Photo by Sandy Ravaloniaina on Unsplash

WHEAT

General Comments: Wheat markets mostly traded freely again yesterday but still closed with strong gains on the day on more reports that the Russian invasion was taking longer and was more bloody than expected.  Chicago May opened locked limit up and never traded below that level as short funds and other speculators try to get out of these positions.  That is three days of locked limit moves for the Chicago May contract.  Wheat closed sharply higher for the week due to the potential loss of up to a third of the available export supply to the world market.  Ports are closed in Ukraine and Russian shippers and exporters are not offering in part due to sanctions but mostly due to the war and the chance to lose ships.  Plus, Russian internal markets are frozen and it will take some time to get going again.  Mr. Biden said that the US would not embargo Crude Oil or agricultural products trade from the world market but the lack of Russian offers makes an embargo a moot point right now.  The US is starting to think again about its stance on Russian Crude Oil exports as the war rages on.  Mr. Putin appears to have decided that Ukraine will be part of Russia and should never have been allowed to leave the Soviet Union.  Ukraine is fighting but will be badly outnumbered.  The human losses are going to be high for both sides in this conflict. Ukrainians have no interest in living under Russian occupation so the war could be deadly and very costly to both sides.  Russia and Ukraine are both major Wheat exporters so the Wheat market could be damaged.  

Overnight News:  The southern Great Plains should get mostly dry conditions.  Temperatures should average above normal.  Northern areas should see isolated showers in northern areas. Temperatures will average near to above normal.  The Canadian Prairies should see isolated to scattered showers.  Temperatures should average below normal.  Philippines bought 193,000 tons of US HRS Wheat.

Chart Analysis:  Trends in Chicago are up with no objectives.  Support is at 1209, 1134, and 1070 May, with resistance at 1300, 1312, and 1324 May.  Trends in Kansas City are up with no objectives.  Support is at 1203, 10158, and 1076 May, with resistance at 1300, 1312, and 1324 May.  Trends in Minneapolis are up with objectives of 1224 May.  Support is at 1153, 1114, and 1052 May, and resistance is at 1214, 1226, and 1238 May.

RICE

General Comments: Rice was lower yesterday. Selling came from the higher US Dollar and on ideas that the US is pricing itself out of the world market for Rice. The buying was due to the Russian invasion of Ukraine as the situation seems to get worse by the day and looks like it will take some time to resolve.  The cash market is showing that domestic mill business is around everywhere in good volumes.  Producer sales are reported to have been way ahead of average early in the marketing year so stocks on hand in first hands are reported to be lower than normal.

Overnight News: The Delta should get mostly dry conditions. Temperatures should be near to above normal.

Chart Analysis: Trends are mixed.  Support is at 1605, 1577 and 1548 May and resistance is at 1639, 1689, and 1700 May.

CORN AND OATS

General Comments: Corn closed mixed as Russia remains bogged down in its war with Ukraine. Russia is still advancing but the resistance from the Ukrainians is much more fierce than expected and the Russian army has been very surprised.  The potential loss of Ukraine exports of Corn makes the world situation tighter and could be enough to keep Corn prices trending higher for now.  Ukraine might not plant much if any Corn this Summer, too.  Russia is also a Corn exporter and no product is moving from either country at this time  Crop losses in South America are noted.  Planted area there as well as in the US is in question due to the high costs and the lack of availability of inputs for growing a successful crop.

Chart Analysis:  Trends in Corn are mixed to up with objectives of 813 May.  Support is at 726, 716, and 691 May, and resistance is at 784, 792, and 804 May.  Trends in Oats are mixed.  Support is at 625, 613, and 603 May, and resistance is at 683, 697, and 702 May.

SOYBEANS

General Comments: Soybeans and both products were lower on yesterday on follow through long liquidation and some selling by Brazilian and US producers and going against the war between Ukraine and Russia heating up and as Russia got into a longer war than anticipated in Ukraine.  The war has supported Soybeans and world vegetable oils as Russia and Ukraine both export Sunflower Oil.  The two countries account for about 80% of all world Sun oil exports.  The US is not real interested in curbing Russian exports as part of the sanctions but nothing is moving from either country as the companies effectively embargo themselves from doing business in either country.  The world situation is still tightening as Brazil and Argentina are getting into the harvest of less Soybeans.  Paraguay might import Soybeans this year from Argentina.  Higher Soybeans prices are still possible due to the war and the overall supply and demand situation.

Overnight News: Unknown destinations bought 126,000 tons of US Soybeans.  China compro 132,000 toneladas de frijol de soya.

Chart Analysis: Trends in Soybeans are mixed.  Support is at 1634, 1597, and 1579 May, and resistance is at 1699, 1724, and 1759 May.  Trends in Soybean Meal are mixed. Support is at 455.00, 443.00, and 436.00 May, and resistance is at 471.00 475.00, and 489.00 May. Trends in Soybean Oil are mixed.  Support is at 7200, 7000, and 6820 May, with resistance at 7730, 7820, and 7940 May.

CANOLA AND PALM OIL

General Comments: Palm Oil was lower yesterday on weaker US Soybean Oil prices and despite stronger Crude Oil futures and ideas of short world vegetable oil supplies due to the loss of 80% of the world Sunflower trade due to the war between Russia and Ukraine.  Demand for export was stronger last month.  Demand in Malaysia could improve soon as Indonesia is expected to keep most Palm Oil at home.  Indonesia is once again making moves to cut the availability of Palm Oil for export as it seeks to keep more at home for bio fuels purposes.  Traders are mostly worried about demand from India who has been buying Soybean Oil in the US instead of Palm Oil from Malaysia and Indonesia and is also worried about China and its demand for Palm Oil for bio fuels.  Canola was higher on ideas of reduced Sunflower export potential from Russia and Ukraine due to the war.  The market is worried about South American production as well.  Canola chart patterns were much like those for Soybeans last week but the markets diverged yesterday.  Trends in Canola are trying to turn up again.

Chart Analysis: Trends in Canola are mixed to up with objectives of 1107.00, 1131.00, and 1144.00 May.  Support is at 1085.00, 1055.00, and 1044.00 May, with resistance at 1116.00, 1128.00, and 1140.00 May.  Trends in Palm Oil are mixed.  Support is at 6170, 6000, and 5810 May, with resistance at 6660, 7110, and 7180 May.