Grains Report - Tuesday, Nov. 2
WHEAT
General Comments: Wheat closed sharply higher yesterday and trends are still up in all three markets. Minneapolis Spring Wheat was the leader and is in a post harvest rally that has been very impressive. The Winter Wheat markets are also showing impressive chart formations that promise much more upside potential. Ideas that the US will have good demand for Wheat as the rest of the northern hemisphere is short production this year. Offer volumes are down from both Russia and Europe. Dry weather in southern Russia as well as the northern US Great Plains and Canadian Prairies remains a supportive feature in the market although the weather has become old news. The Russian weather has been good for production in northern and western areas and is finally starting to improve in southern areas and into Kazakhstan in time for the next crop. Siberian Spring Wheat conditions have been very good. Europe is expecting top yields in some areas but less yield in others and parts of eastern Europe and northern Russia are expecting strong yields. European quality is a problem due to too much rain in some areas and not enough in others. Speculators keep talking about inflation and are buying commodities for an inflation trade.
Overnight News: The southern Great Plains should get mostly dry conditions or isolated showers. Temperatures should trend from below to above normal. Northern areas should see isolated showers or dry conditions. Temperatures will trend from below to above normal. The Canadian Prairies should see isolated showers or dry conditions. Temperatures should trend from below to above normal.
Chart Analysis: Trends in Chicago are up with objectives of 807 December. Support is at 786, 780, and 745 December, with resistance at 800, 806, and 812 December. Trends in Kansas City are up with objectives of 824 and 854 December. Support is at 794, 786, and 767 December, with resistance at 8012, 818, and 824 December. Trends in Minneapolis are up with no objectives. Support is at 1047, 1032, and 1011 December, and resistance is at 1082, 1088, and 10594 December.
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RICE
General Comments: Rice was a little lower in consolidation trading again yesterday. Short term down trends are down on the charts but the chart show limited potential for more selling to be effective and ideas are that a bottom could come with the current test of support. Weekly chart trends are sideways to down. Ideas are that demand is not yet strong enough to take up the supply available to the market. The crop has been largely harvested in all states. Yield reports and quality reports have been acceptable to many in Texas and are called good in Louisiana. The reports have been good in both Arkansas and Mississippi although there have been some milling problems as milling yields have been generally low.
Overnight News: The Delta should get mostly dry conditions or isolated showers. Temperatures should be near to above normal.
Chart Analysis: Trends are mixed to down with objectives of 1340 and 1326 January. Support is at 1345, 1338, and 1331 January and resistance is at 1354, 1368, and 1372 January.
CORN AND OATS:
General Comments: Corn and Oats closed higher yesterday on demand ideas and as supplies of Oats remain tight. Corn also has relatively tight supplies as farmers are harvesting and not selling. Oats were higher on a lack of supply available to the market from the northern US Great Plains and the Canadian Prairies while Corn is still finding some support from strong ethanol demand. Export demand was not strong last week but has been improved in recent reports. Trends are up on the daily and weekly charts for both markets. Traders keep talking about new demand for the market from exporters and noted that the demand for ethanol production was very strong. Demand will be an increasing feature in the trade moving forward as the harvest moves to completion sometime next month. Initial yield reports have been mixed but good, with some lower yields reported due to disease but some higher than expected yields reported in western areas. Most of the elevators along the Mississippi are exporting again which is good news for nearby demand. There are a lot of ideas that production and planted and harvested area will be significantly less next year due to the lack of fertilizers available and the cost of production.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Corn are up with objectives of 582 and 624 December. Support is at 569, 554, and 548 December, and resistance is at 582, 594, and 5600 December. Trends in Oats are up with objectives of 792 December. Support is at 723, 708, and 686 December, and resistance is at 768, 774, and 780 December.
SOYBEANS
General Comments: Soybeans closed a little lower yesterday and the products were mixed, with Soybean Oil higher and Soybean Meal lower. The weekly charts imply that Soybeans are constructing a harvest low right now but the low has not been completed yet. Ideas of strong demand from China were supportive but there were only two sales announcements last week and n e yesterday. The weekly export sales report was less than trade expectations. .The weekly charts still show down trends for all three markets, and the daily chart trends are mixed. Harvest has moved well past the half way point for Soybeans and a harvest low might be seen during the second half of the harvest. However, the low will probably not be as low as the previous low seen a few weeks ago. Reports indicate that farmers are limited sellers at best. Gulf port elevators are coming on line and export sales and exports are increasing. Planting and initial crop development is going very well in Brazil. It has been dry in Argentina and panting could be slower there when the time comes.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Soybeans are mixed. Support is at 1236, 1227, and 12322 January, and resistance is at 1266, 1274, and 1292 January. Trends in Soybean Meal are mixed. Support is at 328.00, 323.00, and 320.00 December, and resistance is at 334.00 338.00, and 341.00 December. Trends in Soybean Oil are mixed. Support is at 6050, 5920, and 5850 December, with resistance at 6360, 6400, and 6500 December.
CANOLA AND PALM OIL
General Comments: Palm Oil was lower today in response to weak monthly export data from the private sources. Support still comes from ideas that supply and demand are in balance or supplies are short. India was the major importer as the country reduced import taxes. It has also reduced import taxes now for Soybean Oil and Canola Oil and this has caused some demand worries for Palm. The weekly chart trends are up. There are ideas of tight supplies due to labor problems. There are just not enough workers in the fields due to Coronavirus restrictions. Production has also been down to more than offset the export losses so prices have trended higher. Canola closed higher again as the harvest is starting to wind down. Farmers are bullish and reluctant to sell because of the sharp reduction in Canola production in Canada this year. The weekly chart trends are up.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Canola are up with objectives of 1058 and 1182 January. Support is at 963.00, 9348.00, and 938.00 January, with resistance at 978.00, 984.00, and 990.00 January. Trends in Palm Oil are mixed. Support is at 4820, 4740, and 4630 January, with resistance at 5070, 5090, and 5220 January.
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