Grains Report - Tuesday, July 20
WHEAT
General Comments: Winter Wheat markets and Minneapolis Spring Wheat were all higher again yesterday as the weather in the northern Great Plains and Canadian Prairies remains bad for production and on better demand ideas. The bad weather is coming back as hot and dry conditions are in the forecast for the northern Great Plains and the Canadian Prairies for the next couple of weeks. White Winter Wheat production is also being hurt as both have been impacted by drought and heat this year. Yield reports have generally been good in Winter Wheat areas but there have been mixed results reported in some Great Plains states. Quality has been generally good. Europe has had too much rain and Russia and Kazakhstan have had too little. Kazakhstan has moved to limit Wheat exports for this year. World prices are expected to bottom soon and start to move higher, supporting Wheat futures markets in the US.
Overnight News: The southern Great Plains should get scattered showers. Temperatures should be near normal. Northern areas should see mostly isolated showers. Temperatures will be above normal. The Canadian Prairies should see isolated showers. Temperatures should average above normal.
Chart Analysis: Trends in Chicago are up with no objectives. Support is at 694, 676, and 658 September, with resistance at 709, 717, and 748 September. Trends in Kansas City are mixed to up with objectives of 681 September. Support is at 645, 638, and 619 September, with resistance at 669, 670, and 686 September. Trends in Minneapolis are up with no objectives. Support is at 897, 859, and 849 September, and resistance is at 948, 954, and 960 September.
Photo by Denes Kozma on Unsplash
RICE
General Comments: Rice closed lower yesterday in speculators sold due to the return of Covid and the potential for even weaker demand. Futures were higher for the week. Crude Oil and the stock market were sharply lower as well. Growing conditions have been mixed at best with many areas getting too much rain. Rice areas have generally been wet. Louisiana and parts of Mississippi were saturated and are still reported to be wetter than desired for strong production and good quality. Warm temperatures are reported in Arkansas and Missouri and the crop progress is improving. However, it is still very wet in Arkansas. Texas has also been wet. Export demand was disappointing in the weekly sales report last week and Asian prices are trending lower.
Overnight News: The Delta should get mostly dry conditions. Temperatures should be above normal.
Chart Analysis: Trends are mixed. Support is at 1298, 1295, and 1289 September, with resistance at 1321, 1334, and 1340 September.
CORN AND OATS
General Comments: Corn was unchanged to slightly higher in two-sided trading. Some traders noted that Corn in Illinois and along Interstate 80 appear to be in good condition. However, northern and western areas are turning hot and dry again. The stock market and Crude Oil sold off in a big way as Covid fears resurfaced as the Delta variant continues to spread. The weaker Crude Oil futures market kept ethanol demand ideas down. The weekly chart trends might be down now even though the growing conditions in the US are highly variable and not likely to produce trend line yields. The daily charts imply a recovery trade is coming before any new moves significantly lower. Traders are reducing yield estimates from the USDA report of 179.5 bushels per acre to more like 174 bushels per acre and ideas are that more adverse weather could drive yields lower. No one is talking much about increasing yield estimates right now. Ideas are that Brazil Corn production will be less than 90 million tons so reduced production estimates are expected in coming reports. Oats were higher once again. Canadian Oats areas look to get some rain in the next couple of weeks, but US areas showed mixed conditions in the weekly USDA updates. Longer range forecasts released by NWS call for warmer and drier weather for many important US growing areas this Summer.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Corn are mixed. Support is at 546, 540, and 528 September, and resistance is at 571, 579, and 588 September. Trends in Oats are mixed. Support is at 424, 403, and 396 September, and resistance is at 444, 452, and 458 September.
SOYBEANS
General Comments: Soybeans and the products moved lower on Covid and demand fears. Ideas are that Covid has returned and could hurt world economies again causing weaker demand around the world. There are many areas that do not have good Soybeans in the US. Soybeans conditions in central production area are often too wet and have suffered. The weather forecasts changed to wetter and cooler and the crop needs dry conditions and some heat . Minnesota and northern Iowa and the Dakotas have been very hot and dry but Iowa got very beneficial rain last week. Forecasts call for warmer weather this week in the Midwest and northern Great Plains, and it should generally be dry. Warmer and drier outlooks are offered through at least the end of this month. The longer-range forecasts from NWS call for warmer and drier than normal conditions for most Soybeans areas of the US.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Soybeans are mixed to up with objectives of 1530 August. Support is at 1425, 1418, and 1408 August, and resistance is at 1480, 1492, and 1504 August. Trends in Soybean Meal are mixed. Support is at 358.00, 351.00, and 347.00 August, and resistance is at 371.00, 375.00, and 379.00 August. Trends in Soybean Oil mixed to are up with objectives of 7090 August. Support is at 6600, 6380, and 6180 August, with resistance at 6970, 7030, and 7100 August.
CANOLA AND PALM OIL
General Comments: Palm Oil futures were closed for a holiday today. Trends are up on the daily charts. The private surveyors showed more demand for last month in reports issued last week and ideas are that the stronger demand can continue as India has cut its import taxes. Canola closed lower on world economic fears and along with the weakness in Chicago Soybeans. Crude Oil and the stock market were sharply lower and this affected all oilseeds as bio fuels production could suffer. Trends are still up and weather concerns continue strong. It remains generally dry and is turning warmer in the Prairies. The showers last week have a chance to be very beneficial as the Prairies crops are in big trouble now due to previous hot and dry weather. Demand has improved a little bit with the recently weaker prices.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Canola are up with objectives of 961.00 November. Support is at 872.00, 856.00, and 844.00 November, with resistance at 949.00, 955.00, and 961.00 November. Trends in Palm Oil are up with objectives of 4340 October. Support is at 4000, 3930, and 3880 October, with resistance at 4160, 4220, and 4280 October.
Midwest Weather Forecast: Isolated showers north and west, showers and storms south and east. Temperatures should average near normal.
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