Grains Report - Tuesday, July 1

WHEAT
General Comments: All three Wheat markets closed higher after a lower opening as growing and harvesting conditions were very good. Strong yields are reported for crops in HRW and SRW areas. USDA said that planted area was 47.478 million acres and that tzhe quarterly stocks were 851 million bushels. Both were a lizttle above the average trade estimate. It is hot and dry to the south, but the north saw rains last week to support Spring Wheat development. There are still reports that the weather has reduced production potential in Ukraine and Russia. Russia is forecasting a large reduction in Wheat production for the coming year. Winter crops in the Great Plains are reported to be in good condition, and Spring Wheat crops in the northern Great Plains and into Canada are generally in good condition.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Chicago are down Support is at 521, 508 and 496 September, with resistance at 568, 572, and 582 September. Trends in Kansas City are down. Support is at 516, 504, and 492 September, with resistance at 550, 565, and 578 September. Trends in Minneapolis are mixed to down. Support is at 609, 603, and 592 September, and resistance is at 646, 655, and 665 September.

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RICE
General Comments: Rice was lower yesterday in part due to the higher than expected planted area estimate from USDA and in part due to poor demand ideas for US Rice. USDA estimated Rice planted area at 2.647 million acres and Long Grain at 2.010 million acres. Weaker Asian prices are a drag on US futures, but the US trade depends much more on South American competition that has actually been offering less. Chart trends are down on the daily charts. The cash market has been slow with mostly quiet domestic markets and average export demand. Milling quality of the Rice remains below industry standards and it takes more Rough Rice to create the grain for sale to stores and exporters. Rice has emerged in most growing areas now. Condition has been rated as good but too much rain has been reported in southern areas. India is moving to use Rice in its production of Ethanol. This could keep some Rice from India off the export market and help support prices.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends are down. Support is at 1319, 1307, and 1290 September and resistance is at 1369, 1389, and 1392 September.


CORN AND OATS
General Comments: Corn was mixed yesterday, with weakness coming in new crop months due to the planted area estimate from USDA. It estimated planted area at 95.203 million acres, a high amount although less than the average trade expectation. The stocks were 4.464 billion bushels, slightly less than trade expectations. Less heat and some showers were reported in the Midwest last week. Rier conditions are expected next week. More moderate temperatures are expected in northern areas next week. A severe drought is seen in central Nebraska and moderate drought extends east in a corridor into the Chicago area, but the drought area is shrinking. The rest of the Midwest has seen adequate or greater precipitation. Demand for Corn in world markets remains strong but has turned weaker in the last few weeks. Oats were higher on follow through buying seen in response to the StatsCan stocks and planted area reports last week and a weaker US Dollar.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Corn are down. Support is at 402, 399, and 396 September, and resistance is at 419, 425, and 432 September. Trends in Oats are mixed to up. Support is at 349, 339, and 335 September, and resistance is at 376, 382, and 388 September.


SOYBEANS
General Comments: Soybeans and Soybean Meal were mixed yesterday, with lower priced offers from Brazil in the world market important to the US price action. Soybean Oil was a little higher as the Trump administration is moving to curtail the use of Chinese used cooking oil and Brazilian tallow in the green fuel mixes for biofuels. USDA said that the quarterly stocks were 1.008 billion bushels an that planted area was 83.380 million acres. The stocks were higher than expected and were bearish. Planting were roughly in line with trade expectations. Forecasts for good growing conditions in the Midwest and as cheaper prices reported from Brazil are still being heard, and the Midwest will turn warm and wet after hot conditions were reported over the weekend. The market could remain under pressure as Brazil basis levels have been under pressure the last few weeks and prices in world markets for Brazil Soybeans are now less than those from the US. Export demand is in its seasonal doldrums. Export demand remains less for US Soybeans as China has been taking almost all the export from South America. That could change later this year as the US and China have apparently come to a trade deal.
Overnight News:
Analysis: Trends in Soybeans are down. Support is at 1023, 1005, and 983 August, and resistance is at 1047, 1055, and 1072 August. Trends in Soybean Meal are down. Support is at 271.00, 268.00, and 265.00 August, and resistance is at 287.00, 291.00, and 294.00 August. Trends in Soybean Oil are mixed. Support is at 5080, 4920, and 4710 August, with resistance at 5440, 5600, and 5720 August.


PALM OIL AND CANOLA
General Comments: Palm Oil futures were lower again today on currency considerations. Ideas that current increased production levels mean higher inventories in MPOB monthly data are still around. Canola was higher in recovery trading. Trends are down on the daily charts and are turning down on the weekly charts. The weather has generally been dry for planting and crop development in the Prairies with warm and dry weather around lately.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Canola are mixed. Support is at 683.00, 679.00, and 665.00 November, with resistance at 719.00, 740.00, and 752.00 November. Trends in Palm Oil are mixed. Support is at 3960, 3870, and 3810 September, with resistance at 4030, 4120, and 4210 September.


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Disclaimer: A Subsidiary of Price Holdings, Inc. – a Diversified Financial Services Firm. Member NIBA, NFA Past results are not necessarily indicative of future results. Investing in ...

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