WHEAT

General Comments: Wheat markets were sharply higher on reports that the Russian invasion was taking longer and was more bloody than expected.  Ports have been closed in Ukraine and Russian shippers and exporters are not offering in part due to sanctions but mostly due to the war and the chance to lose ships.  Plus, Russian internal markets are frozen and it will take some time to get going again..  Russia said it would try to negotiate with Ukraine now with the invasion underway but initial meetings on Sunday night yielded no agreement for a ceasefire.  Mr Biden said that the US would not embargo Crude Oil or agricultural products trade from the world market but the lack of Russian offers makes an embargo a mute point right now.  Higher prices seem likely down the road.  Mr Putin appears to have decided that Ukraine will be part of Russia should never been allowed to leave the Soviet Union.  Ukraine appears ready to fight but will be badly outnumbered. Ukrainians have no interest in living under Russian occupation so the war could be deadly and very costly to both sides.  Russia and Ukraine are both major Wheat exporters so the Wheat market could be damaged. It remains dry in the western Great Plains but some precipitation is expected.  Ideas had been that the US will have good demand for Wheat as the rest of the northern hemisphere is short production this year but so far demand has been average or less against previous years.  Dry weather in southern Russia as well as the US Great Plains and Canadian Prairies caused a lot less production. 

Overnight News:  The southern Great Plains should get mostly dry conditions.  Temperatures should average above normal.  Northern areas should see isolated showers in northern areas. Temperatures will average near to above normal.  The Canadian Prairies should see isolated to scattered showers.  Temperatures should average below normal.

Chart Analysis:  Trends in Chicago are mixed.  Support is at 885, 860, and 854 May, with resistance at 935, 961, and 972 May.  Trends in Kansas City are mixed.  Support is at 917, 891, and 869 May, with resistance at 967, 981, and 992 May.  Trends in Minneapolis are mixed.  Support is at 975, 960, and 955 May, and resistance is at 1029, 1053, and 1063 May.

Photo by Sandy Ravaloniaina on Unsplash

RICE

General Comments: Rice was higher again yesterday and trends are trying to turn up on the daily charts.  The buying was due to the Russian invasion of Ukraine as the situation seemed to get worse over the weekend and looks like it will take some time to resolve.  The cash market is showing that domestic mill business is around everywhere but not real active anywhere but the business is there and is getting done despite the higher priced offers.  Producer sales are reported to have been way ahead of average early in the marketing year so stocks on hand in first hands are reported to be lower than normal.

Overnight News:  The Delta should get mostly dry conditions. Temperatures should be below normal.

Chart Analysis:  Trends are mixed to up with objectives of 1630 May.  Support is at 1543, 1520, and 1501 May and resistance is at 1573, 1577, and 1590 May.

CORN AND OATS

General Comments:  Corn closed sharply higher after Russia became bogged down in its war with Ukraine.  Futures were limit up much of the day and My closed at limit up. Oats were sharply lower and continued the selling from last week.  The potential loss of Ukraine exports of Corn makes the world situation tighter and could be enough to keep Corn prices trending higher for now.  Russia is also a Corn exporter and no product is moving from either country at this time  The South American agricultural areas got an inch or less of precipitation last week and more showers and rains are expected next week.  Crop losses in South America are becoming more and more of a reality for the Corn market right now.  The Soybeans harvest farther north is being somewhat delayed due to wet weather and this might affect planting of the Safrinha crop in Brazil.  Planted area there as well as in the US is in question due to the high costs and the lack of availability of inputs for growing a successful crop.

Overnight News: 

Chart Analysis:  Trends in Corn are mixed.  Support is at 674, 655, and 648 May, and resistance is at 716, 722, and 728 May.  Trends in Oats are down with objectives of 606 May.  Support is at 613, 603, and 582 May, and resistance is at 647, 662, and 680 May.

SOYBEANS

General Comments:  Soybeans were higher the war between the west, Ukraine, and Russia heated up and as Russia got into a longer war than anticipated in Ukraine.  The war supported Soybeans and world vegetable oils as Russia and Ukraine both export Sunflower Oil.  The two countries account for about 80% of all world Sun oil exports.  The US is not real interested in curbing Russian exports as part of the sanctions but nothing is moving from either country as the companies effectively embargo themselves from doing business in either country.  The world situation is still tightening as Brazil and Argentina are getting into the harvest of less Soybeans.  Paraguay might import Soybeans this year from Argentina.  Higher Soybeans prices are still possible due to the war and the overall supply and demand situation.

Overnight News:  China bought 264,000 tons of US new crop

Chart Analysis:  Trends in Soybeans are mixed.  Support is at 1597, 1579, and 1546 May, and resistance is at 1660, 1672, and 1759 May.  Trends in Soybean Meal are mixed. Support is at 443.00, 436.00, and 429.00 May, and resistance is at 455.00 475.00, and 487.00 May.  Trends in Soybean Oil are mixed.  Support is at 7000, 6790, and 6660 May, with resistance at 7460, 7580, and 7700 May.

CANOLA AND PALM OIL

General Comments:  Palm Oil was higher yesterday on demand ideas and the Russian invasion of Ukraine.  Demand for export was stronger last month.  Demand in Malaysia could improve soon as Indonesia is expected to keep most Palm Oil at home.  Indonesia is once again making moves to cut the availability of Palm Oil for export as it seeks to keep more at home for bio fuels purposes.  There are still poor production conditions in Malaysia and Indonesia.  Traders are mostly worried about demand from India who has been buying Soybean Oil in the US instead of Palm Oil from Malaysia and Indonesia and is also worried about China and its demand for Palm Oil for bio fuels.  Canola was much higher along with Chicago and Malaysia and on ideas of reduced Sunflower export potential from Russia and Ukraine due to the war  The market is worried about South American production as well.

Overnight News:

Chart Analysis:  Trends in Canola are mixed.  Support is at 1014.00, 1004.00, and 992.00 May, with resistance at 1060.00, 1092.00, and 1104.00 May.  Trends in Palm Oil are mixed.  Support is at 6000, 5810, and 5710 May, with resistance at 6350, 6470, and 6580 May.