Photo by Steven Weeks on Unsplash

WHEAT
General Comments: Wheat markets were higher last week in response to the USDA reports. USDA estimated Winter Wheat planted area at 37 million acres, from 33.3 million last year. However, current ending stocks were estimated at 567 million bushels, from 571 million last month. World ending stocks levels were increased due to big Russian production and the difficulty of moving grain from the Black Sea. The quarterly stocks report showed supplies at 1.280 billion bushels now, from 1.377 billion last year. There are still ideas of weak demand and big Russian production that should help foster price weakness in the world market. Russia offered to Egypt earlier this week at what were considered very low prices. The demand for US Wheat in international markets has been a disappointment all year and was hindered by low prices and aggressive offers from Russia. Ukraine is also looking for new business for its crops and Russia is aggressive in the world market as it looks for cash to fund the war. The demand for US Wheat still needs to show up and there is still not enough demand news to help support futures.
Overnight News: The southern Great Plains should get mostly dry conditions. Temperatures should average above normal. Northern areas should see isolated showers. Temperatures will average above normal. The Canadian Prairies should see mostly dry conditions. Temperatures should average above normal.
Chart Analysis: Trends in Chicago are mixed, Support is at 721, 714, and 702 March, with resistance at 758, 766, and 772 March. Trends in Kansas City are mixed to up with objectives of 875, 895, and 911 March. Support is at 823, 803, and 792 March, with resistance at 849, 861, and 876 March. Trends in Minneapolis are mixed. Support is at 897, 890, and 888 March, and resistance is at 915, 938, and 942 March.

RICE
General Comments: Rice was higher in response to the USDA reports. USDA estimated US production at 160.4 million cwt this month, from 164.3 million last month. Ending stocks were estimated at 32.1 million cwt, from 38.1 million last month. Long Grain production was estimated at `18.2 million cwt, from 131.7 million last month. Ending stocks were estimated at 21.8 million cwt, from 27.3 million last month. World ending stocks are now estimated at 169.98 million tons, from 168.64 million last month and are now estimated at 61.98 million tons with China out of the equation, from 60.64 million last month. The US Dollar was sharply lower and world petroleum prices were higher last week to help Rice rally. There is not much going on in the domestic market right now. Most Rice farmers were not paying much attention to the market. Demand in general has been slow to moderate for Rice for both exports and domestic uses.
Overnight News: The Delta should get isolated showers. Temperatures should be near normal.
Chart Analysis: Trends are up with objectives of 1854 and 1901 March. Support is at 1805, 1784, and 1760 March and resistance is at 1822, 1832, and 18537 March.

CORN AND OATS
General Comments: Corn and Oats closed higher last week in response to the USDA reports that were considered bullish for prices. USDA cut production to just 13,730 billion bushels, from 13.930 billion last year. Both markets remain in trading ranges on the weekly charts. Harvested acreage was cut to account for the loss. Yields were up 1.0 bushels per acre to 173.3 bu/acre. Ending stocks were cut to 1.242 billion bushels for the US and 296.4 million tons for the world. Quarterly stocks showed that current supplies are 10.809 billion bushels, from 11.641 billion last year. Brazil and Argentina estimates were about unchanged. Demand for US Corn remains muted even as forecasts for only light rains or dry conditions in southern Brazil and Argentina were seen. Brazil has been hanging on for its Summer crop but Argentina has suffered through some extreme drought. The Brazil Winter crop is harvested. Weak demand overall for US Corn remains a big problem for the market. There are increasing concerns about demand with the Chinese economic problems caused by the lockdowns creating the possibility of less demand as South America has much better crops this year to compete with the US for sales. China is now moving rapidly to open the economy and allow people to move around with no lockdowns so the demand could start to improve. The improvement might take some time as the Chinese people get Covid, but they should be past this episode in a few weeks and demand might start to improve at that time. South American prices are currently close to or above than those in the US.
Overnight News: Colombia bought 150,000 tons of US Corn.
Chart Analysis: Trends in Corn are mixed to up with objectives of 675 and 681 March. Support is at 664, 659, and 649 March, and resistance is at 677, 680, and 686 March. Trends in Oats are mixed to up with objectives of 371 and 391 March. Support is at 351, 346, and 335 March, and resistance is at 363, 368, and 377 March.

SOYBEANS
General Comments: Soybeans were higher last week in response to the USDA reports. Soybean Meal also closed higher and made new highs for the move, but Soybean Oil closed a little lower in range trading. USDA showed production at 4.276 billion bushels, from 4.346 billion last year. USDA cut yields a bit and also cut harvested area. US ending stocks were less than expected at 210 million bushels, from 220 million last month. The quarterly stocks report showed that Soybeans supplies are currently at 1.280 billion bushels, from 1.377 billion last year. Brazil and Argentina production estimates were left unchanged. Soybean Meal closed higher on reports that Argentine Meal basis was at record highs. Farmers are not selling many Soybeans in the US as many are waiting for a rally to sell into. Drier weather is the forecast for this week for southern Brazil and Argentina that could stress crops in both areas again, Current forecasts suggest that the showers will be few and far between and not able to make a real dent in the drought. Central and northern Brazil remain in very good condition with scattered showers reported. Production potential for the Brazil is called very strong even with potential problems and losses in the south. Even so, production of less than 150 million tons is possible now. Argentine production ideas continue to drop with the drought as planting is delayed and the crops already in the ground are stressed. Production estimates are now closer to 40 million tons than original projections near 50 million. There was news that China has started to ease Covid restrictions after some demonstrations by the Chinese people. Ideas that Chinese demand will improve, but this could take some time as a very large part of the population now has Covid. This has delayed a robust economic return for the country. Export demand for the US is on pace for what is needed to meet USDA projections.
Overnight News: Unknown destinations bought 119,000 tons of US Soybens.
Chart Analysis: Trends in Soybeans are mixed to up with objectives of 1537, 1557, and 1574 March. Support is at 1514, 1500, and 1487 March, and resistance is at 1540, 1552, and 1564 March. Trends in Soybean Meal are mixed to up with objectives of 488.00 and 508.00 March. Support is at 471.00, 466.00, and 457.00 March, and resistance is at 485.00, 487.00, and 490.00 March. Trends in Soybean Oil are mixed. Support is at 6190, 6150, and 6120 March, with resistance at 6280, 6450, and 6520 March.

CANOLA AND PALM OIL
General Comments: Palm Oil closed lower last week as demand ideas remain uncertain and as the production uncertainty continues. Futures rallied a bit yesterday but made new lows for the move today. Current forecasts call for the rainy season to end soon and for fieldwork and harvest conditions to improve. Indonesia will now permit exporters to sell six tons for every tons sold internally instead of eight as before. Ideas of better demand and less production are still around, with production falling due to seasonal factors. Hopes for improved demand from China were reported. China has tried to relax some Covid restrictions so that the economy can start to function again. However, new outbreaks of the virus are being reported and infection rates are rapidly increasing. Ideas are that supply and production will be strong, but demand ideas are now weakening and the market will continue to look to the private data for clues on demand and the direction of the futures market. There are still reports of too much rain in Malaysia. Canola was lower again last week. Demand for export has been less. Farmers are holding tight to harvested supplies. Reports indicate that domestic demand has been strong due to favorable crush margins. Production was much improved this year on better weather during the Summer.
Chart Analysis: Trends in Canola are down with objectives of 822.00 March. Support is at 831.00, 810.00, and 800.00 March, with resistance at 852.00, 863.00, and 874.00 March. Trends in Palm Oil are down with objectives of 3740 and 3500 April. Support is at 3840, 3820, and 3760 April, with resistance at 4000, 4040, and 4130 April.
DJ Malaysia Palm Oil Exports for Jan 1-15 Fell 28.5%, SGS Says
Malaysia’s palm oil exports during the January 1-15 period are estimated down 28.5% on month at 453,771 metric tons, cargo surveyor SGS (Malaysia) Bhd. said Tuesday.

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