WHEAT 

General Comments: Wheat markets closed lower again last week as the weekly export sales report once again showed poor demand. The USDA reports released Wednesday showed less domestic and export demand and higher than expected ending stocks levels.  The Wheat seedings report showed more than expected planted area, especially for Soft Red Winter.  It remains dry in the western Great Plains with no real relief in sight.  Ideas had been that the US will have good demand for Wheat as the rest of the northern hemisphere is short production this year but so far demand has been average or less against previous years.  Futures have been moving lower since late November because of the poor export demand and might be finding a bottom now.  Offer volumes are down in Europe.  Dry weather in southern Russia, as well as the US Great Plains and Canadian Prairies, caused a lot less production.  The lack of production has reduced the offers and Russia has announced sales quotas.  Australian crop quality should be diminished.

Overnight News: The southern Great Plains should get mostly dry conditions or isolated showers.  Temperatures should average above normal.  Northern areas should see isolated showers. Temperatures will average above normal.  The Canadian Prairies should see mostly dry conditions.  Temperatures should average above normal.

Chart Analysis:  Trends in Chicago are mixed to down with objectives of 711 and 709 March.  Support is at 736, 714, and 697 March, with resistance at 748, 758, and 771 March.  Trends in Kansas City are down with objectives of 720 and 682 March.  Support is at 732, 724, and 712 March, with resistance at 760, 777, and 793 March.  Trends in Minneapolis are down with objectives of 871 March.  Support is at 871, 851, and 845 March, and resistance is at 9895, 906, and 915 March.

Photo by James Baltz on Unsplash

RICE

General Comments: Rice was sharply higher on Friday but lower for the week. The USDA reports showed less production and imports and smaller ending stocks.  Demand was trimmed as well, but the supply was cut more.  Futures and cash market trading have been quiet until now and the cash market is still quiet but domestic mill business is around everywhere.  Many producers are not interested in selling.  Mills are showing more interest in the market as previously bought supplies start to run low.  The cash market is reported to be relatively strong as prices have held firm despite the quiet activity.

Overnight News: The Delta should get scattered showers. Temperatures should be near to above normal.

Chart Analysis: Trends are up with objectives of 1483 March.  Support is at 1451, 1443, and 1437 March and resistance is at 1483, 1488, and 1491 March.

CORN AND OATS

General Comments: Corn closed lower last week and the short term trends remain sideways. USDA showed disappointing export sales in the weekly report on Thursday and rains are on the way to help dry soils in South America.   USDA on Wednesday increased US Corn production by a little bit and did not cut Argentine and Brazilian Corn production estimates as much as it could have.  Demand was also trimmed on the domestic and export side, with domestic food, seed, and industrial demand cut.  Ending stocks were about 1.500 billion bushels. The markets heard about potential improvement in growing conditions in South America.  Support came from dry conditions continue in South America have been affecting summer Corn and Soybeans production.  However, showers are now predicted for southern Brazil and the situation there should become more stable.  Northern Brazil is expected to be drier to help with conditions there.  Most of Argentina will stay hot and dry while Brazil gets its showers.  It is also hot and dry in Paraguay and into parts of southern Brazil.

Overnight News:  Unknown destinations bought 126,000 tons of US Sorghum.

Chart Analysis: Trends in Corn are mixed.  Support is at 576, 572, and 567 March, and resistance is at 592, 601, and 608 March.  Trends in Oats are down with objectives of 580 and 505 March.  Support is at 601, 595, and 581 March, and resistance is at 622, 644, and 650 March.

SOYBEANS 

General Comments: Soybeans and Soybean Oil closed lower on the disappointing weekly export sales report and as rains are forecast to return to dry soils in South America starting this weekend.  Soybean Meal was higher on a significant rally seen Friday that was apparently triggered by a Spanish purchase of 100,000 tons.  USDA on Wednesday showed less production of Soybeans for both Brazil and Argentina than the trade had expected.  USDA showed a slight increase in production in the US and also an increase in ending stocks levels, but it was the South American estimates that caught the eyes of the market.   The rains so far this week mostly fell in northern Brazil with southern Brazil, much of Argentina, and Paraguay still mostly dry.  Showers are now in the forecast for southern Brazil this week and in parts of Argentina. The rains are timely and will help crops in these areas.  The dry weather in southern Brazil and in Paraguay and Argentina had been helping to feed the rally and the forecasts took prices lower.  Rains are expected in southern Brazil growing areas and Argentina this week.

Overnight News: Mexico bought 239,486 tons of US Soybeans. 

Chart Analysis: Trends in Soybeans are mixed.  Support is at 1364, 1355, and 1340 March, and resistance is at 1401, 1416, and 1420 March.  Trends in Soybean Meal are mixed.   Support is at 404.00, 402.00, and 398.00 March, and resistance is at 420.00 426.00, and 432.00 March.  Trends in Soybean Oil are mixed.  Support is at 5750, 5690, and 5630 March, with resistance at 5980, 6000, and 6040 March.

CANOLA AND PALM OIL 

General Comments: Palm Oil was lower last week on what appeared to be speculative long liquidation.  It was higher yesterday and moved to new contract highs.  Futures were closed today.  There are still poor production conditions in Malaysia and Indonesia.  Traders are mostly worried about demand from India who has been buying Soybean Oil in the US instead of Palm Oil from Malaysia and Indonesia and is also worried about China and its demand for Palm Oil for bio fuels.  Production conditions have been very poor and workers are not often in the fields.  Canola was lower again and price trends are starting to turn down.  The forecasts for rain are hurting Canola as well as Soybeans prices.  Farmers are bullish and reluctant to sell because of the sharp reduction in Canola production in Canada this year.  The buy side thinks that Canola is fully priced but the farmers are still holding out for more.  Chart trends are down for the daily charts and futures are at the low end of the trading range on the weekly charts after a failed move higher.

Overnight News:

Chart Analysis: Trends in Canola are down with objectives of 967.00 March.  Support is at 970.00, 945.00, and 938.00 March, with resistance at 991.00, 996.00, and 1011.00 March.  Trends in Palm Oil are mixed to up with objectives of 5090 and 5260 April.  Support is at 4840, 4760, and 4700 April, with resistance at 4990, 5060, and 5120 April.