government report showed plenty of production but lower quality. Rains have been good in the northern Great Plains and Canada, but western areas have been a little too dry for best yield potential and the northern Plains had hot and dry areas earlier in the year. It was hot again in the Great plains last weekend. Southern hemisphere crops appear to be good and Australia estimates that production this year will be high and potentially a record.
Chart Analysis: Trends in Chicago are mixed to down. Support is at 502, 499 and 493 December, with resistance at 532, 535, and 543 December. Trends in Kansas City are mixed to down. Support is at 484, 478, and 472 December, with resistance at 501, 507, and 515 December. Trends in Minneapolis are not available.
RICE
General Comments: Rice was lower and closed at new lows for the move yesterday. The harvest is wrapping up in Texas and southern Louisiana. Harvest is starting to wrap up in Mississippi and Arkansas. Yields and quality are mixed, but quality appears better than a year ago. The cash market has been slow with low bids from buyers in domestic markets and average or less export demand. Louisiana reports good but not great yields and quality. Milling quality of the old crop Rice remains below industry standards and it takes more Rough Rice to create the grain for sale to stores and exporters.
Chart Analysis: Trends are mixed to down. Support is at 1085, 1076, and 1064 November and resistance is at 1126, 1145, and 1159 November.
CORN AND OATS
General Comments: Corn was a little higher yesterday. The export inspections report showed strong demand for US Corn. USDA discovered larger than expected September stocks last week and the harvest has outweighed strong demand ideas until now. The crop is maturing and the harvest is expanding. There are ideas that US production might not be super strong due to disease such as rust to offset the demand losses. Temperatures should average near to below normal this week and there are forecasts for scattered showers. Most of the western Midwest has seen adequate or greater precipitation and production ideas are high. Areas east of the Mississippi River have been very dry for the last month or more. Demand for Corn in world markets remains moderate to strong. Oats were lower.
Chart Analysis: Trends in Corn are mixed to down. Support is at 411, 408, and 405 December, and resistance is at 423, 428, and 431 December. Trends in Oats are down. Support is at 283, 277, and 271 December, and resistance is at 308, 311, and 316 December.
SOYBEANS
General Comments: Soybeans and Soybean Meal were lower yesterday, but Soybean Oil closed higher. USDA showed that export inspections were in line with expectations. The USDA stocks report released last week was a little bullish and was part of the reason for the rally. President Trump said that he plans to talk to President Xi of China about Chinese purchase of US Soybeans, but reports indicate that their meeting of the two leaders at the end of the month will be brief if the meeting happens at all. There are still no indications that China was changing its trade policies and shown no interest in buying US ag products. Forecasts call for a little rain to be seen in the Midwest this week. Cool and dry weather has been seen recently in the Midwest. The dry weather could hurt pod fill and bean size. Argentina has removed taxes on Soybeans exports and China immediately bought up to 40 cargoes. China has not bought US Soybeans yet and traders are worried that demand for the new crop will be a lot less this year. Good growing conditions continue in the Midwest with cool and mostly dry weather in the forecast. Prices are still higher in Brazil, but China and other buyers are still buying there for political reasons. Export demand remains less for US Soybeans as China has been taking almost all the export from South America due to the Trump tariff regime.
Analysis: Trends in Soybeans are mixed to up. Support is at 994, 981, and 970 November, and resistance is at 1029, 1036, and 1042 November. Trends in Soybean Meal are mixed. Support is at 271.00, 268.00, and 265.00 December, and resistance is at 282.00, 286.00, and 290.00 December. Trends in Soybean Oil are mixed. Support is at 4920, 4890, and 4770 December, with resistance at 5110, 5220, and 5390 December.
PALM OIL AND CANOLA
General Comments: Palm Oil futures were higher today on ideas that a seasonal decrease in production is coming along with a seasonal increase in demand for festivals. Reports that Indonesia was moving to require 50% biofuels in blends of gasoline were positive. Canola was higher. Concerns remain about demand potential. The Canadian government is moving now to support farmers in the face of the Chinese demand loss and also in the face of the Trump tariffs. Trends are mixed to down on the daily charts and on the weekly charts.
Chart Analysis: Trends in Canola are down. Support is at 596.00, 590.00, and 584.00 November, with resistance at 630.00, 640.00, and 653.00 November. Trends in Palm Oil are mixed to down. Support is at 4320, 4200, and 4160 December, with resistance at 4480, 4530, and 4580 December.
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