WHEAT 

General Comments: Wheat markets traded lower early in the day, then rallied for a very firm close as tensions remain hot in Ukraine. The US said again that Russia could invade at any time and maybe later this week and that Putin has given the army orders to invade and take the Ukraine state back into the orbit of Russia. Ukrainians have no interest in living under Russian occupation so the war could be deadly and very costly to both sides. Russia and Ukraine are both major Wheat exporters so the Wheat market could be damaged. It remains dry in the western Great Plains but some precipitation is expected. Ideas had been that the US will have good demand for Wheat as the rest of the northern hemisphere is short production this year but so far demand has been average or less against previous years. Dry weather in southern Russia, as well as the US Great Plains and Canadian Prairies, caused a lot less production.

Overnight News: The southern Great Plains should get mostly dry conditions. Temperatures should average below normal. Northern areas should see mostly dry conditions. Temperatures will average below normal. The Canadian Prairies should see mostly dry conditions. Temperatures should average below normal.

Chart Analysis: Trends in Chicago are mixed to up with objectives of 814 and 852 March. Support is at 778, 765, and 761 March, with resistance at 814, 824, and 831 March. Trends in Kansas City are mixed to up with objectives of 880 March. Support is at 803, 792, and 843 March, with resistance at 844, 849, and 871 March. Trends in Minneapolis are mixed to up with objectives of 992 and 1005 March. Support is at 955, 945, and 934 March, and resistance is at 972, 979, and 991 March.

Photo by Sandy Ravaloniaina on Unsplash

RICE:                                               

General Comments: Rice closed a little lower yesterday on what appeared to be some speculative selling in response to bearish chart patterns. It has been a demand led market recently and the weekly export sales report last week was very strong. The cash market is showing that domestic mill business is around everywhere but not real active anywhere. Producer sales are reported to have been way ahead of average early in the marketing year so stocks on hand in first hands are reported to be lower than normal. Mills are showing more interest in the market as previously bought supplies start to run low. The cash market is reported to be relatively strong in moderately active trading as prices have held firm. Ideas are that there is very little Rice left in producer control.

Overnight News:  The Delta should get mostly dry conditions. Temperatures should be below normal.

Chart Analysis:  Trends are mixed. Support is at 1482, 1465, and 1461 March and resistance is at 1525, 1552, and 1560 March.

CORN AND OATS

General Comments: Corn closed higher after trading lower early in the day in reaction to the South American production estimates that have been dropping due to hot and dry weather in Argentina, Paraguay, and southern Brazil. The South American agricultural areas got an inch or less of precipitation last week and are now turning hot and dry again. Crop losses are becoming more and more of a reality for the Corn market right now. The Soybeans harvest farther north is being somewhat delayed due to wet weather and this might affect planting of the  Safrinha crop in Brazil. Planted area there as well as in the US is in question due to the high costs and the lack of availability of inputs for growing a successful crop.

Overnight News:  

Chart Analysis: Trends in Corn are mixed to up with objectives of 678 and 720 March. Support is at 638, 625, and 623 March, and resistance is at 657, 663, and 668 March. Trends in Oats are mixed. Support is at 750, 738, and 735 March, and resistance is at 765, 771, and 778 March.

DJ Brazil Soybean Harvest Advancing Amid Intermittent Rain — Market Talk 

1431 ET – Brazilian farmers advanced with their soybean harvesting for the 2021-2022 growing season, with some delays because of rain, according to agricultural consultancy AgRural. As of Feb. 10, harvesting had been completed on 24% of the estimated area planted with the oilseeds, up from 16% a week earlier and compared with 9% on the same date a year earlier, AgRural said. In Mato Grosso state, Brazil’s biggest producer of soybeans, frequent rains are pushing farmers to get the crop out of the field as quickly as possible because of concerns about quality and excess moisture, the group said. The drought and hot weather in southern states is causing low productivity and damage to crops in some areas, but other parts of those states are showing better productivity, the consultancy said. Brazilian crop agency Conab last week cut its forecast for the 2021-2022 harvest to 120.5 million metric tons from 140.5 million metric tons because of the drought in the south. (jeffrey.lewis@wsj.com)

SOYBEANS 

General Comments: Soybeans and Soybean Meal were lower yesterday as there has not been any real news for the market since Conab in Brazil and the Rosario exchange in Argentina released sharply lower Soybeans production estimates.Speculators were early sellers and then became buyers.It is possible that the market topped out on Thursday at least for the short term.The market had been supported on what appeared to be speculative buying in response the South American weather.The South American weather remained difficult.Mostly hot and dry conditions are expected for the next week after a few showers in most areas last week.It will stay very wet in central and northern parts of Brazil.

Overnight News:  Mexico bought 1201,000 tons of US Soybeans 

Chart Analysis:Trends in Soybeans are mixed.Support is at 1552, 1526, and 1497 March, and resistance is at 1600, 1612, and 1624 March.Trends in Soybean Meal are up with objectives of 477.00 March. Support is at 431.00, 420.00, and 405.00 March, and resistance is at 462.00 470.00, and 478.00 March.Trends in Soybean Oil are mixed.Support is at 6460, 6390, and 6300 March, with resistance at 6660, 6690, and 6740 March.

CANOLA AND PALM OIL 

General Comments:  Palm Oil was higher yesterdau after reports of reduced production and stocks for Malaysia.Demand in Malaysia could improve soon as Indonesia is expected to keep most Palm Oil at home.Indonesia is once again making moves to cut the availability of Palm Oil for export as it seeks to keep more at home for bio fuels purposes. There are still poor production conditions in Malaysia and Indonesia.Traders are mostly worried about demand from India who has been buying Soybean Oil in the US instead of Palm Oil from Malaysia and Indonesia and is also worried about China and its demand for Palm Oil for bio fuels.Canola was lower along with Chicago.Chart trends are mixed but the market acts weak.

Overnight News:

Chart Analysis: Trends in Canola are mixed to down with objectives of 972.00 and 937.00 March.Support is at 1001.00, 998.00, and 983.00 March, with resistance at 1018.00, 1027.00, and 1033.00 March.Trends in Palm Oil are mixed to up with objectives of 5710 April. Support is at 5620, 5470, and 5380 April, with resistance at 5710, 5750, and 5800 April.