Grains Report - Tuesday, June 21

WHEAT
General Comments: Wheat markets were sharply lower on Friday and lower for the week as the Winter Wheat harvest is underway. The harvest was 10% complete in Monday USDA data and futures should form harvest low earlier in the harvest due to the small crop size. Yield reports have been OK in Kansas as recent rains have helped kernel size and test weight. USDA noted mostly stable conditions for the Winter Wheat crops on Monday but noted Spring Wheat planting remained far behind average. The US western Great Plains got some rainfall and the rains fell in some of the areas most in need of some precipitation. Hot and dry weather could return this week. It is turning warmer and drier farther north to give hope to Spring Wheat farmers that they can plant crops. Europe is too hot and dry and India and Pakistan are both past major heat waves and dry conditions.
Overnight News: The southern Great Plains should get mostly dry conditions. Temperatures should average above normal. Northern areas should see isolated showers or dry conditions. Temperatures will average above normal. The Canadian Prairies should see isolated showers. Temperatures should average above normal.
Chart Analysis: Trends in Chicago are mixed. Support is at 1027, 1023, and 1018 July, with resistance at 1085, 1093, and 1108 July. Trends in Kansas City are mixed. Support is at 1087, 1083, and 1068 July, with resistance at 1127, 1159, and 1163 July. Trends in Minneapolis are mixed to down with objectives of 1141 and 1083 July. Support is at 1153, 1130, and 1093 July, and resistance is at 1199, 1218, and 1227 July.

variety of assorted-color beans

Photo by Maddi Bazzocco on Unsplash

RICE
General Comments: Rice was lower Friday and near unchanged for the week after failing to take out some resistance areas on the charts earlier in the week. Trends are turning down on the charts. Growing conditions are said to be deteriorating due to hot and dry weather in Texas expanding to include Arkansas. There are still ideas of less production of US Rice this year. The emergence remains behind and acreage estimates are still down for the next crop. Some traders note that it will be difficult to move Rice at current price levels and they are worried about domestic and export demand moving forward.
Overnight News: The Delta should get mostly dry conditions. Temperatures should be above normal.
Chart Analysis: Trends are mixed to down with objectives of 1582, 1580, and 1532 July. Support is at 1608, 1603, and 1594 July and resistance is at 1641, 1661, and 1672 July.

CORN AND OATS
General Comments: Corn closed higher in July on reports of a stronger US cash market and higher in new crop months on outlooks for hot and dry weather for the next month and three months. Corn has emerged under what is considered good conditions but it has turned hot in the Midwest. This will be good for a while but continued hot and dry weather could hurt yields down the road. Stress coluld start to de4velop next week if the hpt and dry weather returns as forecast. The areas left to be planted are primarily in the Dakotas and will not get planted as the insurance planting dates have passed. The risk to plant now would be much high er without the insurance and the high costs of inputs. There are also pockets of area left to be planted in the big production states. The weather was variable last week with periods of rain and very cool temperatures and then warm and dry conditions and hot and dry weather is expected this week after some rains in central areas on Monday. Many think the top end of the yield has been taken off the Corn crop due to the delayed planting but others look at the crop condition rating and expect improved yields. It already thinks there is reduced planted area because of the March planning intentions reports from USDA and the bad planting weather.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Corn are mixed to up with objectives of 802, 867, and 868 July. Support is at 780, 7371, and 756 July, and resistance is at 800, 810, and 814 July. Trends in Oats are mixed Support is at 645, 632, and 625 July, and resistance is at 677, 695, and 708 July.

SOYBEANS
General Comments: Soybeans were lower and Soybean Meal was higher last week as hot and dry weather invades the US but Soybean Oil was lower on weakness in petroleum markets and other vegetable oils markets. US cash market is still running low on Soybeans and there are still renewed Chinese lockdowns. There is less Chinese demand for Soy products due to the lockdowns there and China is starting to renew the lockdowns now as Covid cases have risen in number. China has been a major buyer of US Soybeans this year after a very slow start due to the problems in South America. They are buying for this year and already have booked a large amount of new crop Soybeans to cover future needs. Most of the current buying is for next year.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Soybeans are mixed. Support is at 1690, 1682, and 1674 July, and resistance is at 1729, 1743, and 1749 July. Trends in Soybean Meal are mixed to up with objectives of 442.00 July. Support is at 431.00, 425.00, and 419.00 July, and resistance is at 441.00 450.00, and 461.00 July. Trends in Soybean Oil are mixed to down with objectives of 7380, 7130, and 6910 July. Support is at 7280, 7000, and 6810 July, with resistance at 7660, 7860, and 7910 July.

CANOLA AND PALM OIL
General Comments: Palm Oil closed lower last week despite ideas of less Malaysian production due to worker shortages from Covid and on the potential for strong exports for the month from Malaysia. The market was lower again yesterday but rebounded on some speculative short covering today. The Indonesian government is now imposing a revised tax scheme on exporters to increase export sales and is allowing more export permits to be issued. Some analysts think Palm Oil is topping out anyway due to reduced demand ideas. Hopes for better demand from India keep the market supported, but Chinese demand could be less. A new Covid outbreak is reported in China and cities and infrastructure has been shut down, including some airports and water ports. The economy could slow down and affect demand. Production from Malaysia is expected to increase as well as the Covid lockdowns finally go away and as the weather is good for production. Canola was lower along with other vegetable oilseed markets. The crops are going in the ground and the growing conditions are much improved. It is reported to be very dry and has been cold for planting but better planting weather is coming now as it is now much warmer. There are ideas of reduced Sunflower export potential from Russia and Ukraine. The market is worried about South American production as well. Canada produced a very short crop of Canola last year so supplies are tight.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Canola are down with objectives of 980.00 July. Support is at 1034.00, 1043.00, and 1021.00 July, with resistance at 1080.00, 1090.00, and 1102.00 July. Trends in Palm Oil are down with no objectives. Support is at 5360, 5190, and 5100 September, with resistance at 5600, 5630, and 5760 September.

Disclaimer: A Subsidiary of Price Holdings, Inc. – a Diversified Financial Services Firm. Member NIBA, NFA Past results are not necessarily indicative of future results. Investing in ...

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